NAHB Housing Market Index Flat in April Amid Mortgage Rate Uncertainty and Middle East Tensions

Tehran, Iran Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Homebuilder stocks declined following the release of the HMI
Iran exports approximately 1.5 million barrels of crude per day, produces around 3.25 million barrels per day
NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz remains optimistic about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and moderation of mortgage rates in second half of 2024
NAHB Housing Market Index remained unchanged at 51 in April
Rising mortgage rates and uncertainty regarding future interest rate trends causing hesitancy among buyers
Strait of Hormuz, a major oil chokepoint, at risk of disruption due to conflict
Tensions in Middle East leading to increased uncertainty for oil markets and global equities
NAHB Housing Market Index Flat in April Amid Mortgage Rate Uncertainty and Middle East Tensions

Homebuilder stocks took a hit on Monday following the release of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for April, which remained unchanged from March at 51. The flat reading comes amid rising mortgage rates and hesitancy among buyers regarding future interest rate trends.

The NAHB's chief economist, Robert Dietz, commented that demand growth is present but potential buyers are holding back due to uncertainty surrounding interest rates. Homebuilder stocks such as Lennar (LEN), Pulte (PHM), and Toll Brothers (TOL) all saw declines of over 1%, while the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) dropped by 0.3%.

Despite the flat reading in the HMI, Dietz remains optimistic about future rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a potential moderation of mortgage rates in the second half of 2024.

Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have led to increased uncertainty for oil markets. Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend has put pressure on global equities and oil prices, with Brent crude trading down 0.9% and West Texas Intermediate down 0.8%. The Strait of Hormuz, a major oil chokepoint, is at risk of disruption due to the conflict.

Iran exports approximately 1.5 million barrels of crude per day and produces around 3.25 million barrels per day.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has warned that the world may be entering a treacherous geopolitical era since World War II. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under intense international pressure not to retaliate after the attack. The United States and other nations are urging restraint.

Investors are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, as any escalation could lead to significant volatility in oil markets and global equities.


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Confidence

90%

Doubts
  • Are there any indications that the Federal Reserve will definitely make rate cuts in the second half of 2024?
  • Is there any specific information on the cause of the Iranian attack on Israel?

Sources

100%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Stock market today: Stocks erase earlier gains as bond yields climb

Yahoo Finance Karen Friar Monday, 15 April 2024 18:58
  • Unique Points
    • The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) stayed at 51 in April, unchanged from March.
    • Homebuilder stocks fell on Monday due to high mortgage rates and a flat reading in the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).
    • Builders pulled back slightly on cutting home prices, with 22% of builders reporting doing so in April, down from a reading of 24% in March and 36% in December last year.
    • The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.88%, higher than the previous week’s rate of 6.82%.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

100%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

How the Israel-Iran conflict could send oil prices higher

CNN News Site: In-Depth Reporting and Analysis with Some Financial Conflicts and Sensational Language Anna Cooban Monday, 15 April 2024 14:16
  • Unique Points
    • Iran attacked Israel over the weekend, leading to increased tensions in the Middle East
    • Iran has been accused of engaging in proxy wars by backing groups that attack Israel’s shores
    • The Strait of Hormuz, a major oil chokepoint, is at risk of disruption due to the conflict
    • Iran exports up to 1.5 million barrels of crude per day and produces 3.25 million barrels per day
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

85%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

What next for oil prices after Iran’s attack on Israel?

theguardian.com Article URL: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/13/ pakistan-·coalition-·agrees-to-form-government Jasper Jolly Monday, 15 April 2024 15:12
  • Unique Points
    • Iran launched over 300 drones and missiles towards Israel
    • Iran is a founding member of Opec and produces about 3.2m barrels of oil a day
    • Israel’s war cabinet met to discuss response to Iran’s attack
    • Brent crude oil price was $92.18 a barrel before the attack
  • Accuracy
    • Israel's war cabinet is debating military and diplomatic responses to the attack
    • Oil prices spiked in anticipation of conflict escalation but were subdued on Monday
  • Deception (30%)
    The author makes editorializing statements and uses selective reporting in this article. He states 'However, the effect on markets has been more muted than the headlines might suggest.' and 'Brent crude prices had risen to a six-month high of $92.18 a barrel on Friday after Israel’s allies warned that an Iranian attack was imminent in retaliation for an Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria.' These statements imply the author's opinion and are not factual. He also selectively reports information by only mentioning the potential decrease in oil prices if there is no escalation, while omitting any mention of potential price increases if there is an escalation. The author also states 'There is little sign of the tensions in the Middle East lessening, but if they were to do so then that price premium could slowly fade, lowering prices further.' This statement implies a prediction and editorializing on future events.
    • There is little sign of the tensions in the Middle East lessening, but if they were to do so then that price premium could slowly fade, lowering prices further.
    • Brent crude prices had risen to a six-month high of $92.18 a barrel on Friday after Israel’s allies warned that an Iranian attack was imminent in retaliation for an Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria.
    • The effect on markets has been more muted than the headlines might suggest.
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

97%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Dow falls 200 points as yields jump, traders await Israel response to Iran: Live updates

CNBC News Alex Harring, Sunday, 14 April 2024 21:31
  • Unique Points
    • U.K. investment bank Liberum Capital predicts oil price to reach $100 and a stock market correction of up to 10% due to potential conflict in the Middle East
    • Iran attacked Israel over the weekend, leading to increased tensions in the Middle East
  • Accuracy
    • S&P 500 falls more than 1% with all sectors down, real estate being the worst-performing at -1.8%
    • Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) reaches its lowest level since 2018, down almost 2.5% in the session with Polestar leading the losses
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (95%)
    The article contains an appeal to authority fallacy when it quotes Liberum Capital's prediction of a $100 oil price and a 10% stock market correction. This is not a logical conclusion based on the information provided and should be taken with a grain of salt.
    • British investment bank sees $100 oil and 10% stock market correction
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

94%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Markets Brace for Israel’s Next Move

The Name Of The NZ Prefix. I PWA NZI.P.Was Dropped. Andrew Ross Monday, 15 April 2024 12:08
  • Unique Points
    • Jamie Dimon warned of entering a treacherous geopolitical era since World War II.
    • Benjamin Netanyahu is under intense international pressure not to retaliate after the attack.
  • Accuracy
    • Iran attacked Israel over the weekend, leading to increased tensions in the Middle East
    • More than 300 projectiles were launched towards Israel, with 99% being intercepted
    • Oil prices spiked in anticipation of conflict escalation but were subdued on Monday
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication