Japanese Yen Surges: Suspected Intervention Triggers Speculation Amid Uncertainty on BOJ's Next Move

Tokyo, Japan Japan
Authorities may intervene to prevent excessive yen rises from affecting households via rising living costs
Bank of Japan has not confirmed any intervention
Japanese yen surges against dollar
Suspected intervention by Japanese authorities
Traders suspect intervention occurred on Monday when Japanese markets were closed and in early Asian hours on Thursday
Yen fell below 160-to-the-dollar line after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's statement on interest rate hike
Japanese Yen Surges: Suspected Intervention Triggers Speculation Amid Uncertainty on BOJ's Next Move

In recent developments, the Japanese yen has experienced a significant surge against the dollar, sparking speculation about Japan's tactics based on the latest suspected yen intervention. The yen fell below the crucial 160-to-the-dollar line after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the currency's recent declines had little immediate impact on prices, leading traders to believe that a near-term interest rate hike was unlikely. Japanese policymakers have said that the weak yen hurts the economy by boosting import costs, suggesting they could intervene not only to stem sharp moves but also to prevent excessive yen rises from affecting households via rising living costs. Traders suspect that Japanese authorities stepped in on two occasions this week, both at unusual timings: on Monday when Japanese markets were closed for a holiday and shortly after the U.S. stock market closed in early Asian hours on Thursday. Authorities' new line-in-the-sand for intervention seems to be focused on the speed rather than the level of yen depreciation, with the 160 yen to the dollar mark considered a trigger for intervention. Daisaku Ueno, chief FX strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, suggests that authorities likely bought yen around 157-159 to the dollar in several stages this week, creating a buffer to defend the 160 mark. The Bank of Japan has not confirmed any intervention but experts continue to analyze the situation and monitor any further developments.



Confidence

80%

Doubts
  • Is there definitive proof of intervention?
  • What is the exact timing and extent of any intervention?

Sources

96%

  • Unique Points
    • US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged sharp movements in the value of the yen this week.
    • Fed hikes weaken the yen relative to the dollar, so Powell’s comments made it easier for yen purchases to move the currency in the other direction.
  • Accuracy
    • The yen surged against the dollar, prompting suspicions of another round of intervention by Japanese authorities to stem the currency's sharp declines.
    • Japanese policymakers have said that the weak yen hurts the economy by boosting import costs, suggesting they could intervene not only to stem sharp moves but also to prevent excessive yen rises from affecting households via rising living costs.
    • Traders suspect Japanese authorities stepped in on two occasions this week, both at unusual timings: on Monday when Japanese markets were closed for a holiday and shortly after the U.S. stock market closed in early Asian hours on Thursday.
    • Authorities new line-in-the-sand for intervention seems to be focused on the speed rather than the level of yen depreciation. The 160 yen to the dollar mark is considered a trigger for intervention.
    • Daisaku Ueno, chief FX strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, suggests authorities likely bought yen around 157-159 to the dollar in several stages this week, creating a buffer to defend the 160 mark.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

96%

  • Unique Points
    • Japanese policymakers have said that the weak yen hurts the economy by boosting import costs, suggesting they could intervene not only to stem sharp moves but also to prevent excessive yen rises from affecting households via rising living costs.
    • Traders suspect Japanese authorities stepped in on two occasions this week, both at unusual timings: on Monday when Japanese markets were closed for a holiday and shortly after the U.S. stock market closed in early Asian hours on Thursday.
    • Japanese authorities are now said to intervene at any time of the day, regardless of whether Tokyo markets are open, if they see the need to prevent sharp moves in the yen.
    • Authorities’ new line-in-the-sand for intervention seems to be focused on the speed rather than the level of yen depreciation. The 160 yen to the dollar mark is considered a trigger for intervention.
    • Daisaku Ueno, chief FX strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, suggests authorities likely bought yen around 157-159 to the dollar in several stages this week, creating a buffer to defend the 160 mark.
  • Accuracy
    • The yen surged against the dollar, prompting suspicions of another round of intervention by Japanese authorities to stem the currency’s sharp declines.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (90%)
    The article contains some inflammatory rhetoric and appeals to authority, but no formal or informal fallacies were found. The author provides information on Japan's suspected currency intervention tactics without making any additional claims that would constitute a fallacy.
    • ]REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File photo A banknote of Japanese yen is seen in this illustration picture taken June 15, 2022.
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

97%

  • Unique Points
    • Japan likely intervened on Monday to arrest what top currency diplomat Masato Kanda described as
    • Traders suspect Japanese authorities stepped in on two occasions this week, both at unusual timings:
  • Accuracy
    • The yen surged against the dollar, prompting suspicions of another round of Japanese intervention to curb the currency's sharp declines.
    • Traders suspect Japanese authorities stepped in on two occasions this week, both at unusual timings: on Monday when Japanese markets were closed for a holiday and shortly after the U.S. stock market closed in early Asian hours on Thursday.
    • Japanese policymakers have said that the weak yen hurts the economy by boosting import costs, suggesting they could intervene not only to stem sharp moves but also to prevent excessive yen rises from affecting households via rising living costs.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication