Biden's lead over Donald Trump remained relatively stable in some polls after the debate, but shifted in others
CNN National Poll and FiveThirtyEight Average showed Biden's lead remaining unchanged or modestly increasing respectively
New York Times/Siena College Poll showed a significant shift towards Trump with a 6-point deficit for Biden among likely voters
Polling is an imprecise measurement and should be taken with a grain of salt
President Joe Biden's debate performance led to concerns among Democrats and speculation about his future in the race
President Joe Biden's re-election campaign has faced significant challenges following a rough debate performance, leading to concerns among Democrats and speculation about his future in the race. According to various polls, Biden's lead over former President Donald Trump has remained relatively stable since the debate, with some shifts in specific polls.
Despite calls from some Democrats for Biden to drop out of the race, he has maintained that he will continue his campaign. However, many within his party fear that his continued candidacy could make it easier for Trump to secure victory and potentially give Republicans control of both the House and Senate.
Here's a closer look at the polling data following Biden's debate performance:
New York Times/Siena College Poll: This poll showed a significant shift in favor of Trump, with Biden's deficit increasing from 4 points among likely voters to 6 points.
CNN National Poll: Biden's lead over Trump remained unchanged at 6 points after the debate.
FiveThirtyEight Average: The average of polls showed a modest gain for Trump, with his lead increasing from a dead heat on debate day to around two points as of July 12.
It's important to note that polling is an imprecise measurement and subject to various sources of uncertainty. While it can provide valuable insights into public opinion, it should be taken with a grain of salt and not be the sole determinant of political decisions.
It's unclear if the debate performance was the sole cause of any shifts in public opinion, as there are many factors that can influence polling results
The New York Times/Siena College Poll may be an outlier as it showed a larger shift towards Trump compared to other polls
President Joe Biden had a rough two weeks after a debate performance that caused concern among Democrats.
Biden's campaign characterized the post-debate polling dip as marginal and not significant.
Accuracy
Most observers agreed that Biden needed to win the debate to reframe concerns about his age.
Deception
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Fallacies
(75%)
The article does not commit any formal logical fallacies but it does engage in inflammatory rhetoric and appeals to authority. It uses loaded language such as 'feeding frenzy' and 'rough two weeks' to describe the situation around President Biden's debate performance, which is inflammatory. Additionally, it references the reactions of 'concerned watchers, commentators and now Democratic electeds' calling for Biden to bow out of the race. This appeal to authority from various sources within the political sphere adds credibility to this claim but does not necessarily make it true.
]In case you haven't heard, President Joe Biden's had a rough two weeks.
Listening to others — including the Biden campaign — the drop really isn't so steep. They've mostly characterized the post-debate polling dip as marginal, something that the president has plenty of time to put in the rearview mirror.
Most Democrats want Biden to drop out based on his debate performance.
Biden and Trump are in a dead heat in the contest for the popular vote.
Biden's job approval rating is at 57%.
Accuracy
Most Democrats want Biden to end his reelection campaign based on his performance in the presidential debate two weeks ago.
Biden and former president Donald Trump are in a dead heat in the contest for the popular vote with both candidates receiving 46% support among registered voters.
The share of Americans saying Biden is more mentally sharp than Trump dropped from 23% to 14%.
Most Americans say both Biden and Trump are too old to serve another term as president.
Deception
(30%)
The article contains selective reporting as it only mentions polls that show Biden trailing Trump after the debate, while ignoring polls that show Biden leading. It also uses emotional manipulation by stating 'Many Democrats fear that, if Biden continues his candidacy, Trump could have an easier path to victory and that Republicans could end up holding majorities in both the House and Senate.' This statement is designed to elicit an emotional response from readers without providing any factual evidence.
Many Democrats fear that, if Biden continues his candidacy, Trump could have an easier path to victory and that Republicans could end up holding majorities in both the House and Senate.
The poll finds Biden and former president Donald Trump in a dead heat in the contest for the popular vote, with both candidates receiving 46 percent support among registered voters.
Yet last month’s debate, which most Americans say they watched or followed news about, appears to have heightened concerns about Biden’s age and fitness for office.
Fallacies
(80%)
The authors make several statements in the article that could be considered appeals to authority. They mention that 'most Americans' watched or followed news about the debate and that 'Americans' have certain views on Biden and Trump. However, they do not provide any data or evidence to support these claims, making it an appeal to unspecified authority. Additionally, they state that '13 Democrats in the House and Senate had called for Biden to drop out' but later mention that one of them has since softened his position. This inconsistency could be seen as a form of ambiguity or vagueness, which is a type of informal fallacy. The authors also use inflammatory language when describing the debate as a 'political debacle for Biden' and stating that 'growing numbers say neither candidate has the sharpness or physical health needed for the presidency.' This language is not objective and could be seen as an attempt to sway readers' opinions, which is a form of bias.
]most Americans[/ have certain views], [
Bias
(80%)
The authors express no overt bias in the article, but they do present data that could be interpreted as unfavorable to President Biden. They report that most Democrats want Biden to drop out of the presidential race based on his performance in a debate, and that a majority of Americans believe he should step aside. The authors also note that some Democrats fear that if Biden continues in the race, it could make it easier for Trump to win and give Republicans control of both the House and Senate. These statements do not necessarily reflect bias on the part of the authors, but they could be interpreted as critical of Biden. Additionally, there is a disproportionate number of quotes in the article that reflect a position against Biden continuing in the race.
13 Democrats in the House and Senate had called for Biden to drop out, though one, Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), has since softened his position.
Many Democrats fear that, if Biden continues his candidacy, Trump could have an easier path to victory and that Republicans could end up holding majorities in both the House and Senate.
Most Democrats nationwide say that President Biden should end his reelection campaign based on his performance in the presidential debate two weeks ago, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.
President Joe Biden had a rough two weeks after a debate performance that caused concern among Democrats.
Biden's lead over Trump in CNN’s national poll remained unchanged at 6 points after the debate.
The biggest shift was seen in the New York Times/Siena College poll, where Biden’s deficit increased from 4 points among likely voters to 6 points.
Accuracy
]President Joe Biden was trailing former President Donald Trump by 1 to 2 points more in some surveys after his debate debacle, but the movement is still within the margin of error.[
Biden’s lead over Trump in CNN’s national poll remained unchanged at 6 points after the debate.
Deception
(50%)
The article makes editorializing statements and uses emotional manipulation by implying that the poll numbers could hinge on small margins in a polarized and divided politics. The author also engages in selective reporting by only mentioning the slight movement in polls after Biden's debate performance, while ignoring any potential factors that may have influenced those same polls before the debate.
Are most voters locked into their perceptions of both Biden and Trump, which explains why seismic events have barely budged the poll numbers?
But the polling raises important questions: Why weren’t they panicked before the debate, when the numbers were already showing Biden facing a difficult road to re-election?
That’s the polling takeaway 11 days after Biden’s disastrous debate performance as a handful of Democrats have called for him to exit the race and a defiant Biden insists he’s remaining in the campaign.
The polling takeaway 11 days after Biden’s disastrous debate performance as a handful of Democrats have called for him to exit the race and a defiant Biden insists he’s remaining in the campaign.
Fallacies
(85%)
The article contains a few informal fallacies and appeals to authority. It also uses inflammatory rhetoric by referring to Biden's debate performance as a 'disastrous debate debacle'. Additionally, there is an example of dichotomous depiction by suggesting that the campaign could hinge on the margins of error in polls, implying a false dichotomy between two extreme outcomes.
disastrous debate debacle
already showing Biden facing a difficult road to re-election?
Are national Democrats and progressive media voices simply catching up to where many voters had previously been about his age and health?
Bias
(95%)
The article does not demonstrate any clear bias towards a specific political party or ideology. However, the author does use language that implies a sense of unease and concern from Democrats about Biden's performance in the debate and his overall electability. This could be seen as implicitly biased towards the Democratic Party, but it is not overtly biased or unreasonable.
But the polling raises important questions: Why weren’t they panicked before the debate, when the numbers were already showing Biden facing a difficult road to re-election?
National Democrats are panicked after Biden’s debate performance and its aftermath
