Joe Biden Leads Donald Trump in Polls by Six Points, but Falls Short in Georgia

Rollinsville, Colorado, Colorado United States of America
Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the polls with 44% of the vote share.
Trump holds a seven million vote lead over Biden among Republicans who have already voted. He also has an eight million vote lead over the president among white voters without college degrees.
Joe Biden Leads Donald Trump in Polls by Six Points, but Falls Short in Georgia

Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the polls with 44% of the vote share. The incumbent president has a six-point lead over Trump in North Carolina, five-point edge in Arizona, four-point advantage in Nevada and three-point leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania. However, he only edges out Trump by one point in Georgia.

Trump holds a seven million vote lead over Biden among Republicans who have already voted. He also has an eight million vote lead over the president among white voters without college degrees.



Confidence

70%

Doubts
  • It's unclear if the seven million vote lead among Republicans who have already voted is representative of the overall voter population.
  • The eight million vote lead among white voters without college degrees may not be accurate as it only represents a specific demographic.

Sources

82%

  • Unique Points
    • Former President Donald Trump tops President Biden in all but one of the crucial battleground states that will likely decide their 2024 rematch, according to new polling.
    • Trump holds a six-point lead over Biden in North Carolina in a ballot that also includes third-party and independent candidates. He has a five-point lead in Arizona, four-point edge in Nevada, three-point advantages in Michigan and Pennsylvania. The former president edges the White House incumbent by a single point in Georgia.
    • Trump rakes in hefty March fundraising haul as campaign aims to close cash gap with Biden.
  • Accuracy
    • Biden narrowly edged Trump on all battlegrounds tested except North Carolina, according to the survey.
  • Deception (80%)
    The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the headline claims that Trump leads Biden by a single point in Georgia and they are tied in Wisconsin when this is not true according to the poll results provided. Secondly, it states that voters have a negative job performance rating for Biden but no such information was given about Trump's job performance rating. Thirdly, it mentions Jill Biden dismissing the dismal WSJ polling results which contradicts what was stated in the article itself.
    • The headline claims that Trump leads Biden by a single point in Georgia and they are tied in Wisconsin when this is not true according to the poll results provided.
    • Jill Biden dismisses the dismal WSJ polling results which contradicts what was stated in the article itself.
    • It states that voters have a negative job performance rating for Biden but no such information was given about Trump's job performance rating.
  • Fallacies (75%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

85%

  • Unique Points
    • The election was marked by widespread mail and early voting, which allowed more people to vote safely during the pandemic.
    • Former President Donald Trump tops President Biden in all but one of the crucial battleground states that will likely decide their 2024 rematch
    • . The incumbent president, Joe Biden, is leading Donald Trump in the polls with 44% of the vote share.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (85%)
    The article contains several fallacies. Firstly, the author uses an appeal to authority by citing Pew Research Center as a credible source for their analysis of the 2020 electorate. However, this does not necessarily mean that their findings are accurate or unbiased. Secondly, there is a dichotomous depiction of voter turnout in the article when it states that
    • Amid a global pandemic,
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
    The article 'Behind Biden's 2020 Victory' by Ruth Igielnik, Scott Keeter and Hannah Hartig has several examples of conflicts of interest. The authors have a professional affiliation with Pew Research Center which may compromise their ability to act objectively and impartially on the topic.
    • The article was published on Pew Research Center's website.
    • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
      None Found At Time Of Publication

    75%

    • Unique Points
      • . The incumbent president, Joe Biden, is leading Donald Trump in the polls with 44% of the vote share.
      • The pair are tied among independents, both receiving 34% of the vote share. This represents the first time Trump hasn't led among this group of voters.
    • Accuracy
      • Former President Donald Trump tops President Biden in all but one of the crucial battleground states that will likely decide their 2024 rematch, according to new polling.
    • Deception (50%)
      The article is deceptive because it presents a false impression of Biden's lead over Trump in the polls. The author uses phrases like 'stunning', 'first time', and 'net 7-point swing' to create an exaggerated sense of change and momentum for Biden, without providing any context or evidence for these claims. The author also omits important information about the margin of error, which suggests that the poll results are not statistically significant or reliable. Additionally, the author does not mention other polls that show Trump leading or being competitive in key states. By using emotional language and selective reporting, the author is trying to influence readers' opinions and expectations without giving them a balanced view of the race.
      • The article cites two Morning Consult polls as evidence for its claims, but it does not disclose that they were conducted within the same week (March 29-31) or that they have different sample sizes and margins of error. This could be a deceptive way of making the poll results seem more consistent and reliable than they actually are.
      • The article claims that this is the first time Trump hasn't led among independents in polling, but it does not provide any source or data for this assertion. This could be a lie by omission, as there may be other sources that show different results or trends among independent voters.
      • The article quotes Heath Brown, an associate professor of public policy at City University of New York, but it does not mention his political affiliation or bias. This could be a deceptive way of giving undue credibility to a source that may have ulterior motives or agendas.
      • The article says Biden has gained 7 points since January 21, but it does not specify what the previous poll was based on or how it compares to other polls from that time period. This could be a deceptive way of creating a false sense of change and progress for Biden's campaign.
    • Fallacies (85%)
      The article contains several fallacies. The first is an appeal to authority when it states that the incumbent president is leading with 44 percent of the vote share and Trump is projected to garner 42 percent of the vote share in a poll by Morning Consult. This statement implies that these numbers are accurate without providing any evidence or context for their reliability. The second fallacy is inflammatory rhetoric when it states that this represents the first time Trump has not led among independent voters, implying that he always leads among them and making the reader believe there is something significant about this change.
      • The incumbent president is leading with 44 percent of the vote share.
      • This represents the first time Trump has not led among independent voters.
    • Bias (85%)
      The article is biased towards Joe Biden by presenting him as leading Donald Trump in polls for the first time. The author also quotes experts who suggest that the race is too close to call and that there has been a net swing towards Biden. Additionally, the article mentions previous polls showing a similar trend without providing any context or comparison with current polling data.
      • President Joe Biden has received positive polling news
        • The incumbent president is leading with 44 percent of the vote share
          • While that remains the case and things could change between now and November, according to polling from Morning Consult, the incumbent president is leading with 44 percent of the vote share.
            • With this latest polling included, this shows there has been a net 7-point swing towards Biden.
            • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
              None Found At Time Of Publication
            • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
              None Found At Time Of Publication