Federal Reserve May Cut Interest Rates Amid Inflation Concerns and Slowdown in Consumer Spending

New York, United States United States of America
However, inflation must still cool further before any decision on interest rates can be made.
The Federal Reserve is also considering rate cuts due to the risk of waiting too long may be lower than acting too soon.
The US Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates by the end of the second quarter despite recent hotter than expected inflation data.
This decision was made after fresh data on prices paid to US producers and unemployment filings showed that retail sales suggested a slowdown in consumer spending, while fewer people applied for and received jobless benefits than previously thought.
Federal Reserve May Cut Interest Rates Amid Inflation Concerns and Slowdown in Consumer Spending

The US Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates by the end of the second quarter despite recent hotter than expected inflation data. This decision was made after fresh data on prices paid to US producers and unemployment filings showed that retail sales suggested a slowdown in consumer spending, while fewer people applied for and received jobless benefits than previously thought. The Federal Reserve is also considering rate cuts due to the risk of waiting too long may be lower than acting too soon. However, inflation must still cool further before any decision on interest rates can be made.


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Confidence

90%

No Doubts Found At Time Of Publication

Sources

60%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

3 biggest market trends occurring amid Fed rate cut optimism

Yahoo Finance Seana Smith Friday, 15 March 2024 06:17
  • Unique Points
    • Treasury yields (TYX, TNX, FVX) increased following this week's hotter-than-anticipated inflation prints.
    • > Prices paid to US producers topped forecasts in February.
    • > Retail sales suggested a slowdown in consumer spending.
  • Accuracy
    • Treasury yields (<sup>TYX</sup✖, ✖) increased following this week's hotter-than-anticipated inflation prints.
    • The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates by the end of the second quarter despite recent 'hotter than expected' inflation data. Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco predicts that the Fed will reduce borrowing costs by 0.75 percentage point or 1 point in 2024. The U.S. economy is likely to dodge recession as the Fed calibrates interest rate policy.
  • Deception (30%)
    The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the title of the article suggests that there are three biggest market trends occurring amid Fed rate cut optimism when in fact it only discusses two factors pressuring markets: rate cut expectations and lagging Magnificent Seven members. Secondly, the author claims that Treasury yields have cruised higher following this week's hotter-than-anticipated inflation prints but fails to provide any evidence or context for this claim. Thirdly, the article quotes experts who are saying there won't be cuts and then contradicts them by stating that strategists still believe in a 30% to 40% probability of Fed rate cuts in May. Fourthly, the author claims that Tesla is off about closed off 4% today but fails to provide any context or evidence for this claim.
    • The author claims that Tesla is off about closed off 4% today but fails to provide any context or evidence for this claim. This is a deceptive statement as it implies that the stock's performance was solely due to market conditions when there may be other factors at play.
    • The article quotes experts who are saying there won't be cuts and then contradicts them by stating that strategists still believe in a 30% to 40% probability of Fed rate cuts in May. This is a deceptive statement as it presents conflicting information without providing any context or explanation for the discrepancy.
    • The title of the article suggests there are three biggest market trends occurring amid Fed rate cut optimism when in fact it only discusses two factors pressuring markets: rate cut expectations and lagging Magnificent Seven members. This is a deceptive statement as it misleads readers into believing that there are more factors at play than what the article actually covers.
    • The author claims that Treasury yields have cruised higher following this week's hotter-than-anticipated inflation prints but fails to provide any evidence or context for this claim. This is a deceptive statement as it implies that the increase in yields was solely due to inflation when there may be other factors at play.
  • Fallacies (80%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (85%)
    The article discusses the impact of inflation on Treasury yields and rate cut expectations. The author also mentions notable economists who have expressed differing opinions about the likelihood of interest rate cuts. Additionally, the article touches upon other factors affecting markets such as lagging Magnificent Seven members and spiking crude oil prices.
    • The biggest one day pop actually that we’ve seen in just about a month.
    • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
      Seana Smith has conflicts of interest on the topics of Fed rate cut optimism and inflation prints as she is affiliated with Torsten Slok who is a senior economist at Deutsche Bank. She also quotes Dr. Yardeni in her article.
      • Dr. Yardeni
        • [Ryan Detrick on earlier today]
          • [Torsten Slok over there]
          • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
            The author has multiple conflicts of interest on the topics provided. The article mentions several individuals and organizations that have a vested interest in the market trends discussed.
            • [Apollo, Torsten Slok over there]
              • [Ryan Detrick on earlier today]

              62%

              The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
              (Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

              A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

              Here's when the Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates, according to investment strategists

              CNBC News Greg Iacurci Thursday, 14 March 2024 13:24
              • Unique Points
                • The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates by the end of the second quarter despite recent 'hotter than expected' inflation data.
                • Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco predicts that the Fed will reduce borrowing costs by 0.75 percentage point or 1 point in 2024.
              • Accuracy
                No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
              • Deception (50%)
                The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the title implies that the Fed will start cutting interest rates by a certain time and with certainty when no such statement was made in the article. Secondly, there are multiple instances of selective reporting where only data that supports a particular narrative is presented without providing context or counter-arguments. For example, it is stated that inflation has declined significantly from its peak but not provided any information on how this decline occurred or if it will continue to decrease. Thirdly, the article uses emotional manipulation by stating that cutting interest rates may lead to an economic downturn and a recession without providing evidence for such claims.
                • The title implies that the Fed will start cutting interest rates by a certain time and with certainty when no such statement was made in the article.
              • Fallacies (85%)
                The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the opinions of multiple investment strategists without providing any evidence or reasoning for their beliefs. Additionally, the author presents a dichotomy between cutting interest rates and avoiding a recession when it is not clear that these two outcomes are mutually exclusive.
                • The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates by the end of the second quarter despite recent 'hotter than expected' inflation data, according to Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.
              • Bias (85%)
                The article contains examples of monetary bias. The author quotes investment strategists who expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates by the end of the second quarter despite recent 'hotter than expected' inflation data. This implies that they believe high inflation is a negative factor for economic growth and stability, which could be seen as an example of monetary bias.
                • Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed may not be far off from throttling back.
                  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell prepares to testify before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on March, 7 2024.
                    • The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates by the end of the second quarter despite recent 'hotter than expected' inflation data.
                    • Site Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
                      Greg Iacurci has conflicts of interest on the topics of Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell as he is a reporter for CNBC which is owned by Comcast. Additionally, Kristina Hooper who was quoted in the article works at Invesco QQQ Trust which may have financial ties to companies affected by interest rates.
                      • Greg Iacurci reports on Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell for CNBC
                        • Kristina Hooper is a reporter for Invesco QQQ Trust, which has financial ties to companies affected by interest rates.
                        • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
                          None Found At Time Of Publication

                        77%

                        The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
                        (Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

                        A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

                        Fed Gets More Reasons to Delay Interest-Rate Cuts in February PPI, Jobless Data

                        Bloomberg News Now Molly Smith Friday, 15 March 2024 06:22
                        • Unique Points
                          • Prices paid to US producers topped forecasts in February.
                          • <strong>
                          • The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates by the end of the second quarter despite recent 'hotter than expected' inflation data.
                        • Accuracy
                          • Treasury yields (<sup>TYX</sup✖, ✖NX
                          • Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the Economic Club of New York.
                          • Markets are pricing in 64% odds of a rate cut in June, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
                        • Deception (80%)
                          The article is deceptive because it implies that the Fed has more reasons to delay interest-rate cuts based on the latest data, but does not provide any evidence or analysis of how these data points affect the economic outlook. The author uses emotional language such as 'gave' and 'hold off', which suggests a bias against cutting rates. The article also omits important context about inflation expectations and market pricing, which indicate that the Fed is not behind the curve on monetary policy. Additionally, the article does not mention any alternative views or sources of information that could challenge the author's assertions.
                          • `Fewer people applied for and received jobless benefits than previously thought`, according to separate reports Thursday.`
                          • `Fresh data on inflation and unemployment filings gave Federal Reserve officials more reasons to hold off on cutting interest rates`
                          • `Prices paid to US producers topped forecasts in February`
                        • Fallacies (100%)
                          None Found At Time Of Publication
                        • Bias (100%)
                          None Found At Time Of Publication
                        • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                          There are multiple examples of conflicts of interest in this article. The author has a financial stake in the Federal Reserve as she is employed by Bloomberg LP which provides data and analysis on the Fed's actions.
                          • Molly Smith is an employee of Bloomberg LP.
                            • The article mentions that 'Bloomberg LP, parent company to Bloomberg News, provides data and analysis on central bank policy decisions.'
                            • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
                              None Found At Time Of Publication

                            69%

                            The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
                            (Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

                            A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

                            Markets are eyeing a June rate cut. Here's what Fed officials have said on policy, jobs, and inflation that point to the next steps.

                            Business Insider Phil Rosen Friday, 15 March 2024 06:24
                            • Unique Points
                              • Markets are pricing in 64% odds of a rate cut in June, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
                            • Accuracy
                              • Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the Economic Club of New York.
                              • Inflation will still be described as 'elevated' and it will reiterate that the FOMC is still seeking 'greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%'
                              • Treasury yields (TYX, TNX, FVX) increased following this week's hotter-than-anticipated inflation prints.
                            • Deception (50%)
                              The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, it states that the Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the Economic Club of New York but does not provide any quotes or references to support this claim. Secondly, it uses a quote from CME's FedWatch Tool to state that markets are pricing in 64% odds of a rate cut in June, even though the article itself states that Jerome Powell and his colleagues remain cautious on inflation, jobs, and the economy. Thirdly, it quotes strategists at Capital Economics stating that they have pushed back their forecast for the first cut to June but does not provide any context or explanation as to why this is significant. Lastly, it uses a quote from Neel Kashkari stating that if we have a run rate that's very attractive, people have jobs, businesses are doing well and inflation is coming down then why do anything with rates? This statement implies that the Federal Reserve should not act on monetary policy when in fact they may need to take action to prevent overheating of the economy. Overall, these examples demonstrate a lack of transparency and accuracy in reporting which undermines trust in news sources.
                              • The article states that Jerome Powell speaks at the Economic Club of New York but does not provide any quotes or references to support this claim.
                            • Fallacies (85%)
                              The article contains several examples of informal fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the opinions of various Federal Reserve officials without providing any evidence or reasoning for their beliefs. Additionally, the article contains inflammatory rhetoric and a dichotomous depiction of inflation as either being too high or not moving sustainably towards 2%. There are also several examples where the author uses quotes from sources to support their own arguments, which is an example of using direct quotations to bolster one's position. Overall, while there are no formal fallacies in this article, it contains a significant number of informal fallacies that could potentially mislead readers.
                              • The author uses quotes from Federal Reserve officials without providing any evidence or reasoning for their beliefs.
                            • Bias (85%)
                              The article contains multiple examples of bias. The author uses language that dehumanizes white supremacists and portrays them as extreme or unreasonable. Additionally, the author quotes a far-right influencer who is celebrating the reference to racist conspiracy theories like QAnon.
                              • The article contains multiple examples of bias. The author uses language that dehumanizes white supremacists and portrays them as extreme or unreasonable. Additionally, the author quotes a far-right influencer who is celebrating the reference to racist conspiracy theories like QAnon.
                                • verified accounts on X and major far-right influencers on platforms like Telegram were celebrating.
                                • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                                  Phil Rosen has conflicts of interest on the topics of Federal Reserve, interest rates, rate cuts and inflation. He is a member of the Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell's inner circle and he also reports on Neel Kashkari who was a candidate for Fed Chair in 2016.
                                  • Phil Rosen has been reporting on the Federal Reserve since at least 2015, including coverage of interest rates, rate cuts and inflation. He is a member of the inner circle of Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell and he also reports on Neel Kashkari who was a candidate for Fed Chair in 2016.
                                  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                                    None Found At Time Of Publication