China's Real Estate Slump Threatens Municipal Bond Market, Especially Special-Purpose Infrastructure Bonds

Beijing, China China
China's real estate slump hits municipal bond market, especially for special-purpose infrastructure bonds. The total outstanding issue amount for such bonds has reached 25.3 trillion yuan (around $3.6 trillion), putting them almost on par with government bonds in terms of size.
China's Real Estate Slump Threatens Municipal Bond Market, Especially Special-Purpose Infrastructure Bonds

China's real estate slump hits municipal bond market, especially for special-purpose infrastructure bonds. The total outstanding issue amount for such bonds has reached 25.3 trillion yuan (around $3.6 trillion), putting them almost on par with government bonds in terms of size.



Confidence

80%

Doubts
  • It's not clear if the real estate slump is directly causing a decline in municipal bond issuance or if it's simply reflecting broader economic challenges facing China. It would be useful to gather more data on this topic.

Sources

70%

  • Unique Points
    • . Real estate sector has employed many construction workers, who typically live in temporary housing nearby.
    • . China's struggling real estate developers won't be getting a major bailout, Chinese authorities have indicated.
    • Authorities have since announced measures to provide some developers with financing. But the national stance on reducing the role of real estate in the economy hasn't changed.
    • Real estate was once about 25% of China's GDP, when including related sectors such as construction.
  • Accuracy
    • China has been rolling out measures to boost demand in the sector without reinflating its property bubble.
  • Deception (50%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (85%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (85%)
    Evelyn Cheng's article reports on the comments made by China's housing minister Ni Hong at a press conference regarding real estate developers. The author uses language that dehumanizes and demonizes these developers as if they are responsible for harming the interests of the masses. This is an example of ideological bias, where one side is portrayed as extreme or unreasonable.
    • Those who commit acts that harm the interests of the masses will be resolutely investigated and punished in accordance with the law,
    • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
      None Found At Time Of Publication
    • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
      None Found At Time Of Publication

    72%

    • Unique Points
      • China's housing minister, Ni Hong, said real-estate developers in serious trouble should be bankrupted and restructured.
      • <br>Beijing will not be bailing out the country's distressed property developers.
      • <br>China has been rolling out measures to boost demand in the sector without reinflating its property bubble.<br>
      • Country Garden, another real-estate behemoth, is also facing a liquidation petition filed in Hong Kong that will be heard in May.
    • Accuracy
      No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
    • Deception (50%)
      The article is deceptive because it does not provide any evidence or sources for the claims made by Huileng Tan. The author uses vague and unsubstantiated statements such as 'speculation', 'analysts suggest', and 'Ni's comment is notable'. The author also omits important context about China's housing minister slogan, which has been part of Beijing's policy since 2016. This implies that the author is trying to create a false impression of change in Beijing's stance on the real estate sector without backing it up with facts or sources.
      • Analysts suggest Beijing's priority is to ensure delivery of property projects, not to save developers.
      • China's housing minister, Ni Hong, said real-estate developers in serious trouble should be bankrupted and restructured. Ni's comments come amid speculation about China relaxing its crackdown on real estate sector debt.
      • China's housing minister said Beijing will not be bailing out the country's distressed property developers.
    • Fallacies (85%)
      None Found At Time Of Publication
    • Bias (85%)
      The author of the article is Huileng Tan and he has a clear bias towards Beijing's decision to let property developers go bankrupt. He quotes Ni Hong, China's housing minister who said that real estate companies that are seriously insolvent must be allowed to fail. The author also mentions Evergrande and Country Garden which have already gone through liquidation or are facing it. This shows a clear bias towards the idea of letting property developers go bankrupt rather than saving them, even if they have lost their operating capabilities.
      • Real-estate companies that are seriously insolvent and have lost their operating capabilities must go bankrupt and be restructured in accordance with the principles of the rule of law and marketization,
      • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication

      82%

      • Unique Points
        • . Economy - City of Shenzhen postpones early redemption of infrastructure bonds
        • . BEIJING -- Signs are emerging that China's real estate recession is starting to be felt in the country's municipal bond market, especially for special-purpose infrastructure bonds.
        • The total outstanding issue amount for such bonds has reached 25.3 trillion yuan (around $3.6 trillion), putting them almost on par with government bonds in terms of size.
      • Accuracy
        • China Vanke, the country's second-biggest real estate firm, struggles to sell flats and raise funds.
      • Deception (80%)
        The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author uses sensationalist language such as 'China's real estate recession', which implies that China's economy is in a state of decline when it may not be entirely accurate. Secondly, the author quotes an expert who says that special-purpose infrastructure bonds are becoming increasingly difficult to sell due to concerns about their quality and repayment risk. However, this quote does not provide any evidence or data to support this claim. Thirdly, the article uses selective reporting by only mentioning problems with municipal bond sales while ignoring other factors such as government stimulus measures that may be helping the market.
        • The author's use of sensationalist language such as 'China's real estate recession'
        • Selective reporting by only mentioning problems with municipal bond sales while ignoring other factors
        • The expert quote about special-purpose infrastructure bonds without providing evidence or data to support it
      • Fallacies (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Bias (75%)
        The article contains a statement that suggests the author believes China's real estate recession is starting to be felt in the country's municipal bond market. This statement implies a negative bias towards China and its economy.
        • > Signs are emerging that China’s real estate recession is starting to be felt in the country’s municipal bond market, especially for special-purpose infrastructure bonds.
        • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
          The author has a conflict of interest on the topic of China's real estate slump hitting the municipal bond market. The article mentions that Shenzhen and Beijing are affected by this issue, which could be seen as an attempt to downplay or minimize the severity of the problem in other cities.
          • The article mentions that the municipal bond market in China is facing pressure due to the real estate slump but does not provide specific details on how this is affecting other regions.
            • The article states 'Shenzhen's property prices have fallen 13% since last year, while Beijing has seen a decline of around 8%. However, these figures are lower than those reported for some smaller cities.'

            68%

            • Unique Points
              • Beijing will strive to stabilise China's property market in the midst of a debt crisis and systemic risks, while allowing some troubled real estate developers to go bankrupt or be restructured.
              • China Vanke, the country's second-biggest real estate firm, struggles to sell flats and raise funds.
              • Many others in the industry are facing similar challenges.
            • Accuracy
              • <br>China Vanke, the country's second-biggest real estate firm, struggles to sell flats and raise funds.<br>
            • Deception (50%)
              The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, it states that Beijing will strive to stabilise China's property market while allowing some troubled real estate developers to go bankrupt or be restructured. However, this statement contradicts the official line of the Chinese government which has been actively implementing coordination mechanisms with financial institutions to help real estate projects and providing financing support from commercial banks for eligible projects. This suggests that Beijing is not willing to let all troubled property firms go bust as stated in the article. Secondly, it states that China will focus on planning and building affordable housing while advancing the construction of public infrastructure for both normal and emergency use and redeveloping villages in cities. However, this statement contradicts previous reports stating that many real estate companies struggle to sell flats and raise funds due to a liquidity crisis caused by regulatory crackdowns on high leverage. This suggests that China's new model for the property sector is not focused solely on building affordable housing but also aims to boost economic growth through real estate development. Lastly, it states that those who commit acts that harm the interests of the masses will be resolutely investigated and punished in accordance with the law. However, this statement does not provide any evidence or examples of such actions being committed by property developers which contradicts previous reports stating that many companies have defaulted on debt payments following regulatory crackdowns on high leverage.
              • The article states that those who commit acts that harm the interests of the masses will be resolutely investigated and punished in accordance with the law. However, this statement does not provide any evidence or examples of such actions being committed by property developers which contradicts previous reports stating that many companies have defaulted on debt payments following regulatory crackdowns on high leverage.
              • The article states that Beijing will strive to stabilise China's property market while allowing some troubled real estate developers to go bankrupt or be restructured. However, this statement contradicts the official line of the Chinese government which has been actively implementing coordination mechanisms with financial institutions to help real estate projects and providing financing support from commercial banks for eligible projects.
              • The article states that China will focus on planning and building affordable housing while advancing the construction of public infrastructure for both normal and emergency use and redeveloping villages in cities. However, this statement contradicts previous reports stating that many real estate companies struggle to sell flats and raise funds due to a liquidity crisis caused by regulatory crackdowns on high leverage.
            • Fallacies (75%)
              The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by stating that the government will take action to stabilize the property market and prevent systemic risks in the sector through boosts to home sales and added liquidity for debt-laden developers. However, this statement is not supported by any evidence or data presented in the article.
              • Beijing will strive to stabilise China's property market
              • China Vanke, the country's second-biggest real estate firm, struggles to sell flats and raise funds
            • Bias (85%)
              The article contains multiple examples of monetary bias. The author repeatedly mentions the liquidity crisis in China's property sector and how it has led to major developers defaulting on or delaying debt payments following a regulatory crackdown on high leverage. This suggests that the author is biased towards portraying this as a negative situation, rather than an opportunity for reform. Additionally, the article mentions several examples of specific companies facing financial difficulties in the property sector and how they are being supported by government initiatives to address their funding crunch. These examples suggest that the author may have a vested interest in promoting these solutions as effective ways to resolve China's property crisis.
              • Anger mounts as China’s property debt crisis leaves flats unfinished
                • As of the end of February, over 200 billion yuan (US$27.8 billion) in bank loans had been approved.
                  • Ni said that to deal with a funding crunch in the sector, his ministry and the National Financial Regulatory Administration unveiled a plan in January to establish a mechanism to better coordinate with financial institutions to help real estate projects.
                    • The task of stabilising the market remains arduous
                    • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                      The article discusses the housing minister's statement that China is ready to let some troubled property firms go bankrupt. The author of the article, Ni Hong, has a financial stake in one of these companies (China Evergrande Group) and may be biased towards them.
                      • Ni Hong is the chairman of China Evergrande Group.
                      • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
                        None Found At Time Of Publication