Mixed Signals in US Consumer Confidence: Optimism Amid Economic Uncertainty and Inflation Concerns in July 2024

Washington D.C., District of Columbia United States of America
Consumer confidence indices, such as Gallup's Economic Confidence Index and The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, reported varying results.
Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity.
Consumers planned to spend less on discretionary services due to economic uncertainty.
Despite a slight increase in overall consumer confidence, Americans expressed less positivity regarding current labor and business conditions.
Inflation remains a major concern for many Americans with elevated prices for food and groceries being a significant driver of this concern.
Lower-income consumers are more vulnerable to economic fluctuations and price increases, contributing to overall economic uncertainty.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% in June, but employers added another 206,000 jobs last month.
US consumer confidence showed mixed signs in July 2024 with some optimism and economic uncertainty.
Mixed Signals in US Consumer Confidence: Optimism Amid Economic Uncertainty and Inflation Concerns in July 2024

In July 2024, US consumer confidence showed mixed signs of improvement, with some consumers expressing optimism about the future while others remained concerned about current economic conditions. According to various reports and surveys, including Gallup's Economic Confidence Index and The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, there were several key findings.

Firstly, despite a slight increase in overall consumer confidence, Americans expressed less positivity regarding current labor and business conditions. This could potentially be attributed to smaller monthly job additions or lingering concerns about inflation and interest rates. Additionally, consumers planned to spend less on discretionary services over the next six months due to economic uncertainty.

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index registered -35 in July, which was stable compared with the past two months. During President Joe Biden's term, confidence has slumped to as low as -58 in June 2022 amid soaring inflation. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose modestly to 100.3 from a revised 97.8 in June.

Lower-income consumers spend a significant portion of their income on basic needs, making them more vulnerable to economic fluctuations and price increases. Roughly two-thirds of consumers live paycheck to paycheck, and nearly one in four have issues paying monthly bills. These factors contribute to the overall economic uncertainty that is impacting consumer confidence.

Inflation remains a major concern for many Americans, with elevated prices for food and groceries being a significant driver of this concern. Though inflation has come down considerably since the Federal Reserve started boosting interest rates in March 2022, price increases remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% in June, which is the highest rate since November 2021. Despite this increase, employers added another 206,000 jobs last month. The number of consumers predicting a recession inched up this month but is still well below its 2023 peak.

Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity and is closely watched by economists for signs of how the American consumer is feeling.

In conclusion, while there were some positive signs in July regarding US consumer confidence, overall sentiment remained mixed due to concerns about inflation, interest rates, and labor market conditions.


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Confidence

85%

Doubts
  • Are there any specific reasons for the decrease in positivity regarding current labor and business conditions?
  • How significant is the increase in consumer spending despite economic uncertainty?

Sources

91%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

American consumers feeling more confident in July as expectations of future improve

The Associated Press News Tuesday, 30 July 2024 14:12
  • Unique Points
    • The number of respondents who planned to purchase a home fell to a 12-year low
    • The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% in June, the highest rate since November 2021
  • Accuracy
    • Consumer confidence index rose to 100.3 in July from a revised 97.8 in June
    • Present situation index declined to 133.6 from 135.3 last month
  • Deception (80%)
    The article contains selective reporting as it focuses on the rebound in consumer expectations while downplaying the weakening of current conditions. The author also makes editorializing statements such as 'even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates.' This statement implies that consumers are not fully positive about the labor market, which is not explicitly stated in the data provided.
    • The Conference Board, a business research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 100.3 in July from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June.
    • The number of respondents who said they planned to purchase a home fell to a 12-year low as elevated interest rates, sky-high home prices and a lack of supply continue to discourage home shoppers.
    • Consumumers’ view of current conditions dipped in July to 133.6, from 135.3 in June.
  • Fallacies (95%)
    The article contains some instances of appeals to authority and dichotomous depictions. However, the overall tone of the article is informative and objective. The author does not make any fallacious arguments or statements. Instead, they report on data from The Conference Board's consumer confidence index and provide context for why consumers may be feeling more confident in some areas but less so in others.
    • ]The number of respondents who said they planned to purchase a home fell to a 12-year low[
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

84%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

US Consumer Confidence Still Mixed in July

PR Newswire The Conference Tuesday, 30 July 2024 17:22
  • Unique Points
    • Consumers were less positive about current labor and business conditions, potentially due to smaller monthly job additions
    • Consumers planned to spend less on discretionary services over the next six months
  • Accuracy
    • Consumer confidence index rose to 100.3 in July from a revised 97.8 in June
    • The measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for income, business and the job market rose to 78.2 from 72.8 in June
    • Present situation index dipped to 133.6 from 135.3 in June
  • Deception (60%)
    The article provides a balanced view of the economic situation, quoting specific numbers and figures for consumer confidence indices. It does not make any editorializing or opinionated statements. However, it does not disclose its sources for the data it presents on inflation expectations and interest rates. This would have made the analysis more complete and trustworthy.
    • Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years.
  • Fallacies (85%)
    The author makes several appeals to authority when quoting Dana M. Peterson, the Chief Economist at The Conference Board. This is a fallacy as it does not provide any logical reasoning or evidence for the assertions made in the article.
    • > The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index<AE rose in July to 100.3 (1985=100), from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June.
    • Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, stated that 'Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years.'
    • Peterson added: 'The proportion of consumers predicting a forthcoming recession ticked up in July but remains well below the 2023 peak.'
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

95%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Low U.S. Economic Confidence Steady

Gallup News Gallup, Inc. Monday, 29 July 2024 00:00
  • Unique Points
    • Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index registers -35 in July, stable compared to the past two months.
    • During President Joe Biden’s term, confidence has slumped to as low as -58 in June 2022 amid soaring inflation.
  • Accuracy
    • Consumer confidence index rose to 100.3 in July from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June.
    • The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% in June, the highest rate since November 2021.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

89%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Consumers’ Mixed Economic Sentiments Hurt by Inflation, Lifted by Labor

PYMNTS.com Unknown PYMNTS Tuesday, 30 July 2024 15:43
  • Unique Points
    • Consumers assessment of current labor market showed slight pessimism with fewer respondents believing jobs were plentiful.
    • Lower-income consumers spend 72% of their income each month covering basic needs like food, monthly bills and housing.
    • Roughly two-thirds of consumers live paycheck to paycheck and nearly one in four have issues paying monthly bills.
  • Accuracy
    • Consumer Confidence Index rose modestly to 100.3 in July from a revised 97.8 in June.
    • The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% in June, the highest rate since November 2021.
    • Average inflation expectations remained stable at 5.4 percent.
  • Deception (70%)
    The article contains selective reporting as it focuses on two conflicting reports on consumer sentiment without providing a clear explanation of the differences between them. The author does not disclose the sources of these reports or provide any context about their reliability or credibility.
    • , Conversely, data from the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment show a decline.
    • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose modestly in July, signaling mixed sentiments among U.S. consumers.
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

95%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

US consumers more confident about the future

Greater Baton Rouge Business Report The Associated Tuesday, 30 July 2024 15:05
  • Unique Points
    • Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of US economic activity, is closely monitored by economists.
  • Accuracy
    • Consumer confidence in the US increased to 100.3 in July from 97.8 in June.
    • The Conference Board reported a rebound in Americans’ expectations for the near-term future.
    • Current conditions assessment by consumers decreased to 133.6 from 135.3.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (95%)
    The author makes an incorrect assumption about the relationship between the consumer confidence index and potential recession by stating that a reading under 80 can signal a potential recession in the near future. This is not necessarily true as other factors also contribute to a recession.
    • A reading under 80 can signal a potential recession in the near future.
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication