March Home Sales Decline: Rising Mortgage Rates Pause Buyer Activity, Inventory Improves Slightly

Larchmont, New York, New York United States of America
First-time homebuyers accounted for 32% of all sales in March, up from 26% in February and 28% higher than the same time last year.
Homes sales dropped by 4.3% in March compared to February, resulting in a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.19 million units.
Inventory has slightly improved with a 4.7% month-to-month increase to 1.11 million homes for sale at the end of March.
Median price of an existing home increased to $393,500 in March, up 4.8% from the previous year and marking a new record high for the month.
Mortgage rates are expected to rise further this month, with the average rate on the 30-year fixed loan hovering around 7.5%.
March Home Sales Decline: Rising Mortgage Rates Pause Buyer Activity, Inventory Improves Slightly

In March, homes sales dropped significantly despite a surge in supply. This decline can be attributed to rising mortgage rates, which are likely causing potential buyers to pause their home search. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales fell by 4.3% in March compared to the previous month, resulting in a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.19 million units. This drop comes after a significant increase in sales during February. Mortgage rates have remained relatively steady but are still hovering around mid-6% range on popular 30-year fixed loans. Regionally, sales declined everywhere except the Northeast, which saw a slight increase in contracts signed during this period. The median price of an existing home also increased to $393,500 in March, up 4.8% from the previous year and marking a new record high for the month of March. Inventory has slightly improved with a 4.7% month-to-month increase to 1.11 million homes for sale at the end of March, representing a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a supply of 2.7 months in the same period last year. Despite these changes, home prices have not been affected and continue to rise steadily.

One positive development is an increase in first-time homebuyers who accounted for 32% of all sales in March, up from 26% in February and 28% higher than the same time last year. All-cash purchases also saw a slight decrease, accounting for 28% of sales compared to 33% in February but an increase from the pre-pandemic rate of around 20%. Mortgage rates are expected to rise further this month, with the average rate on the 30-year fixed loan hovering around 7.5%, according to Mortgage News Daily. Despite these challenges, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, remains optimistic about the housing market's ability to rebound as interest rates make minor movements.

In summary, the decline in home sales in March can be attributed to high mortgage rates and rising home prices. However, an increase in first-time homebuyers and a slight improvement in inventory offer some hope for the struggling housing market.



Confidence

86%

Doubts
  • Are there any regional variations that could impact the overall trend?
  • Is the decline in sales solely due to mortgage rates or are there other factors at play?

Sources

98%

  • Unique Points
    • Sales of previously owned homes dropped 4.3% in March compared with February, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.19 million units.
    • Mortgage rates stayed lower in January, in the mid 6% range on the popular 30-year fixed loan.
    • Sales fell hardest in the West, down 8.2%.
    • Inventory did improve slightly, rising 4.7% month to month to 1.11 million homes for sale at the end of March.
  • Accuracy
    • The inventory of previously-owned homes for sale increased by 14.4% from the previous year to 1.11 million.
    • The median price of an existing home sold in March was $393,500, up 4.8% from the year before.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

97%

  • Unique Points
    • Sales of previously-owned homes in the US decreased by 4.3% from the previous month to a rate of 4.19 million.
    • NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated that home sales are stuck due to high interest rates.
    • Mortgage rates have risen above 7% and remain more than twice as high as at the end of 2021.
    • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer to reduce inflation.
    • The inventory of previously-owned homes for sale increased by 14.4% from the previous year to 1.11 million.
    • At the current sales pace, it would take 3.2 months to sell all existing homes on the market, compared with a supply of 2.7 months in March of last year.
    • The median selling price for previously-owned homes increased by 4.8% from the previous year to $393,500.
  • Accuracy
    • Sales of previously-owned homes decreased by 4.3% from the previous month to a rate of 4.19 million.
    • Properties remained on the market for an average of 33 days in March, down from 38 days in February.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (95%)
    The article contains some instances of appeals to authority and inflammatory rhetoric, but no formal logical fallacies were found. The author quotes Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), multiple times throughout the article to support his claims about existing-home sales and mortgage rates. This is a valid use of an appeal to authority as Yun is an expert in his field and holds a position that lends credibility to his statements. However, the author also uses inflammatory language such as 'lingering impact' and 'hindering recent momentum' when describing the effect of high mortgage rates on home sales. This type of rhetoric can be emotionally manipulative but does not constitute a logical fallacy.
    • ][Bloomberg] -- Sales of previously-owned homes in the US fell in March from a one-year high, underscoring the lingering impact of high mortgage rates and elevated prices.[/]
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

94%

  • Unique Points
    • Sales of previously owned homes in the United States fell in March as home prices climbed and mortgage rates held steady that month.
    • The sharpest drop in more than a year occurred, with existing home sales falling 4.3%.
    • The median price of an existing home was $393,500 last month, an increase of 4.8% from a year earlier and the highest March price on record.
    • Sales fell across the country except in the Northeast region, which saw an increase for the first time since November 2023.
    • Mortgage rates play a key role in determining housing affordability and that home sales are stuck because interest rates have not made any major moves.
    • One bright spot is an increase in first-time homebuyers, who represented 32% of all transactions in March, up from 26% in February and 28% higher than a year ago.
  • Accuracy
    • Sales fell everywhere except in the Northeast, where they rose 4.2% month to month.
    • The median price of an existing home sold in March was $393,500, up 4.8% from the year before.
    • Mortgage rates have moved even higher this month, with the average rate on the 30-year fixed hovering around 7.5%.
  • Deception (80%)
    The article provides factual information about the decrease in home sales and increase in median home prices. However, there are some instances of editorializing and selective reporting that could potentially mislead readers. The author states 'reflecting the persistent pain of America’s affordability woes' and 'Americans are still dealing with a tough housing market.' These statements imply that the decreased sales and increased prices are solely due to affordability issues, when in reality there may be other factors at play. Additionally, the author quotes Lawrence Yun making predictions about future interest rates and home sales without disclosing that he is the chief economist of NAR. This could give readers a biased perspective on the situation.
    • That may be because people heard about the lawsuit settlement where the buyers possibly need to come up with extra funds to pay up some professional representation, but they want to do it before the new rules takes place sometime in July.
    • Americans are still dealing with a tough housing market.
    • reflecting the persistent pain of America’s affordability woes
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication