2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season to be One of the Most Active on Record with 23 Named Storms and Five Major Hurricanes Predicted by Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project Team.
Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project Team forecasted 23 named storms and five major hurricanes for the season that starts June 1.
Most active on record
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be one of the most active on record, with an extremely high number of storms predicted. The Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project team has forecasted 23 named storms and five major hurricanes for the season that starts June 1.
The forecast includes the highest number of hurricanes ever predicted in an April forecast by Colorado State since the team began issuing predictions in 1995.
Colorado State hurricane forecaster Phil Klotzbach predicts 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes for the season that starts June 1.
The models show a pretty rapid transition over to La Niña
Most storm activity typically happens between mid-August and mid-October.
Accuracy
El Niño is expected to become La Niña, which usually enhances storms.
Atlantic Ocean water is record-warm in most areas, which also could enhance storms.
Deception
(50%)
The article is deceptive in that it presents a forecast for the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes without providing any context or explanation as to why this particular season is expected to be so active. The author also uses sensationalist language such as 'extremely active' when describing the predicted storm activity, which could lead readers to believe that there is a higher chance of these events occurring than what has been historically seen.
The article states that this forecast covers storms that form in the Atlantic basin. However, it does not provide any information on why this particular region was chosen for analysis or if other regions were also considered.
Fallacies
(85%)
The article contains several examples of informal fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the predictions of other organizations without providing any evidence or reasoning for their own prediction. Additionally, the author makes a false dilemma by stating that there are only two options: either it will be an active season or not at all, when in reality there could be varying levels of activity. The article also contains inflammatory rhetoric with phrases such as 'extremely active' and 'record warm Atlantic water temperatures'.
The forecast includes the highest number of hurricanes ever predicted in an April forecast by Colorado State since the team began issuing predictions in 1995.
Everything is leaning toward an extremely active season: still record warm Atlantic water temperatures and a pretty rapid transition over to La Niña,
If Bill Gray knew we were forecasting this, he'd think we'd gone nuts,
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be one of the most active on record.
El Niño is expected to become La Niña, which usually enhances storms.
Atlantic Ocean water is record-warm in most areas, which also could enhance storms.
Accuracy
The Atlantic Basin water in early spring correlates to a hurricane season's activity.
Deception
(80%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author claims that El Niño will become La Niña which usually enhances storms but fails to mention that it also causes drought and heat waves. Secondly, the author states that Atlantic Ocean water is record-warm in most areas which could enhance storms but does not provide any evidence or scientific studies to support this claim. Thirdly, the article uses sensationalism by stating that 2024 will be one of the most active on record without providing any context or comparison with previous years. Lastly, the author quotes a source (Colorado State University) but fails to disclose their expertise or qualifications in predicting hurricane seasons.
The article claims that El Niño usually enhances storms but does not mention that it also causes drought and heat waves.
Fallacies
(85%)
The article contains several fallacies. The first is an appeal to authority when it states that the Colorado State University tropical meteorology project team forecasts a record number of storms and hurricanes for the 2024 season. This statement implies that their predictions are accurate, but without any evidence or data provided to support this claim.
The article contains several fallacies.
Bias
(85%)
The article is biased towards the idea that there will be a very active hurricane season in 2024. The author uses language such as 'most active on record' and 'highest number of storms and hurricanes' to create an alarmist tone. Additionally, the author cites sources that support their claim without providing any context or analysis.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be one of the most active on record
This is the highest number of storms and hurricanes The CSU team has forecast in any of their April hurricane season outlooks since 1996.
Experts have predicted an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Researchers predict a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts around June 1 and finishes November 30, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
Warm sea surface temperatures combined with a warm tropical Atlantic all intensified by La Niña conditions set high expectations for an extremely active period.
Researchers predicted a 62% chance of a category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall on the continental U.S. coastline, an increase from the average prediction of 43%. Along the East Coast including Florida peninsula, probability jumped to almost 20%, while along Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle it increased by more than10%.
Seasonal forecast predictions are based on statistical and dynamical models that researchers said can fail in some years.
Accuracy
The forecast includes the highest number of hurricanes ever predicted in an April forecast by Colorado State since the team began issuing predictions in 1995.
El Niño is expected to become La Niña, which usually enhances storms.
Deception
(50%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author uses sensationalist language such as 'extremely active' to create a sense of urgency and fear in readers without providing any context or evidence for this claim. Secondly, the article quotes experts predicting an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean without disclosing that these predictions are based on statistical models that can fail in some years. Thirdly, the author uses selective reporting by only mentioning areas where there will be a higher probability of major hurricane landfall while ignoring other regions such as Europe or Asia which may also experience significant weather events.
The article claims an 'extremely active' 2024 Atlantic hurricane season without providing any context or evidence for this claim.
The article quotes experts predicting an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean without disclosing that these predictions are based on statistical models that can fail in some years.
The author uses selective reporting by only mentioning areas where there will be a higher probability of major hurricane landfall while ignoring other regions such as Europe or Asia which may also experience significant weather events.
Fallacies
(85%)
The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the predictions of experts from Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project without providing any evidence or context for their expertise. Additionally, the author makes a false dilemma by stating that there is only one option for hurricane scale (Category 6) when in fact other options exist and are being considered. The article also contains inflammatory rhetoric with phrases such as 'extremely active' and 'well above-average probability'.
The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the predictions of experts from Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project without providing any evidence or context for their expertise.
The article contains inflammatory rhetoric with phrases such as 'extremely active' and 'well above-average probability.'
The author makes a false dilemma by stating that there is only one option for hurricane scale (Category 6) when in fact other options exist and are being considered.
Bias
(85%)
The article contains several examples of bias. The author uses language that dehumanizes and demonizes those who disagree with the predictions made by experts. For example, the phrase 'extremely active' is used to describe a hurricane season as if it were something negative or harmful.
> 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
researchers predicted a 62% chance of a category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall on the continental U.S. coastline
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Conflicts
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Interest (0%)
The author of the article has a conflict of interest on all topics provided.
.
/4:37 PM EDT / CBS News.
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (0%)
The author has a conflict of interest on the topic of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. The article is published by CBS News which is owned by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an agency that plays a significant role in predicting and monitoring hurricanes.
An early forecast from one set of experts sees an above-average hurricane season that may rival the busiest years on record.
One such expert, Phil Klotzbach, a researcher at Colorado State University, said in his team's annual forecast on Thursday that they expected a remarkably busy season of 23 named storms.
It's the Colorado State researchers' biggest April prediction ever by a healthy margin.
Accuracy
The highest number of storms and hurricanes the CSU team has forecast in any of their April hurricane season outlooks since 1996 is this year's record April forecast.
Researchers predict a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
Deception
(50%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author uses sensationalist language such as 'daunting' and 'alarming' to create a sense of urgency and fear around the upcoming hurricane season without providing any context or perspective on what constitutes a daunting or alarming season. Secondly, the article quotes experts who predict an above-average hurricane season but fails to disclose that these predictions are based on computer models and not actual observations. This lack of transparency makes it difficult for readers to understand the basis for these predictions and raises questions about their reliability. Finally, the author uses selective reporting by focusing solely on the predicted number of storms without providing any information about their potential impact or damage.
The author uses selective reporting by focusing solely on the predicted number of storms without providing any information about their potential impact or damage
The article quotes experts who predict an above-average hurricane season but fails to disclose that these predictions are based on computer models
The article uses sensationalist language such as 'daunting' and 'alarming'
Fallacies
(85%)
The article contains an appeal to authority fallacy by citing the opinions of experts without providing any evidence or reasoning for their predictions. The author also uses inflammatory rhetoric when describing the potential impact of a busy hurricane season.
> A key area of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes form is already abnormally warm, much warmer than an ideal swimming pool temperature of about 80 degrees and on the cusp of feeling more like warm bathtub water. <br> These conditions were described by Benjamin Kirtman as
Bias
(85%)
The article contains examples of religious bias and monetary bias. The author uses language that dehumanizes those who believe in climate change denialism, which is a form of religious bias. Additionally, the article mentions funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which could be seen as an example of monetary bias.
The article mentions funding from NOAA
The author uses language that dehumanizes those who believe in climate change denialism
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Conflicts
Of
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None Found At Time Of
Publication
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
Judson Jones has a conflict of interest on the topic of hurricane season as he is affiliated with Colorado State University and Phil Klotzbach who are known for their research in this area. Additionally, Judson Jones also has a financial tie to Benjamin Kirtman who works at the University of Miami.
Judson Jones is an associate professor at Colorado State University where he studies climate science and hurricanes with Phil Klotzbach.
Top forecasters from Colorado State University expect an extremely active hurricane season
Phil Klotzbach predicts 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes for the season that starts June 1.
Colorado State's tropical meteorology project team forecasted 23 storms and five of them will reach Category 3 status or stronger in their first outlook for 2024 released Thursday.
Accuracy
The forecast includes the highest number of hurricanes ever predicted in an April forecast by Colorado State since the team began issuing predictions in 1995.
Colorado State hurricane forecaster Phil Klotzbach predicts 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes for the season that starts June 1.
The Atlantic produced seven hurricanes, average for a typical season despite El Niño last year.
Deception
(80%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, it uses sensationalism by stating that the hurricane season will be 'bad' without providing any context or evidence to support this claim. Secondly, it quotes Phil Klotzbach as predicting a very active hurricane season with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. However, it does not disclose that these predictions are based on models and temperatures which have been consistently inaccurate in the past. Thirdly, it quotes Robbie Berg stating that nothing surprises him anymore without providing any context or evidence to support this claim.
It does not disclose that these predictions are based on models and temperatures which have been consistently inaccurate in the past.
The article uses sensationalism by stating that the hurricane season will be 'bad' without providing any context or evidence to support this claim.
Fallacies
(85%)
The article contains several fallacies. Firstly, the author uses an appeal to authority by citing a source without providing any context or information about their qualifications. Secondly, there is inflammatory rhetoric used in the quote from Phil Klotzbach when he says 'we're coming out with a very aggressive forecast'. This statement could be perceived as alarmist and exaggerated. Thirdly, there are dichotomous depictions of hurricane seasons being either 'extremely active' or 'milder', which oversimplifies the complexity of weather patterns. Lastly, there is an informal fallacy used in the quote from Robbie Berg when he says 'nothing surprises me anymore'. This statement implies that all forecasts are wrong and ignores any potential uncertainties in predicting hurricane seasons.
Top forecasters from Colorado State University say they expect an “extremely active” hurricane season, predicting the highest number of storms since they began issuing predictions in 1995, USA Today Network reports.
A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, and seven spinning into hurricanes, based on weather records from 1991 to 2020.
Bias
(75%)
The article contains a statement from Phil Klotzbach that is biased towards the extreme activity of named storms this season. He predicts an extremely active hurricane season with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes which is higher than any other year since they began issuing predictions in 1995.
We're coming out with a very aggressive forecast: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes,
