Iran's Presidential Election Runoff: Pezeshkian vs Jalili - Low Turnout and Implications for Domestic and Foreign Policies

Tehran, Iran Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Concerns about legitimacy of election results and growing disenchantment with Iran's political establishment
Iran is holding a presidential election runoff between Masoud Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili
Outcome will have significant implications for Iran's domestic and foreign policies, as well as its relations with the international community
Pezeshkian wants to loosen social restrictions and improve relations with the West, while Jalili wants to maintain strict adherence to Islamic laws and take a hardline stance on foreign policy issues
Record low turnout in the initial round of voting with only 39.9% of eligible voters casting their ballots
Iran's Presidential Election Runoff: Pezeshkian vs Jalili - Low Turnout and Implications for Domestic and Foreign Policies

Iran is currently in the midst of a presidential election runoff between reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian and ultra-conservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. The election, which comes after the death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, has seen record low turnout with only 39.9% of eligible voters casting their ballots in the initial round.

Pezeshkian, who is backed by reformists and moderates, has expressed his desire to loosen social restrictions such as Iran's strict hijab law and improve relations with the West. He also aims to potentially restart nuclear talks with world powers if elected.

On the other hand, Jalili, an ultra-conservative candidate, wants to maintain strict adherence to Islamic laws and has taken a hardline stance on foreign policy issues. He has been endorsed by some high-ranking officials including Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf.

Despite the importance of this election, many Iranians have expressed their disillusionment with the political system and have chosen to stay away from the polls. Some argue that there is little difference between the two candidates and see no reason to vote.

The low turnout has raised concerns about the legitimacy of the election results and whether they truly represent the will of the Iranian people. It also highlights a growing sense of disenchantment with Iran's political establishment, which has failed to address many of the country's pressing issues such as economic difficulties and social unrest.

Former Iranian Information and Communications Technology Minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi has warned that Iran could fall into the hands of groups like the Taliban if Pezeshkian is elected due to his perceived soft stance on foreign policy issues. However, it is important to note that these are just warnings and not facts.

The outcome of this election will have significant implications for Iran's domestic and foreign policies, as well as its relations with the international community. It remains to be seen whether the Iranian people will turn out in large numbers to exercise their right to vote or if they will continue to stay away from the polls.



Confidence

85%

Doubts
  • It's unclear whether there are significant differences in foreign policy between Pezeshkian and Jalili beyond their stated positions
  • The validity of Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi's warning about Iran falling into the hands of groups like the Taliban if Pezeshkian is elected is uncertain

Sources

76%

  • Unique Points
    • Iran is holding a runoff presidential election on Friday, June 28, 2024.
    • Only 39.9% of Iran’s voting public cast a ballot in the previous week.
    • Former Iranian Information and Communications Technology Minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi warned that Iran will not fall into the hands of the Taliban if Pezeshkian is elected.
  • Accuracy
    • Voter turnout was the lowest in Iran’s presidential electoral history with barely 40%.
    • Two leading candidates, Masoud Pazeshkian and Saeed Jalili, did not win more than 50% of the votes each.
  • Deception (30%)
    The article contains selective reporting and emotional manipulation. The author quotes the Supreme Leader's past words about low voter turnout in Iran and then goes on to report the current low voter turnout without mentioning that it is actually higher than previous elections. This is an example of selective reporting as it only reports details that support the author's position. Additionally, the article uses emotional language such as 'public rage simmers' and 'bloody crackdowns on dissent' to manipulate the reader's emotions and make them feel sympathetic towards those who are staying away from the election.
    • Over 20 years ago, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stood before a crowd at Friday prayers to denounce the United States for its disenchanted electorate. 'It is disgraceful for a nation to have a 35% or 40% voter turnout, as happens in some of the nations that you see having presidential elections,' Khamenei said in 2001. 'It is obvious that their people do not trust their political system, that they do not care about it and that they have no hope.',
    • Public rage simmers after years of Iran’s economy cratering to new lows, along with bloody crackdowns on dissent, including over the mass protests sparked by the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini after her detention by the country’s morality police allegedly over not wearing her headscarf to their liking.
    • Meanwhile, many people are unconvinced that their vote even matters.
  • Fallacies (80%)
    The article contains an appeal to authority fallacy when quoting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's past statements about low voter turnout being a sign of distrust in the political system. However, this does not necessarily mean that the current situation in Iran is a direct result of those past statements or that they hold any bearing on the validity of the author's claims.
    • Over 20 years ago, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stood before a crowd at Friday prayers to denounce the United States for its disenchanted electorate. 'It is disgraceful for a nation to have a 35% or 40% voter turnout, as happens in some of the nations that you see having presidential elections,' Khamenei said in 2001. 'It is obvious that their people do not trust their political system, that they do not care about it and that they have no hope.'
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

81%

  • Unique Points
    • Iranians voted to elect a new president on July 2, 2024.
    • Two leading candidates, Masoud Pazeshkian and Saeed Jalili, did not win more than 50% of the votes each.
  • Accuracy
    • Voter turnout was the lowest in Iran’s presidential electoral history with barely 40%.
  • Deception (50%)
    The article contains editorializing and selective reporting. The authors present their opinions on the candidates' abilities to improve people's lives and influence Iran's relations with the West without providing any factual evidence or peer-reviewed studies to support their claims. They also focus on details that support their position, such as Jalili's tough stance against the West and Iran's reliance on Russia and China, while omitting information that contradicts it.
    • The authors state that Iranian officials believe the West backed away from the nuclear deal and were not seriously engaged economically with Iran. This is an example of editorializing as it expresses the authors' opinion on the matter without providing any factual evidence.
    • The authors call Jalili a hardliner but also mention his promise to rely on local resources rather than looking to the West to solve problems. This is an example of selective reporting as it only presents one side of Jalili's position.
  • Fallacies (85%)
    The authors make an appeal to authority by quoting Iranian officials stating that the West is to blame for the current state of relations between Iran and the West. They also use inflammatory rhetoric by describing Jalili as a 'hardliner' and 'tough negotiator' without providing any evidence or context for these labels.
    • Iranian officials have said that this is the West’s fault, because the West backed away from the nuclear deal, and that the West who was not happy with the results of the negotiations. They say the West was never seriously engaged, economically, with Iran.
    • Well, Mr. Jalili is being called a hardliner. He himself likes to be called a principlist. He was a tough [nuclear] negotiator long ago known for his tough stance against the West.
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

96%

  • Unique Points
    • Iran is headed for a runoff election on Friday, July 5, between reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian and ultra-conservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili.
    • Pezeshkian wants to loosen social restrictions like Iran’s strict hijab law and improve relations with the West, including potentially restarting nuclear talks with world powers.
  • Accuracy
    • Iran is holding a runoff presidential election on Friday, June 28, 2024.
    • Approximately 40% of Iran's voting public cast a ballot in the previous week.
    • Iranians had a choice between two presidential candidates in the first-round election on July 1st.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

92%

  • Unique Points
    • Bita Irani, a housewife in Tehran, expressed her view that there was no difference between the two candidates and saw no reason to vote
  • Accuracy
    • Approximately 60% of eligible voters did not cast a vote or opted to cast a blank one
    • Iranians had a choice between two presidential candidates in the first-round election on July 1st
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (95%)
    The author is reporting on the apathy and disengagement of Iranian voters towards the presidential election. She is not making any fallacious statements herself, but rather presenting the views of Iranian citizens. However, there are some instances where the author's language could be perceived as implying a lack of significance in the election results due to low voter turnout and a perceived lack of difference between candidates.
    • ]Many Iranians now see no reason to be engaged,
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication