Microsoft's Fear of Falling Behind in AI: The Internal Email that Changed Microsoft-OpenAI Relations

Redacted, Redacted United States of America
CTO Kevin Scott expressed concerns to CEO Satya Nadella and co-founder Bill Gates in an internal email titled 'Thoughts on OpenAI'
Google's early adoption of AI models gave it a significant competitive advantage against Microsoft's Bing search engine
Microsoft fell behind Google in AI development due to insufficient infrastructure
Microsoft invested over $13 billion in OpenAI and integrated its models into various products to be seen as a leader in AI instead of falling behind
Microsoft's Fear of Falling Behind in AI: The Internal Email that Changed Microsoft-OpenAI Relations

Microsoft Corporation, a leading technology company, found itself falling behind in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) development due to Google's early advancements. This concern was expressed by Microsoft's Chief Technology Officer (CTO), Kevin Scott, in an internal email to CEO Satya Nadella and co-founder Bill Gates on June 12, 2019. In the email titled 'Thoughts on OpenAI,' Scott detailed how Microsoft engineers took six months to replicate Google's BERT language model due to insufficient infrastructure for training models.

Scott initially dismissed AI efforts at OpenAI and Google DeepMind as mere 'game-playing stunts.' However, his perspective changed when he assessed the capability gaps between the two companies in natural language processing models. He became increasingly concerned about Microsoft's position in the market and expressed his worries to Nadella and Gates.

Google's early adoption of AI models gave it a significant competitive advantage against Microsoft's Bing search engine, specifically in autocomplete features. This edge was one of the factors that motivated Microsoft to invest heavily in OpenAI.

Microsoft CFO Amy Hood was also involved in discussions about the investment. Bill Gates reportedly played a role in brokering the deal between Microsoft and OpenAI since at least 2016.

Since then, Microsoft has invested over $13 billion in OpenAI and integrated its models into various products, including Office apps, Bing search engine, Edge browser, and Windows operating system. This strategic move has helped Microsoft be seen as a leader in AI instead of falling behind as it once feared.



Confidence

96%

Doubts
  • Did Bill Gates play a significant role in brokering the deal between Microsoft and OpenAI before 2016?
  • Was the six-month delay in replicating Google's BERT language model due solely to insufficient infrastructure?

Sources

77%

  • Unique Points
    • In 2019, Microsoft became concerned about Google’s capabilities in artificial intelligence.
  • Accuracy
    • Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI due to fears of being years behind Google in machine learning scale.
  • Deception (30%)
    The authors make selective statements about Google's AI capabilities by focusing on specific examples like 'auto-complete in Gmail' and 'BERT-like models', while ignoring Microsoft's own limitations. They also use emotional language to describe their concerns, such as being 'very, very worried'. The article does not disclose any peer-reviewed studies or sources to back up these claims.
    • Google had BERT for at least six months prior to that, so in the time that it took us to hack together the capability to train a 340M parameter model, they had a year to figure out how to get it into production and to move on to larger scale, more interesting models.
    • The emails were made public on Tuesday as part of the Department of Justice’s antitrust case against Google. In 2019, Microsoft became ‘very, very worried’ about Google’s capabilities in artificial intelligence
    • One of the Q&A competitive metrics that we watch just jumped by 10 percentage points on Google Search because of BERT-like models.
  • Fallacies (85%)
    The article contains an example of a dichotomous depiction and an appeal to authority. The author presents Google as a powerful competitor in AI development, with Microsoft feeling threatened by their progress. This creates a stark contrast between the two companies and their respective AI capabilities. Additionally, there is an appeal to authority when the author cites emails from Microsoft's chief technology officer, Kevin Scott, discussing his concerns over Google's AI advancements. However, no formal fallacies were found in the text.
    • The thing that’s interesting about what Open AI and Deep Mind and Google Brain are doing is the scale of their ambition...
    • We are already seeing the results of that work in our competitive analysis of their products. One of the Q&A competitive metrics that we watch just jumped by 10 percentage points on Google Search because of BERT-like models...
    • In 2019, Microsoft became "very, very worried" about Google's capabilities in artificial intelligence...
  • Bias (95%)
    The authors express concern over Google's AI capabilities and Microsoft being behind in terms of ML scale. They quote an email from Microsoft's CTO where he mentions being 'very, very worried' about Google's AI-powered auto-complete in Gmail and that Microsoft is 'multiple years behind the competition'. These statements demonstrate a bias towards perceiving Google as a threat and Microsoft as being at a disadvantage.
    • He added that Microsoft was ‘multiple years behind the competition in terms of ML scale.’
      • Microsoft’s chief technology officer, Kevin Scott, told CEO Satya Nadella and Bill Gates that Google’s AI-powered ‘auto-complete in Gmail’ was ‘getting scarily good.’
      • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication

      99%

      • Unique Points
        • Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI in 2019 due to fears of being years behind Google in machine learning scale.
        • , Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott was initially dismissive of AI efforts at OpenAI and Google DeepMind but became concerned after assessing capability gaps.
        • Google’s early use of AI models gave it a competitive advantage against Bing, specifically in autocomplete features.
        • Microsoft CFO Amy Hood was involved in discussions about the investment in OpenAI.
        • Bill Gates reportedly played a role in Microsoft’s relationship with OpenAI since at least 2016 and helped broker the deal.
        • Microsoft has invested over $13 billion in OpenAI and integrated its models into various products, including Office apps, Bing search engine, Edge, and Windows operating system.
      • Accuracy
        • Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI due to fears of being years behind Google in machine learning scale.
        • Google’s early use of AI models gave it a competitive advantage against Bing, specifically in autocomplete features.
      • Deception (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Fallacies (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Bias (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication

      84%

      • Unique Points
        • Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott received an email in mid-June 2019 warning Microsoft was falling behind in AI development compared to Google.
        • ,
      • Accuracy
        • Microsoft invested $1 billion into OpenAI mere weeks later.
      • Deception (30%)
        The article contains editorializing and selective reporting. The author quotes from an internal email to reveal Microsoft's perceived lack of investment in AI compared to Google. However, the author only reports on the parts of the email that support her narrative and ignores other parts that may contradict it or provide context. For instance, she mentions Microsoft's argument for keeping the email hidden due to confidential business information but does not discuss why this might be relevant. Additionally, she presents Scott's concerns as a 'rude awakening' and a 'mistake,' implying that Microsoft was previously dismissive of AI and only changed its stance after receiving this email. However, the article does not provide any evidence to suggest that Microsoft had been consistently dismissive of AI before this point or that Scott's email was the sole reason for their investment in OpenAI.
        • Microsoft had tried to keep this internal email hidden, but late Tuesday it was made public as part of the US Justice Department’s antitrust trial over Google’s alleged search monopoly.
        • It turned out, Scott suggested, that instead of goofing around, Google had been building critical AI infrastructure that was already paying off.
      • Fallacies (95%)
        The author makes several assertions based on an internal email from Microsoft's CTO. While the email does suggest that Microsoft was behind in AI development compared to Google, it does not contain any logical fallacies. The author also quotes the judge's ruling on the unsealing of the email and Nadella's testimony during the trial, which do not contain any fallacies either. However, there is an instance of inflammatory rhetoric when the author describes Google's alleged search monopoly as a 'biggest no-fly zone.'
        • It's somewhat obvious what Google will argue. Google has spent years defending its search business as competing on the merits—essentially arguing that Google dominates search simply because it's the best search engine.
        • Google has gone to great lengths to block rivals from default placements and hide evidence of its alleged monopoly—including training employees to avoid using words that monopolists use.
      • Bias (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication

      100%

      • Unique Points
        • Microsoft invested heavily in OpenAI due to concerns about falling behind Google in AI model training capability.
        • Microsoft CTO, Kevin Scott, was worried about the gap between Alphabet Inc.’s and Microsoft’s AI model training capabilities.
        • Microsoft lacked the infrastructure and development speed to catch up to OpenAI and Google’s DeepMind.
      • Accuracy
        No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
      • Deception (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Fallacies (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Bias (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication