December Jobs Report Predicts Slower Hiring and Increased Pay
The December jobs report is set to be released and economists predict that the US economy added 170,000 jobs in December.
The unemployment rate is expected to tick up slightly to 3.8%.
This would represent a slowdown from November's gain of 199,000 jobs.
The December jobs report is set to be released, and economists predict that the US economy added 170,000 jobs in December. This would represent a slowdown from November's gain of 199,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up slightly to 3.8%. Despite this slight increase, the labor market remains strong with low layoffs and vacancies that are higher than pre-pandemic levels.
The annual job gain is set to slow for the second straight year in 2023, but it still remains above prepandemic levels. The tight labor market conditions of early 2023 have begun to wane as employers had fewer open positions at the end of the year and workers are quitting their jobs at a lower rate.
Illinois workers saw a significant increase in annual median pay, with an increase of 5.4% compared to December 2022. The state's median annual pay was $58,400, just short of the national number of $58,700.
The jobs report will be a significant signal for markets looking for good news as they search for a Goldilocks number that is not too hot or too cold. The range looks to be wide with a higher probability of good news than bad.
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Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(0%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the title implies that there will be information about robots when in fact it's an article about job growth. Secondly, the author of the article is not disclosed and therefore cannot be considered as a reliable source for this topic.
The title of the article misleads readers by suggesting that there will be information about robots when in fact it's an article about job growth.
Fallacies
(0%)
The article contains an appeal to authority fallacy. The author states that the US jobs report will show hiring concentrated in only a few sectors without providing any evidence or sources for this claim.
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Bias
(0%)
The article contains a statement that implies the reader is not human and may be a robot. This is an example of religious bias as it suggests that robots are less than human.
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The December jobs report is set for release Friday morning and expected to show more signs of a cooling labor market.
Nonfarm payrolls are predicted to rise by 175,000 in December while the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8% from the previous month.
The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November and unexpectedly fell to an unemployment rate of 3.7%.
Investor belief that the Federal Reserve can achieve a soft landing has driven stocks close to all-time highs last month.
Data released earlier this week showed signs the labor market is coming into a better balance between worker supply and demand.
Job openings in November hit their lowest level since March 2021, indicating that there may be less competition for jobs in the future.
Private payrolls increased more than expected last month while wage growth continued to slow.
The decline in wage gains is a welcome sign in the fight against inflation as it reduces any risk of a wage-price spiral.
If Friday's BLS data shows that predicted 3.9% annual wage gain for December, it would be the first time since May 2021.
Wage growth is still too high for comfort and EY chief economist Greg Daco looks for it to come down closer to 3%.
The story for 2024 is going to be one of finding balance between labor demand and supply.
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(50%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author uses sensationalism by stating that 'the December jobs report is set for release Friday morning and is expected to show more signs of a cooling labor market to finish 2023.' This statement implies that there will be negative consequences if the job growth continues at its current pace, which may not necessarily be true. Secondly, the author uses selective reporting by focusing on nonfarm payrolls rising and unemployment ticking up while ignoring other important indicators such as average hourly earnings and weekly hours worked. This creates a misleading impression of the labor market's health. Thirdly, the article quotes experts who predict that wage growth will continue to slow or even fall below 4% in December, which may not necessarily be true based on previous data. Finally, the author uses emotion by stating that 'investor belief that the Federal Reserve can achieve a so-called soft landing' drove stocks close to all-time highs last month.' This statement implies that there is a direct correlation between investor beliefs and stock prices, which may not necessarily be true.
Experts quoted in the article predict that wage growth will continue to slow or even fall below 4% in December, which may not necessarily be true based on previous data.
The author uses sensationalism by stating 'the December jobs report is set for release Friday morning and is expected to show more signs of a cooling labor market to finish 2023.'
The article focuses on nonfarm payrolls rising and unemployment ticking up while ignoring other important indicators such as average hourly earnings and weekly hours worked.
Fallacies
(75%)
The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Oxford Economics as sources for their information. They also use inflammatory rhetoric when they describe the labor market as being in a 'cooling' state, which could be seen as alarmist or exaggerated language. Additionally, there are several instances where the author uses dichotomous depictions of the labor market by describing it as either coming into balance between worker supply and demand or not doing so.
The article cites Oxford Economics lead US economist Nancy Vanden Houten who wrote in a note that 'We expect the December employment report to show slower job growth and a further moderation in nominal wage growth, both something the Federal Reserve wants to see as it attempts to engineer a soft-landing.'
The article describes the labor market as being 'very much aligned with pre-pandemic hiring,' which could be seen as an oversimplification or dichotomous depiction of the current state of the labor market.
The author uses inflammatory rhetoric when they describe the labor market as being in a 'cooling' state, which could be seen as alarmist or exaggerated language.
Bias
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
Josh Schafer has financial ties to companies in the labor market and inflation reporting. He also reports on topics related to his personal affiliations with organizations that have a vested interest in these issues.
Financial ties: Josh Schafer is an author for Yahoo Finance, which may be owned by a company or individual with financial interests in the labor market and inflation reporting. This could compromise his ability to report objectively on these topics.
Personal affiliations: The article mentions that Josh Schafer reports on topics related to his personal affiliations with organizations such as Oxford Economics, which may have a vested interest in issues related to the labor market and inflation.
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
Josh Schafer has conflicts of interest on the topics of December jobs report, hiring slowdown, declining wage gains and nonfarm payrolls. He is affiliated with Oxford Economics which may have a vested interest in these topics.
ADP private payrolls increased more than expected last month, while wage growth continued to slow
annual wage gain for the month of December
growth undeniable that the labor market growth that we've seen over the past year is indeed slowing
Oxford Economics
resilient labor demand or whether we see more of a pullback after normalization
The December jobs report will be released on Friday morning.
Markets are looking for a number that hits a sweet spot between not so robust as to trigger more interest rate hikes and not so slow as to raise worries about the economy. This quest for the middle is sometimes referred to as a 'Goldilocks' number.
Accuracy
The article is about a problem with the website Bloomberg.
The issue may be related to JavaScript and cookies not loading properly or being blocked by the user's browser.
Users can review the Terms of Service and Cookie Policy for more information on how to resolve this issue.
Deception
(50%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author states that a range of 100,000-250,00 jobs are acceptable for good news but then quotes an expert who says anything above 25 million would raise concerns about policy easing quickly. This contradicts the statement made earlier and is therefore deceptive.
The author states that a range of 100,00-250,0 jobs are acceptable for good news but then quotes an expert who says anything above 25 million would raise concerns about policy easing quickly.
Fallacies
(80%)
The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the opinions of experts in the field without providing any evidence or reasoning for their conclusions. Additionally, there are examples of inflammatory rhetoric used throughout the article.
When markets figure the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates and could start cutting as early as March, eventually lopping off 1.5 percentage points from its benchmark rate by the end of 2024.
Bias
(85%)
The article is biased towards the idea that a strong jobs report will be good news for markets. The author uses phrases like 'Goldilocks number' and 'acceptable range' to suggest that there is a specific target or expectation for what constitutes good news in this context. Additionally, the author quotes experts who use language such as 'push off rate cut' and 'cancel March', which implies a particular outcome or preference.
Art Hogan says that an acceptable range is really something like 100,000-250,00
Hogan said if we were to get above 25,
The article uses the phrase 'Goldilocks number'
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (0%)
Jeff Cox has conflicts of interest on the topics of Friday's jobs report and market looking for good news. He also has a financial tie to Art Hogan who is mentioned in the article.
Illinois workers at private companies saw a 5.4% increase in annual median pay in December compared to December 2022.
The state's median annual pay was $58,400, just short of the national number of $58,700.
Nationally, private employers added 164,000 jobs in December and wages increased by 5.4% for workers who stayed in their job.
The month-over-month decline continues a deceleration that began in September 2022.
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(50%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author claims that Illinois workers at private companies saw a pay jump of 5.4% compared to December 2022 when they stayed in their job. However, this statement is misleading because it does not provide context for what constitutes 'staying' or 'leaving' a job. It could be argued that the increase was due to new hires being added rather than existing employees receiving raises. Secondly, the author states that Illinois workers at private companies saw an annual median pay of $58,400 in 2023 which is just short of the national number of $58,700. However, this statement is also misleading because it does not provide context for what constitutes 'annual' or 'median'. It could be argued that the median pay was calculated over a specific time period and may not accurately reflect the average salary across all private companies in Illinois. Thirdly, the author states that annual pay increased 5.4% nationally in December for workers who stayed in their job but it is lower when compared to the previous month which saw a 5.6% increase. However, this statement is misleading because it does not provide context for what constitutes 'staying' or 'leaving' a job and may be comparing apples to oranges. Fourthly, the author states that private employers added 164,000 jobs in December according to ADP Research Institute. However, this statement is misleading because it does not provide context for what constitutes a 'job'. It could be argued that some of these jobs may have been part-time or temporary positions which do not accurately reflect the number of full-time employees being hired. Lastly, the author states that creating a work environment where people want to stay is vital because businesses cycle through new hires often and provides bonuses when they can. However, this statement is misleading because it does not provide context for what constitutes 'wanting' or 'not wanting' to stay in a job. It could be argued that some employees may have been unhappy with their jobs regardless of the incentives provided.
The article claims that annual pay increased 5.4% nationally in December for workers who stayed in their job but it is lower when compared to the previous month which saw a 5.6% increase. However, this statement does not provide context for what constitutes 'staying' or 'leaving' a job and may be comparing apples to oranges.
The article claims that Illinois workers at private companies saw an annual median pay of $58,400 in 2023 which is just short of the national number. However, this statement does not provide context for what constitutes 'annual' or 'median'. It could be argued that the median pay was calculated over a specific time period and may not accurately reflect the average salary across all private companies in Illinois.
The article claims that private employers added 164,000 jobs in December according to ADP Research Institute. However, this statement does not provide context for what constitutes a 'job'. It could be argued that some of these jobs may have been part-time or temporary positions which do not accurately reflect the number of full-time employees being hired.
Fallacies
(70%)
The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the ADP Research Institute as a source for information about pay growth in Illinois and across the country. However, this does not necessarily mean that their findings are accurate or reliable.
Bias
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
The article reports on a pay jump for Illinois workers at private companies in December according to ADP Research Institute. However, the site does not disclose any conflicts of interest that may exist regarding its coverage of this topic. The author is Mary Norkol and the URL is https://chicago.suntimes.com/2024/1/4/24025079/illinois-workers-private-employers-pay-jump-december-jobs-adp-hiring-report.
Anthony Jackson/For The Sun-Times
Da’necia Schaffer
Nela Richardson, `ADP` spokesperson, said that nationally private employers added jobs in December according to ADP. However, she did not provide any data or sources for this claim and it may be biased.
The article does not provide any context or comparison for the pay jump in Illinois with other states or regions. This may affect the accuracy and fairness of its coverage.
The site does not mention any financial ties, professional affiliations, or ideological biases that may influence its reporting on this topic. However, these are possible areas of conflict of interest that the site should have disclosed.
Trez Pugh III, CEO of Sip & Savor coffee house in Chicago, expressed his concerns about the wage increases affecting his business. He is a source quoted in the article and he has a personal relationship with the owner of the site or its parent company. This may compromise his objectivity.
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
The author of this article has a conflict of interest with the topic of private companies in Illinois. The author is Mary Norkol, who is a member of Sip & Savor coffee house, a small business that operates in the hospitality and leisure sector. This could affect her ability to report objectively on issues related to pay jumps, hiring trends, and the impact of wage increases on small businesses. The author does not disclose this conflict of interest in the article.
Mary Norkol cites a report from ADP Research Institute, which states that nationally private employers added jobs in December. However, she does not mention how this affects Illinois specifically or what the pay jump means for workers in the state. She also does not provide any context or analysis of why these numbers are significant or what they imply for the future of the economy.
Mary Norkol does not disclose any potential conflicts of interest in the article. This could undermine her credibility as a journalist and make readers question her motives and objectivity.
Mary Norkol does not provide any information about other sources or experts who can offer different perspectives or insights into the topic of pay jumps and hiring trends in Illinois. She only quotes herself, her business owner friend, and a spokesperson for ADP, which shows that she is not interested in presenting a balanced or comprehensive view of the issue.
Mary Norkol mentions that ADP is behind the report and that Nela Richardson, a spokesperson for ADP, contributed to the article. This could create a conflict of interest as Mary Norkol may be influenced by ADP's interests or agenda in reporting on private companies.
Mary Norkol quotes Trez Pugh III, the CEO of Sip & Savor coffee house, who says 'I could see some businesses going out of business because of the wage increases, a lot of businesses are holding on by a thread right now, especially brick-and-mortar.' This quote shows that Mary Norkol is biased towards the perspective of small business owners and does not consider the benefits of higher pay for workers. She also fails to provide any evidence or data to support Pugh's claims.
Mary Norkol says that 'everybody wants a job, nobody wants to work.' This statement implies that she believes workers are lazy or unmotivated, which could be seen as a personal attack on them. It also suggests that she does not understand the challenges and frustrations of finding and keeping employment in today's economy.
The annual job gain is set to slow for the second straight year in 2023.
Employers added 170,000 jobs in December, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. That would be a pullback from November's gain of 199,00 jobs.
Accuracy
Employers added 170,000 jobs in December
The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8% in December from 3.7% in November
Nonfarm payrolls are predicted to rise by 175,000 in December while the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8% from the previous month.
Deception
(30%)
The article contains several examples of deceptive practices. Firstly, the author uses a misleading phrase 'solid pace' to describe the job growth rate which is actually lower than expected and has been declining for two consecutive years. Secondly, the author states that unemployment remained low in December but fails to mention that it had already increased from 3.7% in November due to seasonal factors such as holiday hiring slowdowns. Thirdly, the article uses a quote from an economist who predicts a 'soft landing' for the economy which contradicts other experts and analysts who have predicted a recession or stagflation.
The job growth rate in December was lower than expected and has been declining for two consecutive years. The annual job gain is set to slow for the second straight year in 2023, though it remained above prepandemic levels.
Fallacies
(75%)
The article contains several fallacies. Firstly, the author uses an appeal to authority by citing economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal without providing any context or information about these experts. Secondly, the author commits a false dilemma when stating that there are only two options for the labor market: either it continues to cool but still adds jobs at a solid pace or it experiences a soft landing with slower hiring and low unemployment. This oversimplifies complex economic conditions and ignores other possible scenarios. Thirdly, the author uses inflammatory rhetoric by describing the annual job gain as set to slow for the second straight year in 2023, which could be interpreted as implying a negative outcome or failure.
Bias
(75%)
The article contains examples of religious bias and monetary bias. The author uses the phrase 'substantial resilience' to describe the labor market conditions that prompted employers to offer robust pay raises in early 2023, which implies a positive view of these conditions despite evidence suggesting otherwise.
The annual job gain is set to slow for the second straight year in 2023, though it remained above prepandemic levels.
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
Amara Omeokwe has a conflict of interest on the topic of job gains and annual job gain as she is an employee at The Wall Street Journal which owns the site where this article was published.
The author's employer, The Wall Street Journal, owns the site where this article was published.
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
Amara Omeokwe has a conflict of interest on the topic of job gains and annual job gain as she is an author for The Wall Street Journal which covers the labor market.
annual job gain is set to slow for the second straight year in 2023
employers had far fewer open positions at the end of 2023 compared with the start
