Inflation Eases Slightly in April: A Relief for Consumers and the Federal Reserve
According to recent data released by the Labor Department, both overall and core inflation rates decreased slightly in April compared to March. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% from the previous month, down from 0.4% in February and March.
The annual rate of inflation for all items fell to 3.4%, a decrease from the previous month's rate of 3.5%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by an annual rate of 3.6%, down from the previous month's increase of 3.8%. This marks the lowest annual increase in core inflation since early 2021.
Grocery Prices Fall for First Time in a Year
In a separate report, the Labor Department announced that grocery prices fell for the first time in a year, with food at home prices decreasing by 0.2%.
This decrease follows several months of plateauing and rising grocery prices due to supply chain constraints and the impact of the Ukraine war. Despite this relief for consumers, housing and gas prices continued to drive overall inflation rates higher.
Impact on Financial Markets
The latest US inflation data has reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve policy easing. Stocks climbed in Australia, South Korea, and mainland China following the news.
However, some analysts caution against getting too carried away by the slight decrease in inflation rates. Inflation remains inconsistent with the Fed's target of 2%, and rate cut expectations have shifted significantly.
Inflation remains inconsistent with the Fed’s target
Rate cut expectations have shifted, with a September rate cut fully priced in and a second cut expected by December
USD/JPY is extending its losses
Accuracy
Latest US inflation data reinforced bets for Federal Reserve policy easing
Deception
(80%)
The author expresses his opinion that the reader should not get too carried away by the lower than expected CPI data. He also implies that the market may be overreacting to this data. This is an example of editorializing and pontification.
So don’t get too carried away
The US CPI data was slightly better than expected, but don’t get too carried away