California Governor Gavin Newsom's odds to win Democratic nomination for president have tripled
Joe Biden's poor debate performance led to concerns about his mental fitness for another term
Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris have seen increased odds to win the Democratic nomination
In a dramatic shift in political betting markets, the odds of California Governor Gavin Newsom becoming the Democratic nominee for president have tripled after the recent presidential debate. This significant change comes as Joe Biden's chances of winning re-election took a nosedive following his poor debate performance. Both the Fox Business and Newsweek articles report that Biden's odds of winning dropped significantly after his rambling answers and confusion during the debate, leading to concerns about his mental fitness for another term. As a result, Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris have seen their odds to win the Democratic nomination increase. This development highlights the role of political betting markets in reflecting public perception and sentiment towards candidates.
Democratic Party officials and liberal media personalities are calling for an alternative candidate as they watch Biden struggle in debates.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris have seen their odds to win the Democratic nomination increase following Biden’s poor debate performance.
Accuracy
President Biden's shares in election betting markets dropped significantly after his debate performance on Thursday.
Before the debate, Biden traded at 48 cents per share. After giving rambling answers and speaking with a raspy voice, his shares bottomed out at 29 cents.
Former President Trump’s chances to win the election surged after the debate, translating to a 58% chance of victory.
Deception
(30%)
The article contains selective reporting as it only reports details that support the author's position about Biden's poor debate performance and his decreasing odds in election betting markets. The author also uses emotional manipulation by describing Biden's debate performance as 'widely panned', 'raspy voice', and 'rambling answers'. There is no clear editorializing or pontification from the author, but there is a strong implication that Biden's poor debate performance and decreasing odds in betting markets are related. The article does not make any science or health claims, nor does it reference any studies without disclosing their status.
Before the debate, the 81-year-old Biden traded at 48 cents per share. But in just one hour, after speaking with a raspy voice and giving rambling answers, his shares traded at 29 cents before rising to 30 cents as of Friday morning.
Democratic Party officials and liberal media personalities were in a full-on panic as they watched Biden struggle to make his points and many are now calling on the party to seek an alternative candidate.
Election bettors had a visceral reaction to the CNN Presidential Debate on Thursday night, with the odds that President Biden will prevail in November taking a nosedive.
Fallacies
(80%)
The author makes an appeal to authority by quoting the odds from betting markets and online sportsbooks as evidence of Biden's poor debate performance and decreased chances of winning the election. This is a fallacious use of authority because these odds do not necessarily reflect the truth or accuracy of Biden's abilities or qualifications.
The website allows users to buy shares in a candidate, priced between 1 and 99 cents, which corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability that the candidate will win. Before the debate, the 81-year-old Biden traded at 48 cents per share. But in just one hour, after speaking with a raspy voice and giving rambling answers, his shares traded at 29 cents before rising to 30 cents as of Friday morning.
Online sportsbook BetUS said the debate forced them to temporarily suspend their presidential election betting market while oddsmakers adjust odds. When the market re-opens later today we expect to see significant action come in which will keep the market in flux for some time until bettors and oddsmakers reach a new consensus.
Election Betting Odds, another website that averages live odds from several betting markets, shows Trump with a 59.7% chance to win, up 4.1% in the last 24 hours. The same average of odds shows Biden’s chances cratering to 21.2%, a nearly 15 point drop overnight.
Bias
(80%)
The author expresses a clear bias towards President Biden's performance in the debate and implies that his chances of winning the election have decreased significantly as a result. The author also quotes several sources, including Democratic officials and liberal media personalities, who share this negative assessment of Biden's debate performance and call for an alternative candidate. These quotes reflect the author's bias towards Biden's candidacy.
Democratic Party officials and liberal media personalities were in a full-on panic as they watched Biden struggle to make his points and many are now calling on the party to seek an alternative candidate.
Election bettors had a visceral reaction to the CNN Presidential Debate on Thursday night, with the odds that President Biden will prevail in November taking a nosedive.
My job now is to be really honest. Joe Biden had one thing he had to do tonight, and he didn’t do it. He had one thing he had to accomplish and that was reassure America that he was up to the job at his age. And he failed at that tonight.
Joe Biden's age and mental ability have been major talking points during the campaign.
Biden appeared to lose his train of thought during parts of the debate.
Accuracy
Joe Biden's odds of winning a second term in the White House dropped after the recent presidential debate.
President Joe Biden appeared to lose his train of thought during parts of the debate.
Biden's age and mental ability have been major talking points during the campaign.
Deception
(35%)
The article contains selective reporting and emotional manipulation. The author focuses on the negative impact of Joe Biden's debate performance on his odds of winning the election without mentioning any positive aspects or context that could counterbalance this narrative. The author also uses phrases like 'disastrous head-to-head', 'punters rapidly lost faith', and 'historic debate victory' to manipulate the reader's emotions and create a negative impression of Biden. Furthermore, the article implies that Biden's age and mental ability are major concerns without providing any concrete evidence or peer-reviewed studies to support this claim.
The two men were neck-and-neck back in April; now, despite Trump’s varying legal and financial headaches, he has the punters’ firm backing to be the next U.S. president.
Trump delivered the greatest debate performance and victory in history to the largest voter audience in history
Biden’s disastrous head-to-head with Trump has seen punters rapidly lose faith that the incumbent president has another five years in him.
Joe Biden can’t put a sentence together.
President Joe Biden’s odds of winning a second White House term in November took a tumble with leading bookmakers after Thursday’s presidential debate, during which the Democratic incumbent appeared to lose his train of thought at several points.
Fallacies
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Bias
(15%)
The author expresses a clear bias against President Joe Biden by reporting on his perceived loss of mental ability and confusion during the debate. The author also quotes bookmakers who have lowered Biden's odds of winning the election due to his performance in the debate.
Biden's disastrous head-to-head with Trump has seen punters rapidly lose faith that the incumbent president has another five years in him.
Joe Biden, on the other hand, showed exactly why he deserves to be fired. Despite taking a weeklong vacation at Camp David to prepare for the debate, Biden was unable to defend his disastrous record on the economy and the border. Throughout the debate Biden lied, invented stories and could not articulate a single plan to make things less expensive and keep our people safe, choosing instead to change the subject and dwell on the past.
President Joe Biden's odds of winning a second White House term in November took a tumble with leading bookmakers after Thursday's presidential debate, during which the Democratic incumbent appeared to lose his train of thought at several points.
Political betting markets showed a significant shift during the presidential debate, with the chances of Joe Biden dropping out increasing to about 50%.
California Governor Gavin Newsom's odds of becoming the Democratic nominee tripled to roughly one-in-four after the debate.
