The 2024 Republican presidential contenders are growing increasingly concerned about the dangerously frigid weather that Iowans will be confronted with when they head to the polls on caucus day, acknowledging that temperatures could negatively impact anticipated turnout. The GOP campaigns are now scrambling to ensure their ground game strategy can withstand the bitter weather in Iowa and expectations for what success will look like in Iowa.
The 2024 Republican presidential contenders are growing increasingly concerned about the dangerously frigid weather that Iowans will be confronted with when they head to the polls on caucus day, acknowledging that temperatures could negatively impact anticipated turnout. The GOP campaigns are now scrambling to ensure their ground game strategy can withstand the bitter weather in Iowa and expectations for what success will look like in Iowa. This is a significant concern as it has been decades since Iowans have experienced such extreme cold on caucus night, which could lead to low turnout and potentially impact the results of the election.
Former President Donald Trump had to cancel two commitments due to frostbite concerns.
The excessive cold began on Friday afternoon as a blizzard blanketed Iowa, bringing low temperatures and whiteout conditions that caused most campaigns to cancel events across the Hawkeye state.
Accuracy
The Iowa caucuses will be held on Monday during a dangerous, record-breaking cold front.
Temperatures are unlikely to break 0 degrees Fahrenheit and wind chill is pushing the temperature as low as -45 F Monday night.
Former President Donald Trump had to cancel two commitments due to frostbite concerns.
Trump claims his base of voters in Iowa will not be deterred by the cold weather.
DeSantis also thinks turnout will be lower than 2016 GOP caucuses, with around 130,00 to 140,0 people.
Haley canceled campaign events Friday due to a blizzard but pleaded with supporters during a telephone town hall.
Deception
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Fallacies
(80%)
The article contains several examples of informal fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority when they quote Trump and DeSantis saying that their base will come out regardless of the weather. This is a form of hasty generalization as it assumes all members of their respective bases will vote, which may not be true. Additionally, the article contains examples of inflammatory rhetoric such as
The excessive cold began Friday afternoon as a blizzard blanketed Iowa,
Bias
(85%)
The authors demonstrate bias by implying that the cold weather will disproportionately affect DeSantis and Haley's campaigns. They do this by quoting Trump as saying that his supporters are more enthusiastic than those of other candidates and will therefore be more likely to brave the cold. The authors also imply that DeSantis is not being truthful when he says that his campaign has a strong grassroots organization, by stating that turnout will be lower than in 2016.
But DeSantis also thinks turnout will be lower than the 2016 GOP caucuses
But Trump says the inclement weather could play in his favor because the frigid temperatures could stifle support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley on caucus night
DeSantis, who’s invested heavily in trying to win Iowa, trudged on as best he could this weekend.
Even in the heavy snow, several volunteers for DeSantis on Friday said they went out to knock on doors.
Former President Donald Trump had to cancel two commit to caucus events on Saturday because of the frigid temperatures and frostbite concerns.
Haley canceled campaign events Friday because of a blizzard but pleaded with supporters during a telephone town hall to prepare for the impending cold temperatures.
Temperatures are unlikely to break 0 degrees Fahrenheit, with wind chill pushing the temperature as low as -45 F Monday night
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
The article discusses the impact of freezing temperatures on caucus turnout in Iowa and how it may affect GOP presidential candidates. The authors have a conflict of interest as they are reporting for CBS News which is owned by ViacomCBS, a company that has financial ties to several pharmaceutical companies.
The article discusses the impact of freezing temperatures on caucus turnout in Iowa and how it may affect GOP presidential candidates. The authors have a conflict of interest as they are reporting for CBS News which is owned by ViacomCBS, a company that has financial ties to several pharmaceutical companies.
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
The author has a conflict of interest on the topics of Iowa and GOP presidential candidates. The article mentions several specific candidates including Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Nikki Haley.
Former President Donald Trump holds a wide lead among likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa with 48% of the vote.
Trump's chief rivals are former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, both below 10%.
The final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll before Monday's Iowa caucuses found Trump with 51% in December and 43% in October, while his chief rivals were in the teens.
Trump issued an attack on GOP rival Vivek Ramaswamy on Saturday, calling his campaign deceitful.
The Biden Indictments.
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(30%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the headline claims that this is the final sprint to Iowa caucuses but it does not mention any other upcoming events or primary elections. Secondly, the author quotes Trump as saying Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign is deceitful without providing any evidence of such deception. Thirdly, the article mentions a poll that shows Trump leading in Iowa but fails to disclose who conducted the poll and how it was done.
The headline claims this is the final sprint to Iowa caucuses but does not mention any other upcoming events or primary elections.
Fallacies
(70%)
The article contains two fallacies: Appeals to Authority and Inflammatory Rhetoric. The author uses the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll as an authority on the state of the GOP primary race in Iowa, without providing any context or analysis beyond what is presented in their own reporting. Additionally, Trump's attack on Ramaswamy is inflammatory and does not provide any evidence to support his claims.
The final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll finds former President Donald Trump holding on to a wide lead among likely GOP caucusgoers in the state. Overall, 48% of likely caucusgoers say Trump would be their first choice.
Former President Donald Trump lashed out at GOP rival Vivek Ramaswamy on Saturday, arguing on social media that the entrepreneur is not MAGA.
Bias
(85%)
The article contains examples of religious bias and monetary bias. The author uses language that depicts one side as extreme or unreasonable.
Trump issues first attack on Ramaswamy, calls his campaign deceitful
> Trump stood at 51% in the December DMR/NBC poll and 43% in October, with his chief rivals in the teens in both of those prior polls. <br> The final Iowa Poll from the Register in 2016 found Trump with 28% support to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's 23% with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 15%.
Vivek Ramaswamy spoke to voters at a town-hall meeting at Wellman's Pub and Rooftop in Des Moines
Presidential elections traditionally speak to future aspirations, offering a vision of a better tomorrow
Across Iowa, as the first nominating contest approaches on Monday, voters plow through snowy streets to hear from candidates, mingle at campaign events and casually talk of the prospect of World War III, civil unrest and a nation coming apart at the seams
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(30%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author uses sensationalism by stating that voters are 'casually throw[ing] around' the prospect of World War III and civil unrest. This statement exaggerates the level of concern among voters and implies that they are not taking their responsibilities seriously enough to vote for a candidate who can address these issues. Secondly, the author uses selective reporting by focusing on negative sentiments such as fear, anxiety, hopelessness and existential dread while ignoring any positive sentiments or solutions offered by candidates. Thirdly, the article is biased towards Trump's rhetoric which implies that he is responsible for this sense of doom among voters.
The author uses selective reporting by focusing on negative sentiments such as fear, anxiety, hopelessness and existential dread while ignoring any positive sentiments or solutions offered by candidates.
The author uses sensationalism by stating that voters are 'casually throw[ing] around' the prospect of World War III and civil unrest. This statement exaggerates the level of concern among voters and implies that they are not taking their responsibilities seriously enough to vote for a candidate who can address these issues.
Fallacies
(70%)
The article contains several examples of informal fallacies. The author uses the phrase 'far darker sentiment' to describe the mood in Iowa before the caucuses, which is an example of a hyperbole. Additionally, there are multiple instances where people express their fears about civil unrest and World War III as if they were certain facts rather than possibilities or opinions.
The author uses the phrase 'far darker sentiment' to describe the mood in Iowa before the caucuses, which is an example of a hyperbole.
There are multiple instances where people express their fears about civil unrest and World War III as if they were certain facts rather than possibilities or opinions.
Bias
(85%)
The author uses language that depicts one side as extreme or unreasonable. The use of phrases such as 'sleepwalking into a nightmare' and 'inevitable doom' are examples of this bias.
> Four years ago, voters worried about a spiraling pandemic, economic uncertainty and national protests. Now, in the first presidential election since the siege on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021,
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
Lisa Lerer has a conflict of interest on the topic of civil unrest as she is reporting for The New York Times which has been criticized for its coverage of protests and social justice issues. Additionally, her article mentions Vivek Ramaswamy who is known to have conservative views on these topics.
Lisa Lerer reports for The New York Times which has been criticized for its coverage of protests and social justice issues.
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
Lisa Lerer has a conflict of interest on the topic of civil unrest as she is reporting for The New York Times which has been critical of President Trump and his supporters. Additionally, Vivek Ramaswamy who was mentioned in the article also had a conflict of interest with regards to Iowa Caucuses.
Iowa will have their coldest caucuses ever on Monday, as a dangerous Arctic blast dives into the central US this weekend and lasts through early next week.
< Nearly the entire state will fail to climb above zero degrees Monday afternoon, with wind chill reaching life-threatening levels at minus 20 to minus 40 degrees for the entire day.
Iowans waiting to caucus could face dangerous conditions and accessibility issues due to extreme cold and high winds.
<Holly Moeller, a Republican voter from Rock Rapids, Iowa, is wary of venturing into expected frigid temperature to vote because she lives with her 90-year-old mother and is worried about getting sick.
The GOP campaigns are now scrambling to ensure their ground game strategy can withstand the bitter weather in Iowa.
<Iowans will wake up to temperatures more than 15 degrees below zero on Monday morning.
Accuracy
Nearly the entire state will fail to climb above zero degrees Monday afternoon, with wind chill reaching life-threatening levels at minus 20 to minus 40 degrees for the entire day.
Holly Moeller, a Republican voter from Rock Rapids, Iowa, is wary of venturing into expected frigid temperature to vote because she lives with her 90-year-old mother and is worried about getting sick.
Iowans will wake up to temperatures more than 15 degrees below zero on Monday morning.
Deception
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Fallacies
(70%)
The article contains an appeal to authority fallacy when it states that the GOP campaigns are now scrambling to ensure their ground game strategy and expectations for success in Iowa can withstand the bitter weather. This statement implies that these strategies and expectations were not previously considered or accounted for, which is not necessarily true.
The article contains an appeal to authority fallacy when it states that the GOP campaigns are now scrambling to ensure their ground game strategy and expectations for success in Iowa can withstand the bitter weather. This statement implies that these strategies and expectations were not previously considered or accounted for, which is not necessarily true.
Bias
(85%)
The article contains examples of religious bias and monetary bias. The author uses the phrase 'dangerously frigid weather' to create a sense of urgency for readers to care about the caucus turnout in Iowa. This is an example of sensationalism which can be seen as biased towards creating fear or alarm in readers.
The 2024 Republican presidential contenders are growing increasingly concerned about the dangerously frigid weather that Iowans will be confronted with when they head to the polls on caucus day, acknowledging that temperatures could negatively impact anticipated turnout.
The highest turnout in competitive Republican caucuses came on the two warmest nights (1988 and 2016)
Iowa has not experienced anything amounting to this level of cold on caucus night since then
Former President Donald Trump had to cancel two commitments due to frostbite concerns
Accuracy
The highest turnout in competitive Republican caucuses came on the two warmest nights (1988 and 2016) while the lowest turnout was when temperature was in upper 20s.
Former President Donald Trump had to cancel two commitments due to frostbite concerns.
Iowans waiting to caucus could face dangerous conditions and accessibility issues due to extreme cold and high winds.
The GOP campaigns are now scrambling to ensure their ground game strategy can withstand the bitter weather in Iowa.
Deception
(50%)
The article is deceptive in that it implies the weather will have a significant impact on voter turnout and the results of the caucus. However, there is no evidence to support this claim as historical data shows little correlation between temperature and voter turnout. The author also uses sensationalism by stating that 'this level of cold is rare' when in fact it has happened before.
The article states that the forecast for Monday in Des Moines is a high of minus-3 degrees, with a low of minus-14. However, this information does not provide any context as to what these temperatures mean or how they will affect voter turnout.
Fallacies
(85%)
The article contains an appeal to authority fallacy by stating that the forecast in Iowa on Monday is cold and could even be unprecedented for caucuses. The author also uses a dichotomous depiction of weather conditions when he states that this level of cold is rare and could mean something for turnout and results, but then goes on to state that there are no great comparisons because the 1972 caucuses were so brand-new and don't lend a direct comparison. The author also uses inflammatory rhetoric by stating that some allies of Donald Trump are already spinning this as potentially diminishing his large expected win margin.
The forecast in Iowa on Monday is cold — very cold.
Bias
(85%)
The article is biased towards the idea that the cold weather in Iowa could negatively impact voter turnout and Donald Trump's expected win margin. The author uses examples from previous caucuses to support this claim, but fails to consider other factors such as enthusiasm for candidates or how competitive the race was. Additionally, while there is evidence of a correlation between bad weather and lower voter turnout in some studies, it is not clear that this will be the case in Iowa's 2024 caucuses.
The forecast in Iowa on Monday is cold — very cold. What you might not know is that this level of cold is rare and could even be unprecedented for caucuses that are always held in January or February.
