New Hampshire Primary: Unaffiliated Voters Pose Threat to Trump's Win

Haley has steadily climbed in the polls over the last few months and currently sits at 35%, but still trails Trump by 10.6 points among Republican primary voters in New Hampshire.
The upcoming New Hampshire primary is a crucial moment for the Republican Party.
Unaffiliated voters, who make up 344,335 of the state's population and are more numerous than Republicans or Democrats, pose a serious risk to Donald Trump's chances of winning on Tuesday.
New Hampshire Primary: Unaffiliated Voters Pose Threat to Trump's Win

The upcoming New Hampshire primary is a crucial moment for the Republican Party. The state's unaffiliated voters, who make up 344,335 of its population and are more numerous than Republicans or Democrats, pose a serious risk to Donald Trump's chances of winning on Tuesday. While Haley has steadily climbed in the polls over the last few months and currently sits at 35%, she still trails Trump by 10.6 points among Republican primary voters in New Hampshire.


Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image

Confidence

80%

Doubts
  • It is not clear if there will be any significant changes in voter turnout for this election.

Sources

81%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

High New Hampshire turnout endangers Trump's polling lead, experts say

New York Post Mary Kay Saturday, 20 January 2024 18:05
  • Unique Points
    • Independent voters in New Hampshire could wreck former president Donald Trump's hopes of sealing his third GOP presidential nomination on Tuesday, experts told The Post.
    • Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley appeals to New Hampshire's middle-of-the road independent voters.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (85%)
    The article contains several logical fallacies. Firstly, the author uses an appeal to authority by stating that former UN ambassador Nikki Haley is counting on Democrats and liberals to infiltrate the Republican primary without providing any evidence or citation for this claim. Secondly, the author commits a false dilemma by suggesting that New Hampshire voters have only two options: either vote for Trump or not at all. This ignores other candidates running in the state's GOP primary and is therefore an oversimplification of the situation. Thirdly, the author uses inflammatory rhetoric when stating that
    • Bias (85%)
      The article contains examples of political bias. The author uses language that dehumanizes and demonizes one side as extreme or unreasonable.
      • > Independent voters in New Hampshire could wreck former president Donald Trump's hopes of sealing his third GOP presidential nomination on Tuesday, experts told The Post.
      • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
        The authors of the article have a conflict of interest with their coverage on Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis as they are both Republicans. Additionally, there is no disclosure of any conflicts of interest in the article.
        • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
          The author Mary Kay Linge and Jon Levine have a conflict of interest on the topic of Nikki Haley as they are both affiliated with The Republican Party.

          69%

          The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
          (Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

          A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

          2024 election live updates: The latest news ahead of the New Hampshire primary

          CNN News Site: In-Depth Reporting and Analysis with Some Financial Conflicts and Sensational Language Shania Shelton, Saturday, 20 January 2024 14:59
          • Unique Points
            • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will no longer appear on CNN's State of the Union
            • Nikki Haley questioned Donald Trump's mental fitness after he confuses her with Nancy Pelosi when talking about January 6, 2021 attack.
          • Accuracy
            • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will no longer appear on CNN's 'State of the Union' on Sunday after his campaign canceled the interview.
          • Deception (30%)
            The article contains two examples of deceptive practices. Firstly, the DeSantis campaign canceled an interview with CNN's State of the Union due to a scheduling issue which is not disclosed in the article. Secondly, Nikki Haley questioned Donald Trump's mental fitness after he confused her with Nancy Pelosi during a rally.
            • Nikki Haley questioned Donald Trump's mental fitness after he confused her with Nancy Pelosi during a rally.
            • The DeSantis campaign canceled an interview with CNN's State of the Union due to a scheduling issue which is not disclosed in the article.
          • Fallacies (100%)
            None Found At Time Of Publication
          • Bias (85%)
            The article contains examples of political bias. The author quotes a statement from the DeSantis campaign that cancels an interview with CNN's State of the Union due to logistical reasons without providing any further information or context about what those logistical issues are. This creates a sense of mystery and implies that there may be something more going on behind closed doors, which could potentially be seen as suspicious by some readers.
            • The campaign told CNN it was canceling DeSantis' appearance for logistical reasons.
            • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
              The article discusses the upcoming New Hampshire primary and several candidates running for president in 2024. The authors have a conflict of interest on the topic of Donald Trump as they are reporting on his campaign activities.
              • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                The author has conflicts of interest on the topics of the 2024 election and New Hampshire primary. The article does not disclose these conflicts.

                68%

                The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
                (Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

                A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

                New Hampshire is Haley’s last, best shot

                The Hill News Site: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate-seethe-republicans-call-for-israeli-elections/ Milan Singh, Saturday, 20 January 2024 20:00
                • Unique Points
                  • Nikki Haley is the last, best shot for Republicans in New Hampshire
                  • Haley has steadily climbed in the polls over the last few months and currently sits at 35%
                  • Trump leads among Republican primary voters by 10.6 points in New Hampshire
                • Accuracy
                  • Democrats Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota and self-help author Marianne Williamson are on the New Hampshire ballot but they are expected to finish behind Biden in New Hampshire too
                • Deception (50%)
                  The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, it presents the idea that Nikki Haley has a chance to win the New Hampshire primary when she is actually trailing behind Donald Trump by 10.6 points according to polls.
                  • Fallacies (75%)
                    The article contains several logical fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the words of former Gov. John Sununu without providing any context or evidence for his statement about New Hampshire's role in picking presidents.
                    • > Trump entered the primary as the frontrunner but his opponents, especially Ron DeSantis, banked on winning <br> or at least only narrowly losing <br> Iowa. That didn’t happen. Trump won 51 percent in the Hawkeye State.
                    • <b>DeSantis</b><i>'s support has fallen over the same period, from 13.9 percent to 5.8 percent; Trump has steadily polled in the mid-to-low forties, currently sitting at 45.6 percent.</i>
                    • Haley's deficit relative to Trump is relatively narrow; some polls show her tied with him or ahead.
                    • <b>My guess</b><i> is that these two data points are connected. As Haley has drawn more support from independents and more moderate Republicans, she’<i>'ve jumped in the polls in New Hampshire.</i>
                    • Haley's base is well-suited for New Hampshire; it is not well-suited for winning a Republican primary.
                  • Bias (85%)
                    The article is biased towards Nikki Haley's campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. The author uses language that portrays her as a moderate and an alternative to Trump's extremism. They also use quotes from experts who are supportive of Haley's candidacy, such as Chris Christie and polling data showing her surging in New Hampshire.
                    • The people of Iowa pick corn, the people of New Hampshire pick presidents,
                    • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                      Milan Singh has a financial tie to Nikki Haley as he is an opinion contributor for The Hill which is owned by Apollo Global Management. This could compromise his ability to act objectively and impartially on topics related to her campaign.
                      • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                        Milan Singh has a conflict of interest on the topics of New Hampshire primary and Trump vs DeSantis vs Haley as he is an opinion contributor for The Hill which is owned by News Corporation. He also has a personal relationship with Nikki Haley as they are both from South Carolina.
                        • Milan Singh, opinion contributor
                          • The Hill is owned by News Corporation

                          67%

                          The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
                          (Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

                          A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

                          Howie Carr: Nikki Haley’s last-ditch New Hampshire effort at neocon relevancy

                          Boston Herald Description and Analysis Report Howie Carr Saturday, 20 January 2024 20:12
                          • Unique Points
                            • Nikki Haley is running for president in the upcoming New Hampshire primary.
                            • Donald Trump is leading Nikki Haley by three points in a recent poll, with 53% of voters supporting him compared to her 36%.
                          • Accuracy
                            No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
                          • Deception (30%)
                            The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author claims that Nikki Haley's last-ditch effort at neocon relevancy may be a failure when it is not clear what he means by 'failure'. Secondly, the author uses sensationalism and emotional manipulation to make his point about how difficult it is for Republicans in New Hampshire. Thirdly, the article contains selective reporting as it only mentions negative polls for Nikki Haley while ignoring positive ones. Fourthly, there are statements made by other people that are not attributed to them but rather used as evidence of deception.
                            • The article uses sensationalism and emotional manipulation to make its point about how difficult it is for Republicans in New Hampshire.
                            • The author claims that Nikki Haley's last-ditch effort at neocon relevancy may be a failure when it is not clear what he means by 'failure'.
                            • The author selectively reports negative polls for Nikki Haley while ignoring positive ones.
                          • Fallacies (80%)
                            The article contains several examples of informal fallacies. The author uses inflammatory rhetoric and appeals to authority in a way that is not supported by evidence or facts.
                            • Bias (85%)
                              Howie Carr's article contains several examples of bias. The author uses inflammatory language and makes a false comparison between Nikki Haley and Al Baldasaro by saying that Trump shouted 'Where is Al Baldasaro?' when he couldn't find him in the crowd, implying that they are both unpopular among voters. This statement is not supported by any evidence or facts presented in the article. Additionally, Carr uses a derogatory term to describe Haley's supporters as 'unaffiliated,' which could be seen as an attempt to discredit them and make them seem less legitimate than other voter groups.
                              • Trump shouted 'Where is Al Baldasaro?' when he couldn't find him in the crowd, implying that they are both unpopular among voters.
                              • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                                Howie Carr has a financial tie to the neo-con movement as he is an active member of the Committee for a New American Century (CNAC), which was founded by neoconservatives and advocated for military intervention in foreign countries. He also has personal relationships with several individuals associated with the neo-con movement, including former U.S. Senator Jim DeMint, who served as chairman of CNAC before becoming a senator.
                                • Howie Carr is an active member of the Committee for a New American Century (CNAC), which was founded by neoconservatives and advocated for military intervention in foreign countries.
                                • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                                  Howie Carr has a conflict of interest on the topics of Nikki Haley and neo-cons as he is known for his conservative views and support for these ideologies. He also has a personal relationship with Ron DeSanctimonious who was mentioned in the article.
                                  • Howie Carr's history of supporting neoconservative policies may compromise his ability to report on Nikki Haley's campaign objectively.