Bitcoin Price Could Reach $200,000 by End of Century with ETF Approval Driving Inflows and Gains

Unique Points

• Bitcoin surged as high as 9% Monday
• Open interest on futures contracts increased by over 8% in the past day and suggests traders opened more bets after a liquidation event. Liquidations can signal local tops or bottoms of steep price moves.
• Thirteen proposed ETFs are awaiting SEC approval, with some issuers charging no fees for the first six months or $5 billion in assets under management (AUM).
• Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025

Accuracy

No Contradictions at Time Of Publication

Deception (100%)

None Found At Time Of Publication

Fallacies (75%)

• The SEC officials have sent comments to a set of prospective issuers addressing minor details in the amended S-1 forms whose filings are expected on Tuesday.

Bias (85%)

• Traders betting against higher bitcoin (BTC) prices lost over $100 million in the past 24 hours as expectations of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval in the U.S. neared the finish line.

Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

• $13 billion worth of assets under management (AUM) in six months with no fees
• .8% increase in open interest over 24 hours
• final decision on approvals or denials expected on Wednesday
• SEC officials sent comments to prospective issuers addressing minor details in amended S-1 forms

Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

• $13 billion worth of assets under management (AUM) in six months with no fees
• .5 billion AUM for the first-ever bitcoin ETF in the US.
• .8% increase in open interest over 24 hours

Unique Points

• Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of next year
• If ETF-related inflows materialize as expected, an end-of-year level closer to $174,839 is possible
• Traders betting against higher bitcoin prices lost over $10 million in the past 24 hours

Accuracy

• Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of next year as ETF approval drives huge inflows

Deception (100%)

None Found At Time Of Publication

Fallacies (85%)

Bias (100%)

None Found At Time Of Publication

Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

• Filip De Mott mentions Standard Chartered's involvement with ETF approval saying 'Standard Chartered has been working closely with regulators to help bring Bitcoin-based exchange traded funds (ETFs) to market. The bank believes that this will drive huge inflows into the cryptocurrency.'
• Filip De Mott writes 'Standard Chartered has been a vocal supporter of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The bank believes that digital assets will play an increasingly important role in financial markets, particularly as more institutional investors enter the space.'
• Filip De Mott writes 'The price of Bitcoin could soar 344% by the end of next year, according to Standard Chartered's latest research report.'

Unique Points

• Bitcoin's price action in 2023 was driven by a rebirth in interest in spot bitcoin ETFs
• BlackRock unexpectedly filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for an ETF that tracks Bitcoin, which notched over 100% gains last year
• Manipulation is typically a concern for ETFs that track indexes because there can be a difference between the benchmark asset prices and daily disclosures provided by ETF managers, which could be exploited by those with inside information of the indexes

Accuracy

• A denial of approval is still possible for a Bitcoin ETF by SEC Chair Gary Gensler
• Because Bitcoin is decentralized, its dollar value is often calculated by averaging current going price on trusted exchanges. However, even established exchanges can drive crypto prices up or down deliberately or accidentally with large trades and open arbitrage opportunities
• BlackRock was the first to suggest a surveillance-sharing agreement via crypto exchanges to assuage SEC fears, but not everyone is convinced it will work
• Putting aside privacy concerns of increased market surveillance, there's also the broad question around who truly benefits from Bitcoin ETFs. Exchange-traded funds often raise the cost of their underlying backing assets which could impact long term useability and adoption of Bitcoin
• Bitcoin ETF is a share representing BTC that could end up in millions peoples 401(k)s via a product managed by the world's largest asset manager using coins custodied by an outside company (Coinbase is the leading custodian to U.S. ETFs). It's not a gateway to adoption, but rather corruption of idea that through self-custody one can take control over their own money
• There are unanswered questions about what growing influence of Wall Street in Bitcoin means for protocol and whether influx of money will change realities of Core development or bitcoin mining

Deception (75%)

• The sentence 'Is crypto ready for that?' is deceptive because it implies that a bitcoin ETF would legitimize an industry rife with fraud when in fact many investors are already aware of these risks and have taken steps to mitigate them.
• The sentence 'It remains an open question whether the SEC will approve one or many of the dozens of open spot bitcoin ETF applications, though a denial is still in the cards.' is deceptive because it implies that there are only two possibilities: either Bitcoin ETFs will be approved by the SEC or they won't. In reality, there may be other outcomes as well.
• The sentence 'Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action last year was driven, in large measure, by a rebirth in interest in spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).' is deceptive because it implies that the rise of Bitcoin ETFs caused the increase in Bitcoin's price when there were many other factors at play.
• The sentence 'BlackRock’s unexpected filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in June drove attention to the asset, which was one of the year’s best performers notching over 100% gains.' is deceptive because it implies that BlackRock's filing caused Bitcoin ETFs to become popular when they had already been around for years and were gaining popularity before this event.

Fallacies (75%)

• SEC Chair Gary Gensler has held out approving a Bitcoin ETF ever since the Winklevoss twins first filed to launch one in 2013
• Better Markets claims that a Bitcoin ETF would legitimize an industry rife with fraud.
• The author uses dichotomous depiction by describing Bitcoin ETFs as both a signal of maturity and an industry rife with fraud.

Bias (85%)

• The article contains several examples of bias. The author uses language that dehumanizes those who hold a different view on the topic and implies they are extreme or unreasonable. They also use loaded terms such as 'bear case' to suggest one side is inherently negative while ignoring other perspectives.
• The author uses language that dehumanizes those who hold a different view on the topic and implies they are extreme or unreasonable. They also use loaded terms such as 'bear case' to suggest one side is inherently negative while ignoring other perspectives.

Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

Unique Points

• Bitwise is charging the least fee among all potential issuers of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs at 0.24% after a 6-month period of no fees.
• Grayscale plans to charge at the high end of range, 1.5% while this is lower than the trust's management fee of 2%, there is a potential to waive the fee.

Accuracy

No Contradictions at Time Of Publication

Deception (30%)

• The article implies that lower fees are better than higher fees without providing any context or information about how these funds perform over time. This is misleading because some ETFs may charge higher fees but have a better track record of returns for their investors.
• The article presents the fee charged by different ETFs as a way to differentiate them from each other when in fact they are all competing for investors' money and therefore should not be presented as such. This is deceptive because it implies that lower fees are better than higher fees without providing any context or information about how these funds perform over time.

Fallacies (70%)

• > Bitwise is charging 0.24% after a 6-month period of no fees <
• Grayscale plans to charge at the high end of range, 1.5% <

Bias (85%)

Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

• 1.5%
• .24% fee after a 6-month period of no fees
• .30% BlackRock's pricing decision, $27 billion assets under management

Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

• 1.5%
• .24% fee after a 6-month period of no fees
• .30% BlackRock’s pricing decision, $27 billion assets under management