Fed Holds Off on Interest Rate Cuts Amidst Inflation Resurgence and Cooling Economy

Washington D.C., District of Columbia United States of America
Consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures price index showed an acceleration in inflation rates in March
Federal Reserve holds off on interest rate cuts due to inflation resurgence and cooling economy
Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target
Jerome Powell expects only two quarter-point rate cuts in July and November
Real GDP growth rate cooled down more than expected with an estimate of 1.6% compared to the forecasted 2.5%
Fed Holds Off on Interest Rate Cuts Amidst Inflation Resurgence and Cooling Economy

The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts have been put on hold due to the resurgence of inflation. In March, both the consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures price index showed an acceleration in inflation rates.

Despite these developments, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, has emphasized that he needs to see more consistent evidence that the economy is moving in a positive direction before considering any rate cuts. The real GDP growth rate also cooled down more than expected with an estimate of 1.6% compared to the forecasted 2.5%. This has led some analysts to predict that rate cuts might not occur until the second half of 2024.

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates an 88.4% chance that rates will remain steady after the Fed's next meeting in June, and Powell himself has suggested that it is appropriate to allow restrictive policy more time to work. He expects only two quarter-point rate cuts in July and November.

Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, making it unlikely for interest rates to be reduced anytime soon. The Fed aims to maintain its independence from political influences and avoid appearing partisan during election seasons.



Confidence

90%

Doubts
  • Are there any political influences affecting the Federal Reserve's decision to hold off on interest rate cuts?
  • Is the real GDP growth rate estimate of 1.6% accurate?

Sources

98%

  • Unique Points
    • The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday.
    • There is a 97.1% chance rates will remain unchanged as of Monday morning according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
    • Inflation based on the consumer price index and the personal consumption expenditures price index both accelerated in March.
    • Fed Chair Jerome Powell needs to see more consistent proof that the economy is moving in the right direction before cutting interest rates.
    • Real GDP growth at an annualized rate cooled down more than expected with an estimate of 1.6% compared to the 2.5% forecast.
    • Given that inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, it’s looking like rate cuts might not come until the second half of 2024.
    • There’s an 88.4% chance rates will remain steady again after the Fed’s next meeting in June.
    • Powell indicated that it’s appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work and expects only two 25bps rate cuts in July and November.
  • Accuracy
    • The US Federal Reserve started its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday.
    • Investors expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates substantially in 2024 as inflation cooled.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

88%

  • Unique Points
    • Federal Reserve was considering interest rate cuts this spring
    • Inflation is heating back up
  • Accuracy
    • Given that inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, it’s looking like rate cuts might not come until the second half of 2024.
    • Investors expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates substantially in 2024 as inflation cooled.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

97%

  • Unique Points
    • The US Federal Reserve started its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday.
    • The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady.
    • Inflation remains above the Fed’s longterm target of 2%.
  • Accuracy
    • There is a 97.1% chance rates will remain unchanged as of Monday morning according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
    • Markets are almost certain that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at this time.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

94%

  • Unique Points
    • Investors expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates substantially in 2024 as inflation cooled.
    • Price increases have been surprisingly stubborn, leading to a rethink on Wall Street about Fed rate cuts.
  • Accuracy
    • Given that inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, it’s looking like rate cuts might not come until the second half of 2024.
    • The Fed was considering interest rate cuts this spring
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication