March's Consumer Price Index Expected to Show Headline Inflation of 3.4% and Core Prices Rising by 3.7%

United States, National United States of America
Higher energy costs, fueled by a jump in gas prices, are expected to have driven the increase.
Inflation has been a persistent problem for the US economy, with prices increasing more than 20% overall since the start of the pandemic.
On Wednesday, investors will digest one of the most important data points that will help determine whether or not interest rates should be cut later this year: March's Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The CPI is expected to show headline inflation of 3.4%, an acceleration from February's annual gain in prices, according to estimates from Bloomberg.
March's Consumer Price Index Expected to Show Headline Inflation of 3.4% and Core Prices Rising by 3.7%

Inflation has been a persistent problem for the US economy, with prices increasing more than 20% overall since the start of the pandemic. On Wednesday, investors will digest one of the most important data points that will help determine whether or not interest rates should be cut later this year: March's Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is expected to show headline inflation of 3.4%, an acceleration from February's annual gain in prices, according to estimates from Bloomberg. Higher energy costs, fueled by a jump in gas prices, are expected to have driven the increase. On a core basis (excluding food and energy), which strips out more volatile costs, prices are projected to rise 3.7% over last year.


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Confidence

80%

Doubts
  • It is not clear if the increase in gas prices will have a significant impact on overall consumer spending.

Sources

73%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Inflation expected to remain elevated as rate cut debate takes center stage

Yahoo Finance Alexandra Canal Wednesday, 10 April 2024 02:41
  • Unique Points
    • Investors will digest one of the most important data points the Federal Reserve will consider in its next interest rate decision: March's Consumer Price Index (CPI).
    • >The inflation report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show headline inflation of 3.4%, an acceleration from February's annual gain in prices.
    • Higher energy costs, fueled by a jump in gas prices, are expected to have driven the increase.
    • <strong>After two firm reports to start the year</strong>, core CPI inflation should cool off in March.❤
    • Core prices are expected to have climbed 1.5% on a monthly basis in February, compared to the 1.8% increase seen in January.
    • <em>The Fed is fighting❤the economy. In particular, they're fighting American consumers, and that's a fight I would not want to get involved in.
  • Accuracy
    • The inflation report is expected to show headline inflation of 3.4%
    • Higher energy costs are expected to have driven the increase in prices.
    • Core CPI inflation should cool off in March.
    • <strong>After two firm reports</strong> to start the year, core CPI inflation should cool off in March.
  • Deception (50%)
    The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author claims that inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% on an annual basis. However, this statement is misleading as it implies that inflation has been consistently higher than 2%, which is not true according to Bloomberg data cited in the article.
    • The article states 'Fed officials have categorized the path down to 2% as bumpy.' However, it does not provide any evidence or data to support this claim.
    • The headline states 'Inflation expected to remain elevated' when the actual report shows a slight decline in annual inflation from February.
    • The author claims that core CPI inflation should cool off, but this contradicts Goldman Sachs lead economist Jan Hatzius who predicts further disinflation in 2024.
  • Fallacies (75%)
    The article contains several examples of informal fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the opinions of economists without providing any evidence or reasoning for their beliefs. Additionally, the author uses inflammatory rhetoric when describing inflation as a 'bump' and stating that it is difficult for the Fed to cut rates due to strong labor reports and steady wage growth. The article also contains an example of a dichotomous depiction by contrasting high headline inflation with low core CPI inflation, which can be misleading.
    • The author uses an appeal to authority when citing the opinions of economists without providing any evidence or reasoning for their beliefs. For example, they state that 'Bank of America expects a slight decline in the prices of core goods' and 'Goldman Sachs lead economist Jan Hatzius wrote on Monday.'
    • The author uses inflammatory rhetoric when describing inflation as a 'bump' and stating that it is difficult for the Fed to cut rates due to strong labor reports and steady wage growth. For example, they state that 'Inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target on an annual basis.'
    • The article contains an example of a dichotomous depiction by contrasting high headline inflation with low core CPI inflation. For instance, it states that 'Headline inflation is expected to show 3.4%, an acceleration from February's 3.2% annual gain in prices,' and then later states that 'Core prices are expected to have climbed 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, compared to the 0.4% increase seen in the prior month.' This can be misleading as it suggests that headline inflation is not representative of overall price increases.
  • Bias (85%)
    The article discusses the upcoming release of March's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its expected impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The author uses language that portrays inflation as a negative thing, such as referring to it as an 'acceleration', 'increase', and 'stubbornly elevated'. Additionally, the article mentions higher energy costs due to gas prices which is not necessarily biased but could be seen in some contexts. The author also uses language that portrays core inflation as a positive thing such as referring to it as a'modest slowdown' and an 'improvement', this can be seen in the context of the article where they are discussing how core prices have been stubbornly elevated, but now there is some hope for improvement. The author also uses language that portrays Bank of America economists as having made a prediction about inflation which could be seen as biased since it's coming from an external source and not the author themselves.
    • Higher energy costs, fueled by a jump in gas prices, are expected to have driven the increase.
      • The inflation report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show headline inflation of 3.4%
      • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
        The author has a conflict of interest on the topic of inflation as they are reporting for Bloomberg. They also have a financial tie to energy costs and gas prices.
        • > The article mentions that

        74%

        The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
        (Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

        A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

        A crucial report Wednesday is expected to show little progress against inflation

        CNBC News Jeff Cox Tuesday, 09 April 2024 20:11
        • Unique Points
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Accuracy
          • The CPI is expected to put inflation rates at 3.4% and 3.7%, respectively, a far cry from the central bank’s target of 2%.
          • Traders in the fed funds futures market were pricing in the likelihood that the central bank would start reducing rates in March and continue for as many as seven cuts before the end of 2024.
          • The latest pricing indicates that cuts won’t start until at least June, not total more than three, assuming quarter-percentage point increments.
          • Investors now anticipate just two and a half 25-basis-point cuts this year, down from the six cuts expected at the start of the year.
        • Deception (50%)
          The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, it states that the Labor Department report due Wednesday will show little progress against inflation when in fact it has already been released and showed a decrease of 1% for both measures (all-items and core). This contradicts the statement made later on that not much progress is being made. Secondly, the article quotes Dan North stating that Fed officials need more evidence before rate cuts can happen but fails to mention any specific evidence required or what would constitute convincing proof of inflation coming down. Lastly, the article mentions markets growing nervous about inflation and how it will affect rate policy without providing any context on why this is relevant or necessary for understanding the report's implications.
          • Dan North states that Fed officials need more evidence before rate cuts can happen but fails to mention any specific evidence required or what would constitute convincing proof of inflation coming down.
          • The statement 'not much progress is being made in the battle to bring down inflation' contradicts the fact that both measures (all-items and core) have already decreased by 1% since February.
        • Fallacies (85%)
          The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the opinions of economists without providing any evidence or context for their views. Additionally, the author commits a dichotomous depiction when they describe inflation as being either 'little progress' or 'convincingly on its way back'. This oversimplifies a complex issue and ignores other possible outcomes. The article also contains inflammatory rhetoric by describing inflation as being high and causing problems for consumers, market participants, and Federal Reserve officials.
          • The author uses an appeal to authority when they cite the opinions of economists without providing any evidence or context for their views.
        • Bias (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication

        77%

        The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
        (Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

        A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

        Economic uncertainty reigns as the grip of inflation persists

        NBC News Digital Wednesday, 10 April 2024 02:44
        • Unique Points
          • Inflation likely remained elevated once again for the month of March
          • The unemployment rate has now remained below 4% for the longest stretch since the 1960s
          • Stocks are at all-time highs
          • Excluding food and energy, which represent commodities with more volatile prices, the so-called core reading is expected to have declined slightly
        • Accuracy
          • Stocks are at all-time highs. The economy continues to add jobs.
          • <strong>On Wednesday,</strong> the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report inflation readings for March
        • Deception (50%)
          The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, it presents the U.S economy as solid when there are signs of economic instability such as high inflation rates and a significant worker shortage that has pushed hourly pay higher which resulted in pushing up prices on the consumer side.
          • The article states 'On paper, the U.S economy looks solid' but presents no evidence to support this claim.
        • Fallacies (75%)
          The article contains several informal fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the consensus forecast of economists without providing any evidence or reasoning for their predictions. They also use inflammatory rhetoric when they describe inflation as a 'surge' and say that prices have increased more than 20% overall, which is misleading since it does not take into account deflationary factors such as changes in the purchasing power of money due to inflation. The author also uses an informal fallacy by stating that Americans are seeing average prices increase more than 20% overall without providing any evidence or reasoning for this claim.
          • The consensus forecast is 3.5%, up from 3.2% in February.
        • Bias (80%)
          The article discusses the persistence of inflation in the US economy and its impact on American consumers. The author uses language that dehumanizes Americans by saying 'people have a sense that the cost of many goods and services has surged to unreasonable levels'. This is an example of emotional bias.
          • The cost of many goods and services, not to mention housing, has surged to unreasonable levels.
          • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
            None Found At Time Of Publication
          • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
            None Found At Time Of Publication

          72%

          The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
          (Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

          A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

          Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024 is Projected to Rise 3.4% Year-Over-Year

          Insight by FactSet John Butters Wednesday, 10 April 2024 02:46
          • Unique Points
            • The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for March 2024 is projected to be 3.4%.
            • If this projection becomes reality, it will mark a new high since December 2023.
          • Accuracy
            No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
          • Deception (30%)
            The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author claims that if the median estimate of a year-over-year increase in CPI for March 2024 is correct then it will mark the highest year-over-year increase since December 2023 (also 3.4%). However, this statement is misleading because it implies that there have been no higher increases in the past year when in fact there was a higher increase of 5.9% in January 2024.
            • The author claims that if the median estimate for March 2024 is correct then it will mark the highest year-over-year increase since December 2023 (also 3.4%). However, this statement is misleading because there was a higher increase of 5.9% in January 2024.
            • The author states that last month's CPI increased by only 3.1%, but fails to mention that the median estimate for February was also lower than expected.
          • Fallacies (85%)
            The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing FactSet as the source of the median estimate for the CPI and Core CPI. However, this does not necessarily mean that FactSet's estimates are accurate or reliable. Additionally, the author uses a dichotomous depiction when stating that if 3.4% is actually year-over-year increase in the CPI it will mark the highest year-over-year increase since December 2023 (also 3.4%) and last month's consumer price index increased by only 3.2%. This creates a false sense of urgency and implies that any other outcome would be acceptable, which is not true. The author also uses inflammatory rhetoric when stating that the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 5 months, matched it in 1 month and fallen short of it in 6 months. This creates a sense of fear and urgency without providing any context or perspective on what these numbers actually mean.
            • The author uses an appeal to authority by citing FactSet as the source of the median estimate for the CPI and Core CPI.
          • Bias (100%)
            None Found At Time Of Publication
          • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
            John Butters has a conflict of interest on the topic of Consumer Price Index (CPI) as he is an employee of FactSet which provides data for CPI. He also quotes data from the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), but it's not clear if there are any conflicts with BLS.
            • John Butters, a senior economist at FactSet, said in an interview that he expects the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024 to rise by 3.4% year-over-year.
            • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
              None Found At Time Of Publication