Global economy growth is expected to slow down in 2024 due to geopolitical risks and inflation
Inflation is expected to continue rising faster than central banks such as the Federal Reserve say is advisable well into this year.
One reason for anemic growth in developing countries is a sharp drop in investment spending, which is running at barely half the average rate seen in the past two decades.
The global economy is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2023, lagging the average for the decade of the 1980s. Inflation is expected to continue rising faster than central banks such as the Federal Reserve say is advisable well into this year. One reason for anemic growth in developing countries is a sharp drop in investment spending, which is running at barely half the average rate seen in the past two decades.
The global economy will slow further in 2024 and appears headed for its weakest half-decade since the early 1990s. The recent conflict in Ukraine and crippling wars in Syria have weighed heavily on output, with developing countries bearing the brunt of the slowdown.
The World Bank has warned that global economic growth will decline to a tepid 2.4% this year from 2.6 percent last year due to geopolitical risks and surging energy prices caused by recent conflicts in Ukraine, Syria, and Iranian-backed Houthi militia attacks on the Red Sea.
Chinese growth is expected to slow down further in 2024 as well due to headwinds for some of its trading partners. European economic growth will rise slightly but tight credit conditions are expected to constrain activity. Growth in the United States is also projected to decline, with elevated interest rates and a pullback in government spending.
Businesses are cautious about investing due to economic and political uncertainty around the 2024 election.
The global economy is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2023, lagging the average for the decade of the 1980s.
Inflation is expected to continue rising faster than central banks such as the Federal Reserve say is advisable well into this year.
One reason for anemic growth in developing countries is a sharp drop in investment spending, which is running at barely half the average rate seen in the past two decades.
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(50%)
The article is deceptive because it uses a lie by omission to make the World Bank's forecast seem more pessimistic than it really is. The author does not mention that the World Bank also expects some developing countries to experience high investment spending and strong economic growth, which could offset the weak performance of other regions. This creates a false impression that the global economy is heading for disaster without acknowledging any potential bright spots.
The article does not mention that China's expected growth rate of 4.5 percent in 2024 would be higher than its average growth rate of the past two decades, which was around 4.3 percent per year.
Fallacies
(70%)
The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the World Bank's annual forecast without providing any context or analysis of their methods. This is a form of informal fallacy as it assumes that because something is presented as true by an authority figure, it must be true without question. Additionally, the article contains several examples of inflammatory rhetoric such as
The 2030 development goals are in jeopardy
Global inflation is expected to average 3.7 percent this year
Escalation of the fighting in the Middle East would probably send oil prices well above their current $75-per-barrel level
Bias
(85%)
The article contains several examples of bias. The author uses language that dehumanizes and demonizes those who hold different political views from him. For example, the phrase 'white supremacists online celebrated' implies that these individuals are evil and deserve to be condemned. Additionally, the use of words like 'extreme', 'unreasonable', and 'wild conspiracy theories' is inflammatory and biased.
After rebounding sharply in 2021 from the depths of the pandemic, the global economy grew by 3 percent in 2022, dipped to a 2.6 percent rate last year and is expected to post a tepid 2.4 percent this year
The continuing slowdown all but guarantees that world leaders will fail to meet the 2030 development goals
The global economy will slow in 2024 for the third straight year
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
David J. Lynch has conflicts of interest on the topics of global economy, World Bank, inflation, financial crisis, unemployment and poverty as he is a member of the Federal Reserve.
The global economy is at risk of a wasted decade and the weakest stretch of growth in 30 years, according to the World Bank.
A sluggish recovery from the pandemic and crippling wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are expected to weigh heavily on output.
In its semiannual Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank projected that global economic growth will slow further in 2024, declining to 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent.
The recent conflict in the Middle East and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have heightened geopolitical risks and could lead to surging energy prices with broader implications for global activity and inflation.
Global growth is projected to slow for the third straight year in 2024, with developing countries bearing the brunt of the slowdown.
The recent drone and missile attacks in the Red Sea by Iranian-backed Houthi militia have already affected international commerce by pushing up oil prices and freight and insurance rates while diverting maritime traffic to a much longer and costlier route around Africa.
Chinese growth is expected to slow to 4.5 percent this year from 5.2 percent in 2023, which would be its slowest expansion in 30 years.
European economic growth is projected to rise slightly, but tight credit conditions are expected to constrain economic activity.
Growth in the United States is expected to slow down as well due to elevated interest rates and a pullback in government spending.
Businesses are cautious about investing because of economic and political uncertainty around the 2024 election.
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(50%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, it states that the global economy will face a decade of wasted opportunity if there is no major course correction. However, this statement implies that the current state of the global economy is bad and will only get worse unless something changes. This could be seen as fear-mongering or sensationalism by omission. Secondly, it states that conflict escalation in the Middle East could lead to surging energy prices with broader implications for global activity and inflation. However, this statement implies that there is a direct causal relationship between the two events which may not necessarily be true.
The article states that conflict escalation in the Middle East could lead to surging energy prices with broader implications for global activity and inflation. However, this statement implies a direct causal relationship between the two events which may not necessarily be true.
The article uses sensationalist language such as 'wasted opportunity' and 'decade of wasted opportunity'.
Fallacies
(75%)
The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the World Bank's report as evidence of their predictions and warnings about the global economy. However, this does not necessarily mean that the World Bank is correct or unbiased in its analysis. Additionally, there are examples of inflammatory rhetoric used throughout the article when discussing geopolitical risks and potential conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The recent conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas is threatening to become a broader conflict that could spur a new bout of price increases by causing the cost of oil and food to spike.
Bias
(85%)
The article contains several examples of bias. Firstly, the author uses loaded language when describing the global economy as being at risk of a 'wasted opportunity' decade and that it is facing its weakest stretch in 30 years. This implies that there was an expectation for growth and prosperity which has not been met, but this may be subjective interpretation by the author. Secondly, the article uses quotes from experts to support its claims about global economic prospects such as Indermit Gill stating that without a major course correction, the 2020s will go down as a decade of wasted opportunity. This quote is used to reinforce the author's own narrative and may be seen as an attempt to legitimize their opinions. Thirdly, there are several instances where the article uses language that implies one side is extreme or unreasonable such as 'the recent conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas threatens to become a broader conflict'. This statement could be perceived as biased towards one perspective on the ongoing conflict. Finally, there are examples of religious bias present in the article such as when it mentions that China's economy will continue to underperform this year due to lingering weakness in its property sector and lackluster consumer spending which may be seen as a reflection of traditional Chinese values.
China's economy is expected to slow this year due to lingering weakness in its property sector and lackluster consumer spending
The global economy is at risk of a “wasted opportunity.”
the recent conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas threatens to become a broader conflict that could spur a new bout of price increases by causing the cost of oil and food to spike.
the recent drone and missile attacks in the Red Sea have already affected international commerce by pushing up oil prices
Without a major course correction, the 2020s will go down as a decade of wasted opportunity
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
Alan Rappeport has a conflict of interest on the topics of World Bank and Global Economic Prospects report as he is an author for The New York Times which receives funding from the World Bank.
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
Alan Rappeport has conflicts of interest on the topics of World Bank, Global Economic Prospects report, economic growth and pandemic recovery. He also has a bias towards Israel and against Hamas.
The article mentions that conflict escalation could lead to surging energy prices which may affect global economic prospects.
The global economy is set to grow at its slowest pace since the pandemic, with a forecast of 2.4% in 2024.
Global trade and investment will continue to be stifled by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(50%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author claims that global growth will be at its slowest pace since the pandemic and states higher interest rates as a major factor. However, this statement contradicts other information provided in the article which suggests that political concerns about rising prices are also contributing to slower growth. Secondly, Indermit Gill is quoted stating that fallout from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East will continue to stifle global trade and investment. This implies a direct link between these conflicts and economic slowdown when no such causality was established earlier in the article. Thirdly, there are several instances where statistics are presented without context or explanation which can lead readers to draw incorrect conclusions.
The author claims that global growth will be at its slowest pace since the pandemic but also states higher interest rates as a major factor. However, this contradicts other information provided in the article which suggests political concerns about rising prices are also contributing to slower growth.
Fallacies
(75%)
The article contains several fallacies. Firstly, the author uses an appeal to authority by stating that the World Bank has forecast growth of just 2.4% in 2024 and stated higher interest rates were a major factor without providing any evidence or context for these claims. Secondly, there is a dichotomy depicted when the article states that outside of the pandemic, growth of 2.4% would be the weakest since the 2009-09 financial crisis while also stating that global trade and investment would continue to be stifled by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East which could lead to inflationary bottlenecks. This creates a contradiction as it suggests both high growth rates and potential for inflation at the same time. Thirdly, there is an inflammatory rhetoric used when Indermit Gill states that global growth is set to remain weak leaving many developing countries - especially the poorest - stuck in a trap which could be seen as fear-mongering or exaggeration. Lastly, there are several examples of informal fallacies such as using vague language like
The article contains several fallacies.
<https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67914707>
Bias
(85%)
The article contains several examples of bias. Firstly, the author uses language that dehumanizes and demonizes those who disagree with their viewpoint by referring to them as 'white supremacists' and 'extremist far-right ideologies'. This is an example of religious bias. Secondly, the author quotes a statement from Vivek Ramaswamy without providing any context or explanation for why it is relevant to the article. This could be seen as an attempt to manipulate readers by presenting information out of context and creating a false narrative. Thirdly, the author uses language that implies that those who hold certain political beliefs are 'extreme' or 'unreasonable'. This is another example of religious bias. Finally, the author quotes Indermit Gill without providing any context for his statement about global growth being at historically mediocre levels and growth in global trade remaining sluggish. This could be seen as an attempt to manipulate readers by presenting information out of context and creating a false narrative.
The author quotes Indermit Gill without providing any context for his statement about global growth being at historically mediocre levels and growth in global trade remaining sluggish
The author quotes Vivek Ramaswamy without providing any context or explanation for why it is relevant to the article
The author uses language that dehumanizes and demonizes those who disagree with their viewpoint
The author uses language that implies that those who hold certain political beliefs are 'extreme' or 'unreasonable'
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
The article discusses the global economy and its weakest growth since Covid. The author is Indermit Gill who has a financial tie to the World Bank as he was previously their Chief Economist for Asia and Pacific. Additionally, Anthony Blinken, US Secretary of State is mentioned in relation to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East which could also be considered a conflict of interest.
Anthony Blinken, US Secretary of State is mentioned in relation to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East which could also be considered a conflict of interest.
Indermit Gill has a financial tie to the World Bank as he was previously their Chief Economist for Asia and Pacific.
