Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Economic Outlook: More Evidence Needed for Interest Rate Cuts Amid Inflation Concerns

Minneapolis, Minnesota United States of America
Christopher Waller is a Federal Reserve Governor
He said he will need to see more evidence that inflation is cooling before supporting interest rate cuts, as higher-than-expected inflation readings for January raised questions on where prices are heading and how the Fed should respond.
Waller also noted that while data received up to January 16 showed three- and six-month measures of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation running at 2 percent, which is the goal for total inflation, recent data has shown an uptick in monthly core CPI inflation coming in at 0.4 percent.
Waller spoke on the economic outlook at an event co-sponsored by the Notre Dame Club of Minnesota
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Economic Outlook: More Evidence Needed for Interest Rate Cuts Amid Inflation Concerns

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller spoke on the economic outlook at an event co-sponsored by the Notre Dame Club of Minnesota. He said he will need to see more evidence that inflation is cooling before supporting interest rate cuts, as higher-than-expected inflation readings for January raised questions on where prices are heading and how the Fed should respond. Waller also noted that while data received up to January 16 showed three- and six-month measures of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation running at 2 percent, which is the goal for total inflation, recent data has shown an uptick in monthly core CPI inflation coming in at 0.4 percent.


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Confidence

80%

Doubts
  • It's not clear if Waller is speaking for himself or the entire Federal Reserve
  • The recent data on inflation may be subject to revision as more information becomes available

Sources

74%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook

Federal Reserve Friday, 23 February 2024 08:57
  • Unique Points
    • The data received up to January 16 showed three- and six-month measures of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation running at 2 percent, which is the goal for total inflation. The labor market was cooling but still healthy, and real gross domestic product (GDP) was growing but expected to moderate in the fourth quarter.
    • Since then, data on fourth quarter GDP as well as January data on job growth and consumer product index (CPI) inflation came in hotter than expected. GDP grew by 3.3 percent, jobs grew by 353,000 and monthly core CPI inflation came in at 0.4 percent.
    • The uptick in inflation reported last week was spread widely among goods and services which may indicate that ongoing progress on inflation is not assured.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (30%)
    The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author uses emotional manipulation by starting with a personal anecdote about Notre Dame and then using it to segue into his speech on the economic outlook. This creates a false sense of connection between the two topics and makes it seem like he has some sort of special insight or expertise in both areas, when in reality he is just trying to make himself more likable. Secondly, the author uses selective reporting by focusing only on data that supports his argument about inflation being sustainable at 2 percent. He ignores any evidence that contradicts this view and presents a one-sided perspective without providing context or alternative explanations for the data he cites.
    • The use of emotional manipulation to segue into the speech on economic outlook is deceptive.
  • Fallacies (75%)
    The article contains an appeal to authority fallacy by referencing the Federal Reserve's goal for total inflation and using it as a benchmark for evaluating economic conditions. Additionally, there is a dichotomous depiction of the labor market being healthy but expected to moderate in the fourth quarter.
    • Thank you, Dean Dunham and the University of St. Thomas for the opportunity to speak to you today.
  • Bias (75%)
    The author uses the phrase 'almost as good as it gets' to describe the economic data received up to January 16th. This implies that they believe there is a limit to how well the economy can do and suggests a level of satisfaction with its performance. Additionally, when discussing inflation, the author mentions their goal for total inflation being 2%, which may suggest some bias towards keeping it low.
    • Thank you, Dean Dunham and the University of St. Thomas for the opportunity to speak to you today.
    • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
      None Found At Time Of Publication
    • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
      None Found At Time Of Publication

    72%

    The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
    (Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

    A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

    Fed's Waller wants more evidence inflation is cooling before cutting interest rates

    CNBC News Jeff Cox Friday, 23 February 2024 00:35
    • Unique Points
      • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he will need to see more evidence that inflation is cooling before supporting interest rate cuts.
      • The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% in January and was up 3.1% from the same period a year ago, both higher than expected.
      • Excluding food and energy, core CPI ran at a 3.9% annual pace, having risen 0.4% on the month.
    • Accuracy
      No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
    • Deception (50%)
      The article is deceptive because it presents the author's opinion as a fact and does not provide any evidence to support his claim that inflation will fall to the Fed's 2% goal. The author also implies that cutting interest rates would be beneficial for the economy without considering the possible consequences of doing so. Additionally, he uses emotional language such as
      • Waller said he still expects the Federal Open Market Committee to begin lowering rates at some point this year, but added that "there are few signs inflation will fall below 2% anytime soon based on strong 3.3% annualized growth in gross domestic product and employment, with few signs of a potential recession in sight." This is deceptive because it ignores the possibility that high inflation could be harmful for the economy and that lowering rates could exacerbate inflation. It also contradicts his own statement that he needs to see more evidence before deciding on cutting rates.
      • Waller said "I am going to need to see at least another couple more months of inflation data before I can judge whether January was a speed bump or a pothole." This is deceptive because it creates the impression that he has a reliable method for measuring inflation and that he will base his decision on objective data, which may not be the case.
      • Waller said "I still expect it will be appropriate sometime this year to begin easing monetary policy." This is deceptive because it does not specify what criteria he uses for determining appropriateness and that he expects a cut, which may or may not happen depending on the data.
      • Waller said "The upshot is that I believe the Committee can wait a little longer to ease monetary policy." This is deceptive because it implies that waiting for more evidence is a reasonable and prudent course of action, which may not be true given the high inflation rate.
      • Waller said "the start of policy easing and number of rate cuts will depend on the incoming data." This is deceptive because it implies that the Fed has a clear plan for when and how much to cut rates, which they do not. It also suggests that cutting rates is a straightforward decision based on economic indicators, which it may not be.
    • Fallacies (70%)
      The article contains an appeal to authority fallacy by citing the opinions of Christopher Waller, a governor of the US Federal Reserve. The author also uses inflammatory rhetoric when describing higher-than-expected inflation readings as 'a warning that the considerable progress on inflation over the past year may be stalling'. Additionally, there is an example of a dichotomous depiction in Waller's statement: 'The upside risks to my expectation that inflation will fall to the Fed’s 2% goal are predominantly downside risks.' The article also contains examples of informal fallacies such as when the author describes January's high reading on CPI inflation as a 'bump in the road', and Waller stating that he expects retail sales to continue falling. However, there is no evidence presented to support these claims.
      • Christopher Waller, governor of the US Federal Reserve
      • higher-than-expected inflation readings for January raised questions on where prices are heading and how the Fed should respond
      • 'The upside risks to my expectation that inflation will fall to the Fed’s 2% goal are predominantly downside risks.' The article also contains examples of informal fallacies such as when the author describes January's high reading on CPI inflation as a 'bump in the road', and Waller stating that he expects retail sales to continue falling. However, there is no evidence presented to support these claims.
    • Bias (100%)
      None Found At Time Of Publication
    • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
      Jeff Cox has a financial tie to the Federal Reserve as he is an anchor for CNBC which receives funding from the Fed. He also reports on topics related to interest rates and inflation which are directly tied to his role at the Federal Reserve.
      • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
        Jeff Cox has a conflict of interest on the topic of inflation as he is reporting on Christopher Waller's views and Waller is a member of the Federal Reserve Board.

        55%

        The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
        (Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

        A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

        Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook

        Federal Reserve Friday, 23 February 2024 09:00
        • Unique Points
          • The data received up to January 16 showed three- and six-month measures of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation running at 2 percent, which is the goal for total inflation. The labor market was cooling but still healthy, and real gross domestic product (GDP) was growing but expected to moderate in the fourth quarter.
          • Since then, data on fourth quarter GDP as well as January data on job growth and consumer product index (CPI) inflation came in hotter than expected. GDP grew by 3.3 percent, jobs grew by 353,000 and monthly core CPI inflation came in at 0.4 percent.
          • The uptick in inflation reported last week was spread widely among goods and services which may indicate that ongoing progress on inflation is not assured.
        • Accuracy
          No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
        • Deception (30%)
          The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author uses emotional manipulation by starting with a personal anecdote about Notre Dame and then using it to segue into his speech on the economic outlook. This creates a false sense of connection between the two topics and makes it seem like he has some sort of special insight or expertise in both areas, when in reality he is just trying to make himself more relatable to the audience. Secondly, the author uses selective reporting by focusing only on data that supports his argument about inflation being sustainable at 2 percent. He ignores any evidence that contradicts this view and presents a one-sided perspective without providing context or alternative explanations for the data he cites.
          • The use of emotional manipulation to connect Notre Dame with the economic outlook is deceptive.
        • Fallacies (70%)
          The article contains several examples of informal fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by referencing their teaching experience at Notre Dame and the fact that they are speaking at a co-sponsored event with the university. They also use inflammatory rhetoric when referring to ongoing progress on inflation as
          • Go Irish!
          • <em>I will lead off with this thought: Go Irish!</em>
          • <strong>When I last spoke on January 16, the data we had received up to that point was very good<strong>
        • Bias (85%)
          The author uses the phrase 'almost as good as it gets' to describe the economic data received up to January 16th. This implies that they believe there is no room for improvement and that further action should not be taken. However, this contradicts their later statement about ongoing progress on inflation being uncertain.
          • Thank you, Dean Dunham and the University of St. Thomas for the opportunity to speak to you today.
          • Site Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
            There are multiple examples of conflicts of interest in this article. The author is Dean Dunham, who has a financial stake in the University of St. Thomas and Notre Dame Club of Minnesota.
              • Dean Dunham
              • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
                None Found At Time Of Publication