Cocoa prices have skyrocketed due to a combination of factors including climate change, crop disease, and smuggling. The shortage has led to a near shutdown of processing plants in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, the two countries responsible for 60% of global production.
The global market for chocolate and chocolate products is projected to grow faster than 4% annually over the next few years.
Cocoa prices have skyrocketed due to a combination of factors including climate change, crop disease, and smuggling. The shortage has led to a near shutdown of processing plants in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, the two countries responsible for 60% of global production. This has caused prices to more than double over the last year with cocoa beans being in short supply. The global market for chocolate and chocolate products is projected to grow faster than 4% annually over the next few years.
Climate change is a key reason your chocolate Easter egg could cost more this year
Most chocolate is made from cocoa grown in West Africa
The shortage of cocoa resulting from the heatwave has seen prices soar to almost $8,500 (ਸ਼,700) a tonne this week.
Cocoa trees are particularly vulnerable to changes in the climate. They only grow in a narrow band of about 20 degrees latitude around the Equator and most global production is concentrated in West Africa.
In 2023, 58m kilogrammes of cocoa beans worth 27m were imported to the UK from Ivory Coast and Ghana with 85% of the UK's cocoa beans sourced from Ivory Coast.
Severe drought conditions have hit the West Africa region since February this year. This has been caused by temperatures that soared above 40C, breaking records in countries including the Ivory Coast and Ghana.
The World Weather Attribution group found that unless the world quickly reduces fossil fuel use, West Africa will experience similar heatwaves about every two years.
El Niño is a recurring natural fluctuation in weather patterns in the tropical Pacific that drives up global temperatures and can lead to extreme weather in some places. A strong El Niño has been active since last June.
Drought is not the only factor affecting cocoa growers. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana have been hit with an extreme weather double whammy.
The price of cocoa has more than trebled since this time last year and doubled in just the last three months due to a combination of drought, heatwave, fungal infection called black pod disease, and rising demand for chocolate.
Chocolate makers typically buy beans months ahead of time but soaring prices are now beginning to affect prices in the shops. Lots of players who have already announced price increases including Lindt & Spruengli.
Feeling the brunt of these price fluctuations are the farmers who grow cocoa crops, particularly smallholder farmers in West Africa.
Accuracy
Most chocolate is made from cocoa grown in West Africa, but a humid heatwave has blasted the crops and massively cut yields. Human-induced climate change has made the extreme heat 10 times more likely.
Deception
(50%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, it states that climate change is a key reason for the rise in chocolate Easter egg prices this year. However, it does not provide any evidence to support this claim and only mentions that cocoa crops have been affected by extreme heatwaves caused by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. Secondly, the article claims that West Africa produces most of the world's cocoa beans but fails to mention other countries such as Brazil and Indonesia which also contribute significantly to global production. Thirdly, it states that El Niño has been active since last June and exacerbates extreme weather conditions in some regions without providing any context or explanation for what El Niño is. Lastly, the article mentions a study by World Weather Attribution group but does not provide any details about their methodology or findings.
The article claims that climate change is a key reason for the rise in chocolate Easter egg prices this year. However, it fails to provide any evidence to support this claim and only mentions that cocoa crops have been affected by extreme heatwaves caused by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.
The article states that West Africa produces most of the world's cocoa beans but does not mention other countries such as Brazil and Indonesia which also contribute significantly to global production.
Fallacies
(75%)
The article discusses the impact of climate change on chocolate Easter eggs. The author explains that cocoa trees are particularly vulnerable to changes in the climate and that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have made extreme heatwaves more likely. This has led to a decrease in cocoa production, which has caused prices for chocolate Easter eggs to rise significantly. Additionally, the article discusses other factors such as drought and El Niño that are affecting cocoa growers in West Africa.
Most global production is concentrated in West Africa.
Bias
(80%)
The article discusses how climate change is affecting the production of chocolate Easter eggs. The author mentions that cocoa trees are particularly vulnerable to changes in the climate and that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have made extreme heatwaves more likely. The article also highlights a study by World Weather Attribution group, which found that unless fossil fuel use is reduced, West Africa will experience similar heatwaves about every two years. Additionally, the article mentions how drought conditions and an extreme weather double whammy have affected cocoa growers in Ivory Coast and Ghana resulting in a trebling of prices since this time last year.
Human-induced climate change has made the extreme heat 10 times more likely
Increasingly, climate change driven by fossil fuel use is multiplying this natural challenge in many regions.
Most chocolate is made from cocoa grown in West Africa
The shortage of cocoa resulting from the heatwave has seen prices soar to almost $8,500 (£6,700) a tonne this week.
The two countries responsible for 60% of global production, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, have experienced a near shutdown of processing plants due to the shortage.
Three factors contributing to the decline in cocoa production are environmental, economic cycle related and human. Environmental factor is impact of El Niño weather phenomenon which has caused drier weather in west Africa leading to problems on farms such as swollen shoot virus disease.
Human factors include challenges such as illegal mining, overtaking numerous farms in Ghana where sometimes farmers lease their land for payment leading degradation of quality of the land making it unsuitable for cocoa cultivation. The global market for chocolate and chocolate products is projected to grow faster than 4% annually over next few years.
West African governments have intervened to help cocoa farmers, Ghana Cocobod secured a World Bank loan in February 2024 to rehabilitate plantations affected by the swollen shoot virus disease. The board will take over diseased farms and nurture new plantings before returning them to farmers.
The shortage has accelerated sustainability programmes initiated by multinational corporations but African governments have yet to address significant structural issues in their interventions.
Accuracy
The shortage has accelerated sustainability programmes initiated by multinational corporations but African governments have yet to address significant structural issues in their interventions. The bargaining power of west African cocoa-producing countries seems to have increased, now is an opportune moment for these nations to unite and negotiate more favourable terms for their cocoa farmers.
It's inevitable that continuing cultivation under current conditions is unsustainable so chocolate makers will eventually turn to alternatives such as cocoa butter equivalents, extenders and artificial flavours (synthetic or nature-identical flavours that mimic the taste of chocolate without need for cocoa). The demand for cocoa has resulted in mass deforestation and significant carbon emissions issues likely worsen due to climate change. Push for cultivation led various forms labour abuses.
The rise in prices may initially appear beneficial but overall farmers are not earning more as a decrease in output leads to fewer harvests on average, recent economic challenges such as high inflation and currency devaluation have resulted in farmers becoming poorer.
Deception
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Fallacies
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Bias
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
There are multiple examples of conflicts of interest in this article. The author is a cocoa researcher and has financial ties to Ghana Cocobod, which regulates the country's cocoa sector. Additionally, the article mentions loans from both the World Bank and African Development Bank for rehabilitating plantations affected by disease or aging in Ghana.
$200 million loan from World Bank to rehabilitate plantations affected by swollen shoot virus in Ghana
$600 million loan from African Development Bank to rehabilitate aging and diseased plantations in Ghana
The article mentions financial ties to Ghana Cocobod
Inflation plays a part in the increase of cocoa prices, but climate change and drier weather patterns are also contributing factors.
<strong>Examples from other articles:</strong>
<ul><li>Climate change is a key reason your chocolate Easter egg could cost more this year.</li><li>The shortage of cocoa resulting from the heatwave has seen prices soar to almost $8,500 (ਸ਼,700) a tonne this week.</li></ul>
Accuracy
<strong>Contradiction:</strong> The shortage of cocoa resulting from the heatwave has seen prices soar to almost $8,500 (ਸ਼,700) a tonne this week.
Cocoa trees are particularly vulnerable to changes in the climate. They only grow in a narrow band of about 20 degrees latitude around the Equator and most global production is concentrated in West Africa.
<strong>Contradiction:</strong> The UK can provide financial and technical support to developing countries to help their farmers better cope with extreme weather. However, as climate change worsens more support will undoubtedly be needed to protect their livelihoods and keep the flow of cocoa beans coming into the UK.
<strong>Contradiction:</strong> The global market for chocolate and chocolate products is projected to grow faster than 4% annually over next few years.
Deception
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Fallacies
(85%)
The article contains several fallacies. The first is an appeal to authority when it states that cocoa prices are at a 47-year high without providing any evidence or context for this claim. Additionally, the author uses inflammatory rhetoric by stating that chocolate prices are likely to skyrocket soon and suggesting people should stock up on chocolate before Easter. The article also contains an informal fallacy when it states that cocoa cultivation in Ghana has become more complicated due to climate change without providing any evidence or context for this claim.
The world price for cocoa has more than doubled over the last year
cocoa trees are especially sensitive to climate change
Bias
(85%)
The article is biased towards the idea that climate change and other factors are causing a shortage of cocoa in Ghana. The author uses language such as 'complicated', 'unfavorable weather coupled with crop disease and smuggling' to paint a negative picture of the situation, without providing any evidence or context for these claims.
cocoa trees are especially sensitive to climate change
The bigger issue at hand is that cocoa cultivation in both Africa specifically Ghana and the Ivory Coast has reportedly become much more complicated due to climate change
