June Jobs Report: 190,000 New Hires Expected as Labor Market Slows Down Amid Inflation and Interest Rate Concerns

Washington D.C., District of Columbia United States of America
Approximately 190,000 new jobs expected in June jobs report
Business activity slowing down with PCE price index at 2.6% annual rate in May
First-time claims for unemployment benefits increased by 4,000 last week to 238,000
Hiring rate has slowed significantly with layoff activity climbing higher in recent weeks
Labor market showing signs of normalization with inflation cooling down and interest rates elevated
Unemployment remains low at 4% but concerns about potential worsening due to high inflation and ongoing interest-rate hiking campaign
June Jobs Report: 190,000 New Hires Expected as Labor Market Slows Down Amid Inflation and Interest Rate Concerns

The June jobs report, released on July 5, 2024, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is expected to show a slowdown in hiring with approximately 190,000 new jobs added. This figure represents a decrease from the previous month's gain of 272,000 jobs. The labor market has been robust for some time but is now showing signs of normalization as inflation cools down and interest rates remain elevated.

Business activity has been slowing down, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) climbing at an annual rate of 2.6% in May, which is the lowest since March 2021. The Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, has acknowledged that risks to their inflation and employment goals have come closer to balance.

Despite these developments, economists remain optimistic about the labor market's overall strength. Unemployment remains low at 4%, a historically low level not exceeded for over two years. However, there are concerns about its potential worsening from here due to high inflation and the ongoing interest-rate-hiking campaign.

The hiring rate, which tracks the number of hires during a month as a percentage of overall employment, has slowed significantly. Layoff activity has been climbing steadily higher in recent weeks. Last week, there were an estimated 238,000 first-time claims filed for unemployment benefits, an increase of 4,000 from the week before. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment is up about 200,0 people on a three-month average basis compared to last year.

The June jobs report will provide valuable insights into the current state of the labor market and its potential future direction. Economists will closely monitor this data to assess whether the labor market is continuing to slow or if it is showing signs of resilience.


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Confidence

86%

Doubts
  • Is the hiring rate's significant slowdown a temporary trend or a sign of long-term labor market weakness?
  • What impact will ongoing inflation have on unemployment in the future?

Sources

85%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

What to expect from the June jobs report

CNN News Site: In-Depth Reporting and Analysis with Some Financial Conflicts and Sensational Language Alicia Wallace Friday, 05 July 2024 09:30
  • Unique Points
    • The labor market has normalized but there’s a concern about it worsening from here
    • People aren’t as willing to test the waters and are staying put in their current jobs
    • Layoff activity has been climbing steadily higher in recent weeks
    • Last week, there were an estimated 238,000 first-time claims filed for unemployment benefits, an increase of 4,000 from the week before
    • Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment is up about 200,0 people on a three-month average basis compared to last year
  • Accuracy
    • Economists anticipate the US added 190,000 jobs last month
    • Economists expect the unemployment rate to hold at 4%.
    • Monthly job gains have frequently come in stronger than expected and unemployment has held at or below 4% for 30 consecutive months
    • There are fewer job openings and hiring has pulled back
  • Deception (50%)
    The article does not present any clear deception but it does have some misleading aspects. The author presents the expected job numbers as a gradual cooling rather than strong and steady growth which could be seen as misleading by omission. Additionally, the author quotes experts without disclosing their potential biases or affiliations which can lead to a lack of transparency.
    • CNN -- Economists don't believe job gains will fall off a cliff...
    • the job market of today is far different than it was 30 months ago.
    • The US labor market has held its own despite swirling forces...
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

83%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Friday's jobs report expected to show slowing payroll gains as concern rises about broader economy

CNBC News Jeff Cox Thursday, 04 July 2024 12:45
  • Unique Points
    • First-quarter growth was at a 1.4% annualized pace and second-quarter growth is tracking at just 1.5%.
    • The May unemployment rate is now 0.5 percentage point above its lowest level of 3.5% in July 2023, potentially triggering a recession indicator called the Sahm Rule.
  • Accuracy
    • The June nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show growth of 200,000 jobs.
    • Economists anticipate the US added 190,000 jobs last month
    • The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4%
  • Deception (70%)
    The article contains editorializing and selective reporting. The author expresses his own opinions about the significance of the jobs report and the potential economic conditions, while also quoting an economist's perspective. However, he does not disclose any sources for these quotes or perspectives. Additionally, he focuses on certain data points that support his narrative of economic uncertainty and potential weakness, while omitting other information that may contradict this view.
    • Under normal circumstances, a 4% unemployment rate would be cause for celebration, not concern. However, what is catching the eye of some economists is where the rate is now compared with where it’s been over the past year.
    • Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the report, to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, to show growth of 200,000, down from the 272,000 reported for May.
    • The jobless level in May did nudge higher to 4%, the first time it hit that threshold since January 2022.
    • With signs building that the labor market is at least slowing if not something worse, the June nonfarm payrolls report takes on added significance.
  • Fallacies (85%)
    The article contains a few informal fallacies and appeals to authority. It also uses inflammatory rhetoric by mentioning the possibility of a recession without providing direct quotes or evidence to support this claim.
    • This is a report that's coming at a point where there's a little more uncertainty about the economic landscape than there has been in a few months.
    • Specifically, I'm thinking more about the unemployment rate, which has been slowly trending up.
    • While there are scant data signs that a recession is at hand, the trend in unemployment is generating some attention.
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

83%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

USD, Nonfarm outlook: A weak payrolls report may not be a slam dunk

FOREX.com Matt Simpson Friday, 05 July 2024 11:39
  • Unique Points
    • The US economy is showing signs of slowing down.
    • Core PCE and super core PCE surprised with lower than expected figures last week.
  • Accuracy
    • Economists anticipate the US added 190,000 jobs last month
    • Monthly job gains have frequently come in stronger than expected and unemployment has held at or below 4% for 30 consecutive months
  • Deception (70%)
    The author uses editorializing and selective reporting to create a narrative that the US economy is slowing down and that a weak NFP report is likely. He quotes several economic indicators to support his argument but fails to mention any contradictory data or perspectives. He also implies that the Fed's rate cuts are dependent on the NFP report, which could be seen as an attempt to manipulate emotions and expectations.
    • The USD index tends to close the day relative to whether NFP has been above or below expectations
    • And if unemployment throws a curveball into the mix with a print of 4.1% or higher, bears could get to work much sooner than later.
    • If we once again head to NFP report on expectations for it to soften.
    • Recent economic data has raised expectations for a weak NFP report
  • Fallacies (85%)
    The author uses an appeal to statistics multiple times in the article, implying that a weak NFP report is likely based on recent economic data. However, he also acknowledges that the NFP report has a tendency to surprise to the upside and provides examples of this occurrence. This creates an inconsistency and makes it difficult to determine if the author's assertions are based on logical reasoning or just statistics.
    • Recent economic data has raised expectations for a weak NFP report
    • The USD index tends to close the day relative to whether NFP has been expectations (bullish USD) or was below them (bearish USD)
    • Looking at how the USD has reacted over the longer-term shows that it tends to benefit the following Monday (T+1) and Tuesday (T+2) before bearish momentum returns on the Wednesday (T+3)
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

96%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

June jobs report expected to show a steadily cooling labor market

NBC News Digital Friday, 05 July 2024 11:40
  • Unique Points
    • Business activity is slowing down and inflation is cooling down. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index climbed 2.6% from a year ago in May, the lowest annual rate since March 2021.
    • Fed Chair Jerome Powell said risks to its inflation and employment goals have come back closer to balance.
  • Accuracy
    • The June jobs report is expected to show employers added about 200,000 nonfarm jobs.
    • Economists anticipate the US added 190,000 jobs last month
    • Unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4%
    • The labor market has normalized but there’s a concern about it worsening from here
    • If job gains continue to show a gradual cooling, the economy is in good shape
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

95%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

U.S. Jobs Report Expected to Show Slower Pace of Hiring: Live Updates

The Name Of The NZ Prefix. I PWA NZI.P.Was Dropped. Talmon Joseph Friday, 05 July 2024 09:02
  • Unique Points
    • Interest rates have remained elevated longer than many businesses had hoped, making loans for small businesses more expensive and crimping their ability to expand.
    • Credit card delinquencies have risen among lower-income households contending with higher prices.
  • Accuracy
    • The monthly employment report is projected to show that employers added 190,000 jobs in June.
    • Economists anticipate the US added 190,000 jobs last month
    • The labor market has maintained surprising vigor over the past year but as fewer jobs go unfilled and a growing number of people linger on unemployment insurance rosters, Federal Reserve officials have begun to watch for cracks.
    • Business activity is slowing down.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication