US-Saudi Defense Pact at Risk as Israeli Offensive in Rafah Displaces Over 450,000 Palestinians and Strains Humanitarian Aid

Rafah, Gaza Strip Palestine, State of
Israeli offensive in Rafah displaces over 450,000 Palestinians and strains humanitarian aid
UNRWA plays leading role in delivering aid to millions of Palestinians across Middle East, but US funding was cut off following Israeli allegations of links to Hamas which were later found to be unsubstantiated
US considering new defense pact with Saudi Arabia despite Israeli resistance to Palestinian statehood
US-Saudi Defense Pact at Risk as Israeli Offensive in Rafah Displaces Over 450,000 Palestinians and Strains Humanitarian Aid

The ongoing crisis in Gaza has put pressure on the United States and Saudi Arabia to find a diplomatic solution, with Hamas accepting a ceasefire deal proposed by Egypt and Qatar potentially opening the door for negotiations. President Joe Biden announced that the US would not deliver 3,500 heavy ordnance bombs to Israel if it invades Rafah, adding weight to the administration's efforts to secure a new defense pact with Saudi Arabia. However, Israeli resistance to establishing diplomatic relations with a Palestinian nation and potential full-scale assaults on Palestinian cities like Rafah pose challenges for Biden's proposed grand bargain.

The Israeli offensive in Rafah has displaced over 450,000 Palestinians and strained the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) plays a leading role in delivering aid to millions of Palestinians across the Middle East. Despite allegations linking UNRWA to Hamas, an independent review found no credible evidence to support these claims.

The Israeli battalions' push into Rafah comes as US officials work on finalizing the main elements of a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which includes a U.S.-Saudi mutual defense pact and cooperation on a civilian nuclear program in Saudi Arabia. However, Israeli resistance to Palestinian statehood remains an obstacle to normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Former CIA Director David Petraeus believes that the elusive two-state solution is the biggest barrier to normalization. The Israeli government's refusal to recognize Palestine as a state since 1948 has prevented diplomatic ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Despite this, there have been discrete but growing cooperation efforts.

The US cut off funding to UNRWA following Israeli allegations of links between the organization and Hamas. However, an independent review found no credible evidence to back these claims. The humanitarian situation in Gaza has worsened due to the ongoing conflict, with over 450,000 Palestinians displaced and aid delivery strained.

The Israeli forces' seizure of the Rafah border crossing and push into the city threatens to undercut Biden's bid for a new defense pact with Saudi Arabia. The potential three-way grand bargain between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Palestine could be jeopardized if Israeli leaders do not move towards joining diplomatic talks.

The US has been criticized for its inconsistent stance on the conflict. While Biden has pledged to stop supplying offensive weapons to Israel if it continues its assault on Rafah, reports suggest that he plans to advance a $1bn arms transfer, including tank shells. This apparent contradiction raises concerns about the US's commitment to upholding international humanitarian law and promoting peace in the region.



Confidence

96%

Doubts
  • Is there any credible evidence linking UNRWA to Hamas?
  • What is the current status of negotiations between Israel and Palestine?

Sources

98%

  • Unique Points
    • President Biden is pushing for a broad deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia that would establish diplomatic relations and involve the recognition of a Palestinian nation.
    • American and Saudi officials are now close to finalizing the main elements of the deal: a U.S.-Saudi mutual defense pact and cooperation on a civilian nuclear program in Saudi Arabia.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

95%

  • Unique Points
    • Former CIA Director David Petraeus believes a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict is elusive and the biggest barrier to normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
    • Israel does not have diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia due to Saudi Arabia’s refusal to recognize Israel as a state since 1948.
  • Accuracy
    • The two-state solution refers to establishing two independent states for Israelis and Palestinians.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

98%

  • Unique Points
    • Hamas accepted a hostage deal proposed by Egypt and Qatar on May 6, potentially opening the door to a ceasefire.
    • President Joe Biden announced on May 8 that the United States would not deliver 3,500 heavy ordnance bombs to Israel if it invades Rafah.
    • CIA Chief William Burns visited Jerusalem for talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, underscoring the high stakes facing the administration.
    • An Israeli invasion of Rafah could undercut Biden’s bid to secure a new defense pact with Saudi Arabia.
  • Accuracy
    • President Biden announced on May 8 that the United States would not deliver 3,500 heavy ordnance bombs to Israel if it invades Rafah.
    • The White House has worked hard to prevent a wider regional conflict in the Middle East.
    • Israeli leaders are not moving to join the negotiations for a US-Saudi deal, putting the potential three-way grand bargain in jeopardy.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

64%

  • Unique Points
    • The Israeli offensive in Rafah has displaced 450,000 Palestinians and strained the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza.
    • UNRWA provides vital services to millions of Palestinians across the Middle East and played a leading role in aid delivery in Gaza. The US cut off funding to UNRWA following Israeli allegations of links between UNRWA and Hamas, but an independent review found no credible evidence to back these allegations.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (35%)
    The article by Ali Harb contains several instances of deception through selective reporting and emotional manipulation. The author presents statements from the White House and Israeli officials without providing necessary context or challenging their claims, creating a false equivalence between the US government's rhetoric and reality on the ground. Additionally, he uses emotionally charged language to manipulate readers' emotions towards Israel's actions in Rafah.
    • One week later, however, Israeli forces have seized the Rafah border crossing and pushed into the city, where more than 1.5 million Palestinians are sheltering.
    • The Biden administration issued a report last week saying that Israel offered credible and reliable assurances that US arms are not being deployed to commit abuses.
    • Israel put a forward-leaning proposal on the table for a ceasefire and hostage deal.
    • We believe that what we’re seeing right now is a targeted operation. That’s what Israel has told us. We have not seen a major operation moving forward.
  • Fallacies (75%)
    The article contains several instances of appeals to authority and inflammatory rhetoric. Additionally, there are examples of dichotomous depictions. However, no formal or informal fallacies were found in the content.
    • “We’ve got a situation where the rhetoric is not matching the action,” said Hassan El-Tayyab, legislative director for Middle East policy at the advocacy group Friends Committee on National Legislation.
  • Bias (15%)
    The author uses language that depicts the US government's actions as 'distressing', 'obviously distressing', and 'theatre'. These words imply a negative bias towards the US government's position on Israel and its actions in Gaza. The author also quotes Hassan El-Tayyab, who expresses his own opinion that the US is complicit in war crimes. This quote is not an assertion by the author but rather a reflection of El-Tayyab's perspective.
    • And these two realities don’t line up at all.
      • It's obviously distressing seeing the US complicity in these horrific war crimes.
      • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication