FOMC Meeting and CPI Report in June: Crucial Decisions Ahead for Interest Rates and Mortgage Markets

Washington, DC, District of Columbia United States of America
FOMC increased benchmark federal funds rate eleven times since 2022, leading to higher mortgage rates
FOMC meeting scheduled for June 11-12, 2024
Interest rate cut probability at 0.1% according to CME's FedWatch Tool
Jerome Powell expected to provide insights on monetary policy direction during press conference
Median monthly mortgage payment is $2,256, up almost 7% from a year ago
Mortgage rates dipped under 7% but remain high and volatile
September projected as first interest rate cut with a roughly 50% probability
FOMC Meeting and CPI Report in June: Crucial Decisions Ahead for Interest Rates and Mortgage Markets

In June 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet on June 11-12, amidst a backdrop of high inflation and rising interest rates. The chance of an interest rate cut on June 12 is currently at a mere 0.1%, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. Fixed income markets project that September could be when the first interest rate cut of this cycle takes place with a roughly 50% probability, followed by a potential second cut in December. The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to provide further insights during his press conference on the likely direction for monetary policy. At the last FOMC update on March 20, two or three interest rate cuts were forecast as the most likely outcomes for 2024 by policymakers. As of June 6, mortgage rates dipped just under 7% after crossing above that threshold in the prior reading, as rates remain stubbornly high and continue to stifle the housing market. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee is scheduled to release its latest policy statement on June 12, along with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could potentially influence mortgage rates. If inflation as measured by the CPI is lower than expected, mortgage rates could fall. Conversely, if it is higher than expected, mortgage rates could rise. The uncertainty surrounding these upcoming events has led to potential volatility in mortgage rates. In the first half of June, however, mortgage rates are expected to remain relatively stable.

In the context of a turbulent economic environment and high inflation rates, the FOMC meeting and the CPI report on June 12 will play a crucial role in determining interest rate decisions and their impact on mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee has increased its benchmark federal funds rate eleven times throughout 2022 and 2023, raising it from nearly 0% to the range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Mortgage rates tend to increase when the Fed rate rises.

The housing market has been significantly impacted by high mortgage rates and rising home prices. The median monthly mortgage payment on new home purchases is now $2,256, up almost 7% from a year ago. As mortgage rates remain high and volatile, consumers may face continued challenges in the housing market.

In summary, the upcoming FOMC meeting and CPI report on June 12 will be crucial in determining interest rate decisions and their impact on mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee has increased its benchmark federal funds rate eleven times throughout 2022 and 2023, leading to higher mortgage rates. The housing market is currently facing significant challenges due to high mortgage rates and rising home prices, with the median monthly mortgage payment at $2,256 - up almost 7% from a year ago. As of June 6, mortgage rates have dipped just under 7%, but uncertainty surrounding upcoming economic events could lead to potential volatility in mortgage rates.


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Confidence

100%

Doubts
  • All facts are sourced from reputable financial news outlets and the CME's FedWatch Tool
  • None at this time

Sources

81%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

When will mortgage rates go down? A look at 2024 and 2025.

Yahoo Finance Aly J. Thursday, 06 June 2024 19:36
  • Unique Points
    • Mortgage rates have been between 6% and 7% since late 2022, with a brief spike above 8% in fall 2023.
    • Median monthly mortgage payment on new home purchases is now $2,256, up almost 7% from a year ago.
    • The Federal Reserve increased its benchmark federal funds rate eleven times throughout 2022 and 2023, raising it from nearly 0% to the range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Mortgage rates tend to increase when the Fed rate rises.
  • Accuracy
    • Mortgage rates tend to increase when the Fed rate rises.
    • Experts expect mortgage rates to remain high until the Fed decides inflation is under control and starts to reduce its benchmark rate.
    • The FOMC's confidence in the job market could change, triggering interest rate cuts even if inflation is not fully on track for its 2% target.
  • Deception (30%)
    The article makes editorializing statements and uses emotional manipulation by stating that 'higher rates have sent mortgage payments soaring' and 'monthly payments to become a little more manageable'. It also engages in selective reporting by focusing on the increase in mortgage rates without mentioning the decrease in home prices that may offset the impact of higher rates. The article also makes predictions about future economic conditions, which is not a deceptive practice but can be misleading if not based on reliable sources.
    • monthly payments to become a little more manageable
    • higher rates have sent mortgage payments soaring
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

100%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

With No Rate Cut Expected, Here’s What To Watch At June’s FOMC Meeting

Forbes Magazine Simon Moore Monday, 03 June 2024 00:00
  • Unique Points
    • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is unlikely to adjust rates at its upcoming meeting on June 11-12.
    • Currently, the chance of an interest rate cut on June 12 is just 0.1% according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.
    • At the last update of the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections on March 20, two or three interest rate cuts were forecast as the most likely outcomes for 2024 by policymakers.
    • The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will take questions during his press conference that expand on the likely direction for monetary policy.
    • Fixed income markets project that September could be when the first interest rate cut of this cycle takes place with a roughly 50% probability, followed by a potential second cut in December.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

96%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Mortgage rates tick down, back below 7%

FOX Business Network Breck Dumas Thursday, 06 June 2024 19:38
  • Unique Points
    • The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped to 6.99%
    • The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage decreased to 6.29%
  • Accuracy
    • Mortgage rates decreased from 7.03% to 6.99% for the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

95%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Mortgage Rates Improve Again, Despite Headwinds From Economic Data

MortgageNewsDaily Matthew Graham Thursday, 06 June 2024 19:39
  • Unique Points
    • The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) published a higher than expected Services PMI report.
    • Attention turns to Friday’s jobs report, which is considered a top tier piece of data.
  • Accuracy
    • Mortgage rates have been between 6% and 7% since late 2022, with a brief spike above 8% in fall 2023.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (95%)
    The author makes an appeal to authority by stating that 'Weaker trends in economic data will reliably cause the Fed to cut rates when the time comes.' and 'Apart from the highest of the top tier economic reports, ISM PMIs are some of the most relevant considerations when it comes to data that moves the rate market.' This implies that there is a reliable correlation between certain economic data and Federal Reserve actions. However, this is not always true as there are many factors that influence Fed decisions.
    • ]The phrase 'data dependent' is ingrained in the current bond market psychology for good reason.[/...]
    • [']Weaker trends in economic data will reliably cause the Fed to cut rates when the time comes.[
    • ']Apart from the highest of the top tier economic reports, ISM PMIs are some of the most relevant considerations when it comes to data that moves the rate market.[
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

85%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

June Mortgage Rates: Calm at Takeoff, Then Subject to Turbulence

www.nerdwallet.com Holden Lewis Thursday, 06 June 2024 19:40
  • Unique Points
    • The CPI report and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement are both scheduled for release on June 12.
    • If inflation as measured by the CPI is lower than expected, mortgage rates could fall. Conversely, if it is higher than expected, mortgage rates could rise.
    • There is uncertainty about how markets will react to the back-to-back events on June 12, leading to potential volatility in mortgage rates.
  • Accuracy
    • If inflation as measured by the CPI is lower than expected, mortgage rates could fall. Contradicted by: 'April 2024 inflation rate came in at 3.4% year over year, above the central bank’s 2% goal.'
    • Mortgage rate predictions vary, but both Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association predict gradual drops in rates over the next couple of years. Contradicted by: 'There is very little chance that the FOMC will surprise markets in June with an interest rate cut.'
  • Deception (50%)
    The article by Holden Lewis contains editorializing and sensationalism. The author uses phrases like 'potentially market-moving information', 'wild ride', and 'big day' to create a sense of excitement and uncertainty around the upcoming CPI report and Federal Reserve meeting. While it is true that these events could impact mortgage rates, the author's language exaggerates their potential impact.
    • The back-to-back events could fuel volatility in mortgage rates, pushing them abruptly in one direction or the other.
    • If surprising headlines arise on June 12, they could send mortgage rates on a wild ride.
  • Fallacies (85%)
    The author uses the fallacy of appeal to authority when stating that 'the Cleveland Fed is forecasting that the June 12 CPI report will show that core consumer prices rose about 3.6% in May.' This statement implies that the Cleveland Fed's forecast is a certainty, but it is not. Additionally, the author uses inflammatory rhetoric when stating 'If surprising headlines arise on June 12, they could send mortgage rates on a wild ride.' and 'Expect more rate volatility ahead as the Fed and investors wait for more conclusive evidence of a return to low, stable and more predictable inflation.' These statements are not fallacies but can be perceived as sensational or alarmist.
    • ]The Cleveland Fed is forecasting that the June 12 CPI report will show that core consumer prices rose about 3.6% in May.[
    • Expect more rate volatility ahead as the Fed and investors wait for more conclusive evidence of a return to low, stable and more predictable inflation.
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication