Upstate New York Braces for Severe Weather: Tornadoes and Flooding Threat from Remnants of Hurricane Beryl

Millington, Connecticut, Connecticut United States of America
Beryl posed prolific tornado threat in eastern US with highest number of Tornado Warnings ever issued on a single day in July (118)
Flash Flood Watches issued across four states through July 11, 2024
Heavy rains and flooding risk for much of Northeast and New England
Remnants of Hurricane Beryl moving northeast towards Northeast bringing severe weather risks
Thunderstorms carrying risk of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes expected in Northeast on July 10, 2024
Upstate New York at highest tornado threat in nearly 20 years
Worst weather expected just north and west of Interstate 95 corridor
Upstate New York Braces for Severe Weather: Tornadoes and Flooding Threat from Remnants of Hurricane Beryl

The remnants of Hurricane Beryl, which made landfall in Texas as a Category 1 hurricane on July 8, 2024, are moving northeast and bringing severe weather risks to the Northeast. The combination of the remnants of Beryl and a passing frontal boundary will result in a dual severe weather risk for the Northeast, bringing both tornadoes and significant flooding through at least Thursday morning (Sources 1, 2).

The greatest tornado threat is in Upstate New York, where it's highest in nearly 20 years. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a swath of Upstate New York at a level 3 out of 5 severe weather risk (Source 1). The worst weather is expected from mid-afternoon into the evening on Wednesday, July 10, with thunderstorms across the Northeast carrying a threat of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes (Source 2).

Much of the Northeast and New England is at risk of heavy rains and flooding. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has highlighted parts of New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire as being at least at moderate risk for flooding (Source 1). Flash Flood Watches have been issued across four states through Thursday morning (Source 2).

The remnants of Beryl are expected to bring the highest tornado threat in nearly 20 years to parts of Upstate New York. Across the eastern U.S., Beryl has already posed a prolific tornado threat, with Monday witnessing the highest number of Tornado Warnings ever issued on a single day in July (118) and several tornadoes spotted in the Ohio Valley on Tuesday (Source 1).

The worst weather is expected to stay just north and west of Interstate 95 corridor. Residents living in flood-prone areas should be ready to seek higher ground as heavy rainfall could reach up to three inches per hour (Source 2).



Confidence

91%

Doubts
  • Are there any specific areas within Upstate New York that are at higher risk for tornadoes than others?
  • Is the tornado threat really the highest in nearly 20 years?

Sources

96%

  • Unique Points
    • Beryl moved from Arkansas to Michigan bringing tornadoes and flash flooding.
    • At least eight people were killed when Hurricane Beryl passed through Texas and Louisiana including a civilian employee of the Houston Police Department.
  • Accuracy
    • ,
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

94%

  • Unique Points
    • Millions regain power after Hurricane Beryl hit Texas
    • Colorado State University forecasts hyperactive hurricane season with 25 named storms, including six major hurricanes
  • Accuracy
    • Hurricane Beryl remnants expected to bring severe weather to Northeast on July 10, 2024
    • Severe storms with tornadoes and damaging winds threaten areas from New Hampshire to Pennsylvania
    • Central New York faces highest tornado threat in 18 years
    • Heavy rain causing Level 3 out of 4 risk of flooding in parts of New Hampshire, Vermont and New York
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (95%)
    The article contains some instances of appeals to authority and inflammatory rhetoric, but no formal or informal fallacies were found. The author quotes various sources such as FOX Weather Meteorologist Craig Herrera and Colorado State University forecasters to establish their credibility. Additionally, the author uses phrases like 'expected to help stir up' and 'primary threats from severe storms' to create a sense of urgency and importance.
    • ][FOX Weather Meteorologist Craig Herrera] Impacts from Beryl linger with severe weather threats in Northeast[[
    • The worst storms are expected in a swath stretching from New Hampshire to Pennsylvania, with tornadoes and damaging wind being the primary threats from severe storms.
    • For parts of central New York, it’s their highest tornado threat in 18 years.
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

93%

  • Unique Points
    • Discrepancies between global-scale and high-resolution models make it difficult to pinpoint exact location of heaviest rains
    • Minor flooding potential at Mad River at Moretown, Winooski River at Essex Junction, Otter Creek at Center Rutland and East Branch Ausable River at Ausable Forks
    • Drivers advised to avoid roads at risk of flooding such as North Williston Road in Essex Junction and South Creek Road in Rutland
    • Chances of worst-case scenario panning out are 10%
  • Accuracy
    • Heaviest rains expected in Vermont starting Wednesday afternoon and night
    • Significant threat for flash flooding from northern New York into Vermont and New Hampshire with up to 5 inches of rain possible.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (90%)
    No formal fallacies found. However, there are some issues with the use of authoritative sources and inflammatory rhetoric.
    • . . . a year after last summer's devastating floods . . .
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

98%

  • Unique Points
    • The remnants of Hurricane Beryl and a passing frontal boundary will result in a dual severe weather risk for the Northeast, bringing a rare tornado threat along with significant flooding through at least Thursday morning.
    • 'The greatest tornado threat is in Upstate New York, where it's highest in nearly 20 years.'
    • NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a swath of Upstate New York at a level 3 out of 5 severe weather risk.
    • Much of the Northeast and New England is at risk of heavy rains and flooding.
    • NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has highlighted parts of New York, Vermont and New Hampshire as being at least at moderate risk for flooding.
  • Accuracy
    • Tornadoes are possible in the Northeast United States.
    • Several tornadoes were spotted in the Ohio Valley on Tuesday.
    • The greatest tornado threat is in Upstate New York, where it’s highest in nearly 20 years.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

93%

  • Unique Points
    • Beryl produced significant impacts, particularly in Texas: over 2.3 million customers lost power; the peak officially measured wind gust at the coastline was 97 mph; at least 13.55 inches of rain were registered in some areas; and 115 tornado warnings were issued.
    • Colorado State University increased its seasonal forecast for hurricane activity, calling for 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes rated Category 3 or higher.
  • Accuracy
    • Beryl made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane early Monday near Matagorda, Tex, with gusts up to nearly 100 mph at the coastline and a storm surge over 5 feet in spots.
    • At least four deaths have been blamed on Beryl.
    • Beryl has since lost its tropical characteristics, and its remnants are now sweeping northward through the mid-South and poised to pass through the Midwest and Ohio Valley, where they are predicted to spawn more tornadoes and more flooding.
    • At least eight people were killed when Hurricane Beryl passed through Texas and Louisiana including a civilian employee of the Houston Police Department.
    • Two reported tornadoes had ripped through Kentucky and Indiana on Tuesday.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (85%)
    The article contains an appeal to authority and a few instances of inflammatory rhetoric. It cites the National Weather Service as an authoritative source for tornado warnings and quotes Colorado State University's revised hurricane outlook. The language used to describe the storm's impacts, such as 'unleashed tornadoes,' 'flooded Houston,' and 'destructive winds' is inflammatory but not inaccurate. Additionally, while the author does not make any formal logical fallacies, they do use a dichotomous depiction by contrasting the current Atlantic hurricane season with a 'hyperactive' future.
    • The storm was blamed for at least four deaths and cut power to more than 2 million customers, many of whom remained in the dark Tuesday morning.
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication