Iran at a Crossroads: Reformists and Conservatives Clash in the 2024 Presidential Election

Tehran, Iran Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Iranians will elect a new president on June 28, 2024 following the sudden death of incumbent Ebrahim Raisi.
Massoud Pezeshkian promises to improve relations with the West and revive nuclear talks to lift sanctions on Iran's economy.
Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf emphasizes the need for economic development and job creation.
Mostafa Pourmohammadi emphasizes the need for dialogue and diplomacy in resolving international disputes.
Saeed Jalili is known for his hardline stance on foreign policy issues and pledges to maintain Iran's nuclear program.
Two conservatives, Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and two reformists, Massoud Pezeshkian and Mostafa Pourmohammadi, are vying for the presidency.
Iran at a Crossroads: Reformists and Conservatives Clash in the 2024 Presidential Election

Iran Goes to the Polls: A Presidential Election Amidst Uncertainty and Controversy

On Friday, June 28, 2024, Iranians will head to the polls to elect a new president following the sudden death of incumbent Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. The election comes at a critical time for Iran as it grapples with economic challenges and political instability both domestically and internationally.

Four candidates are vying for the presidency: two conservatives, Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and two reformists, Massoud Pezeshkian and Mostafa Pourmohammadi. The conservative candidates have pledged to maintain the status quo while the reformists are advocating for change.

Massoud Pezeshkian, a former heart surgeon and health minister, is one of the leading reformist candidates. He has publicly criticized Iran's morality police and their strict dress codes on women. Pezeshkian promises to try to improve relations with the West and revive nuclear talks to lift sanctions on Iran's economy.

Another reformist candidate, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, is a veteran politician who served as justice minister under former President Hassan Rouhani. He has emphasized the need for dialogue and diplomacy in resolving international disputes and improving Iran's relations with other countries.

On the conservative side, Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator, is known for his hardline stance on foreign policy issues. He has pledged to maintain Iran's nuclear program and strengthen its military capabilities. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the speaker of parliament and a former mayor of Tehran, has emphasized the need for economic development and job creation.

The election is expected to be closely watched both domestically and internationally as it could have significant implications for Iran's future direction. However, some Iranians have expressed skepticism about the fairness of the election due to concerns over voter suppression and manipulation by the regime.

In recent days, two ultraconservative candidates, Alireza Zakani and Amirhossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi, have withdrawn from the race. They urged their supporters to vote for one of the remaining candidates to ensure a united front against reformist forces.

The election results are expected to be announced on July 3, 2024. Regardless of the outcome, it is clear that Iran is at a crossroads and the choices made by its leaders will have far-reaching consequences for the country and its people.



Confidence

96%

Doubts
  • The fairness of the election due to concerns over voter suppression and manipulation by the regime.
  • The potential impact of withdrawals of ultraconservative candidates Alireza Zakani and Amirhossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi on the election outcome.

Sources

99%

  • Unique Points
    • Massoud Pezeshkian is a reformist former heart surgeon and health minister running for president.
    • Pezeshkian has publicly criticized Iran's morality police and their strict dress codes on women.
    • He promises to try to improve relations with the West and revive nuclear talks to lift sanctions on Iran's economy.
    • Former reformist presidents Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami, as well as former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, have publicly backed Pezeshkian.
    • Since the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody in 2022, the gulf between Iran’s leaders and its people has widened dramatically.
    • Some Iranians have lost hope of any meaningful change being delivered through the ballot box.
  • Accuracy
    • A snap election was called after a deadly helicopter crash.
    • Massoud Pezeshkian is running for president.
    • He promises to try to improve relations with the West and revive nuclear talks to lift sanctions on Iran’s economy.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

92%

  • Unique Points
    • Three candidates are in the running: two conservatives and a reformist.
    • None of the candidates is predicted to achieve 50% of the votes, necessitating a runoff on July 5.
  • Accuracy
    • Iran will hold elections on Friday to pick a president.
    • Polls open at 8 a.m. local time and closings typically extend well into the night.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (95%)
    The article contains some inflammatory rhetoric and appeals to authority, but no formal or blatant logical fallacies are present. The authors describe the challenges facing the incoming president as 'perilous times' and predict that none of the candidates will achieve a majority in the election, implying that these statements are facts. However, they are actually opinions and interpretations of events. Additionally, they quote analysts predicting a runoff or a candidate withdrawal as facts without providing evidence or citing sources for these predictions. These instances do not constitute logical fallacies but rather biased language and appeals to authority.
    • ][The vote comes at a perilous time for the country, with the incoming president facing a cascade of challenges, including discontent and divisions at home, an ailing economy and a volatile region that has taken Iran to the brink of war twice this year.][
    • Many analysts predict that none of them will achieve the necessary 50 percent of the votes, necessitating a runoff on July 5 between the reformist candidate and the leading conservative.
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

81%

  • Unique Points
    • Massoud Pezeshkian is a reformist former heart surgeon and health minister.
    • Pezeshkian promises to try to improve relations with the West and revive nuclear talks to lift sanctions on Iran’s economy.
  • Accuracy
    • More than 61.5 million Iranians have the chance to vote for a new president
    • Vote comes after President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash
    • Two conservative frontrunners, Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, failed to agree on a pre-polling day pact
    • Massoud Pezeshkian, the sole reformist candidate, may make it to a two-person run-off
    • Jalili believes Iran can withstand western sanctions by building economic ties to the east and is most ideological about using state power to enforce hijab on women
    • Qalibaf is willing to negotiate on reviving the nuclear deal and regards stronger management of economy as the route to growth
    • Two conservative candidates, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi and Alireza Zakani, stood aside at the last minute confirming reformist accusations of manipulation
    • Many Iranians plan to boycott the election due to disillusionment with democratic process and regime’s crackdowns
    • Pezeshkian needs high turnout to defeat supporters of the regime and Khamenei wants high turnout for honor of Islamic republic
  • Deception (30%)
    The article provides information on the Iranian presidential election and discusses the candidates' stances on various issues. However, it fails to disclose sources for some of the statements made, particularly regarding United against a Nuclear Iran's report. This lack of transparency could lead readers to question the credibility of these claims.
    • The vote comes after President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in May.
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (95%)
    The author expresses a clear bias towards the reformist candidate, Massoud Pezeshkian, and against the conservative candidates Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf. The author also implies that the election will be manipulated by the regime to ensure a loyalist victory. The author uses language that depicts Jalili as an opponent of the nuclear deal and someone who is most ideological about using the powers of the state to enforce the hijab on Iranian women, implying extremism. The author also mentions that two conservative candidates stood aside at the last minute, confirming reformist accusations against them. These actions demonstrate a clear bias towards Pezeshkian and against Jalili and Qalibaf.
    • Both Pesezhkian and the supreme leader want a high turnout – closer to 60% – but for different motives. Pezeshkian needs to persuade a depoliticised society to come out to defeat the 15 million or so supporters of the regime.
      • The regime has tried to weaken Pezeshkian's bid, including banning one of his final rallies.
        • The report highlights the role of the Baqiatallah Cultural and Social Headquarters, which the report says has created a full apparatus and strategy to engineer political and cultural outcomes in Iran.
        • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication

        92%

        • Unique Points
          • Massoud Pezeshkian is a reformist former heart surgeon and health minister.
          • Pezeshkian has publicly criticized Iran’s morality police and their strict dress codes on women.
          • He promises to try to improve relations with the West and revive nuclear talks to lift sanctions on Iran’s economy.
        • Accuracy
          • Iran will hold a special election on Friday to choose a new president after the helicopter crash that killed the incumbent, Ebrahim Raisi, and several other top officials.
          • Four approved candidates remain in the race: Masoud Pezeshkian, Saeed Jalili, and Mohammad Baqher Qalibaf.
          • Masoud Pezeshkian is a former health minister who is attempting to rekindle hope for reform within the system.
          • Saeed Jalili is an ultra hard-liner and the country’s former lead nuclear negotiator, committed to resistance to external pressure and influence.
          • Mohammad Baqher Qalibaf is the speaker of parliament, a former mayor of Tehran, known for being a pragmatic technocrat hungry for power and implicated in corruption scandals.
          • Elections under the Iranian regime are not free or fair but have historically been the lone opportunity for Iranians to influence decision-making by the regime.
          • Reformist candidates, such as Hassan Rouhani in 2013, have won surprising victories when large numbers of people participate in elections.
          • The upcoming election will impact the long-term viability of the Islamic republic due to widespread and growing discontent among the people caused by a poor economy and violent repressive responses to dissent.
        • Deception (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Fallacies (75%)
          The article contains some inflammatory rhetoric and appeals to authority, but no formal logical fallacies. The author makes a dichotomous depiction of the candidates' positions but does not present it as an either/or scenario. The author also provides context and historical information on the candidates without making fallacious assertions.
          • The clerical system today faces widespread and growing discontent among the people, due in no small part to the poor economy.
          • If a majority of Iranians skip the ballot, proponents of the state’s most insular and retrograde tendencies will continue their reign unabated.
          • Jalili stands for retrenchment in the face of pressure from external forces such as the United States.
        • Bias (95%)
          The author expresses a clear preference for the reformist candidate Pezeshkian over the other candidates, particularly Jalili. He describes Jalili as an 'ultra hard-liner' and someone who espouses 'isolationist views'. The author also implies that a victory for Jalili would signal that the Iranian people have checked out. These statements demonstrate a political bias in favor of the reformist candidate.
          • His campaign was savvy on social media and many of his proposed cabinet ministers were Western-educated. His momentum built quickly.
            • It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which he (Jalili) could win a majority of votes in either this three-way race or a runoff.
              • Stalwarts might welcome a Jalili presidency for ideological reasons, but his victory would signal that the Iranian people have checked out.
              • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                None Found At Time Of Publication
              • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                None Found At Time Of Publication

              98%

              • Unique Points
                • Two ultraconservative candidates, Alireza Zakani and Amirhossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi, have withdrawn from Iran’s presidential race.
                • Zakani served as Tehran’s mayor since August 2021 and left the 2021 presidential election to endorse Ebrahim Raisi.
                • Ghazizadeh-Hashemi, a medical doctor and head of the Martyrs’ Foundation, secured 3.5 percent of the votes in the 2021 presidential election.
              • Accuracy
                • ,
              • Deception (100%)
                None Found At Time Of Publication
              • Fallacies (100%)
                None Found At Time Of Publication
              • Bias (100%)
                None Found At Time Of Publication
              • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                None Found At Time Of Publication
              • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
                None Found At Time Of Publication