March Inflation Data: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Rises 2.8% Year-Over-Year, Fed Holds Rate Steady

Washington D.C., District of Columbia United States of America
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that policymakers were not seeing the progress they had hoped to see on inflation before considering lowering interest rates.
Goods inflation remained relatively muted, with goods prices increasing just 0.1% on the month and 0.1% year-over-year.
Investors had been hoping for a more aggressive stance from the Fed on rate cuts, but any reductions in borrowing costs are likely to be delayed.
Personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) rose 2.8% year-over-year in March.
Services prices were up 4% on an annual basis.
March Inflation Data: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Rises 2.8% Year-Over-Year, Fed Holds Rate Steady

Inflation continued to pose a challenge for the Federal Reserve in March, with key measures showing that price pressures remained elevated. The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which is closely watched by the Fed, rose 2.8% year-over-year in March, according to data from the Commerce Department.

The increase was in line with expectations and matched the rate of inflation seen in February. Personal spending also grew by 0.8% month-over-month, while personal income increased by 0.5%. However, the personal saving rate fell to 3.2%, down from both February and a year ago.

Services prices were up 4% on an annual basis, reflecting a trend of rising costs for services that has persisted for some time. Goods inflation remained relatively muted, with goods prices increasing just 0.1% on the month and 0.1% year-over-year.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled recently that policymakers were not seeing the progress they had hoped to see on inflation before considering lowering interest rates. With inflation continuing to remain stubborn, officials may keep interest rates at their current relatively high level for an extended period in order to try and tame price increases.

Investors had been hoping for a more aggressive stance from the Fed on rate cuts, but the latest data suggests that any reductions in borrowing costs are likely to be delayed. The Fed is scheduled to meet next week, and while it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in its May 1 decision, investors will be closely watching for hints about how long rates may stay on hold.

Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research spoke with Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio about the March PCE and March GDP data. Dutta noted that the economy is continuing to chug along quite well, which could make it difficult for the Fed to cut rates in a meaningful way.

Sources:

  • Commerce Department: https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/archives/pcepriceindex_currentdollar/
  • CME Group's FedWatch gauge: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

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Confidence

90%

Doubts
  • Are there any regional differences in inflation rates that could impact the Fed's decision?
  • Could recent economic data be subject to revision?
  • Is there any indication of a trend reversal in goods inflation?

Sources

97%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Key Fed inflation measure rose 2.8% in March from a year ago, more than expected

CNBC News Jeff Cox Friday, 26 April 2024 12:31
  • Unique Points
    • The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased by 2.8% year-over-year in March.
    • Personal spending rose by 0.8% month-over-month in March.
    • Services prices have increased by 4% year-over-year.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

92%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Neil Dutta on March PCE

Bloomberg News Now Friday, 26 April 2024 17:37
  • Unique Points
    • Neil Dutta reacted to March PCE data on April 26th, 2024.
    • Neil Dutta spoke with Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio about March PCE and March GDP data.
  • Accuracy
    • ]The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased by 2.8% year-over-year in March.[
    • Inflation remains stubborn and faster than the Fed’s 2% goal.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

95%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Stubborn Inflation Could Prod Fed to Keep Rates High for Longer

The Name Of The NZ Prefix. I PWA NZI.P.Was Dropped. Jeanna Smialek, Friday, 26 April 2024 12:35
  • Unique Points
    • Jerome H. Powell signaled that central bankers are not seeing the progress they were hoping to witness before lowering rates.
    • If inflation continues to remain sticky, officials may keep interest rates at their current relatively high level for an extended time.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication