Nickel Industry Faces Financial Crisis Due to Increased Supply from Indonesia and Shift in Demand for Electric Vehicles

Darwin, Australia New Zealand
Indonesia has become a crucial ingredient for electric vehicle batteries due to its high energy density and long cycle life.
Nickel prices have crashed over 40% from last year, with more than 60% of the global industry losing money at current prices.
The nickel industry is facing a financial crisis due to increased supply from Indonesia and shifting demand for electric vehicles.
Nickel Industry Faces Financial Crisis Due to Increased Supply from Indonesia and Shift in Demand for Electric Vehicles

The nickel industry has been hit hard by a flood of new supplies from Indonesia, which is the result of huge Chinese investment and major technological breakthroughs. Mines across the world are at risk of closing or going bankrupt as prices for nickel have crashed over 40% from last year and more than 60% of the global industry is losing money at current prices. The once-boring metal, traditionally used to make steel stainless, has become a crucial ingredient for electric vehicle batteries due to its high energy density and long cycle life. This shift in demand has led to an increase in nickel production from Indonesia as well as other countries such as New Caledonia and Australia. However, this surge in supply is causing problems for the industry, with many mines struggling to stay afloat or shutting down altogether.



Confidence

80%

Doubts
  • It's unclear how long the current price drop will last.
  • There may be other factors contributing to the financial crisis of the nickel industry.

Sources

90%

  • Unique Points
    • The nickel market has been thrown into chaos after a flood of new supplies from Indonesia
    • Mines across the world are at risk of closing, others are asking for state bailouts or going bust
    • Prices for nickel have crashed over 40% from a year ago and more than 60% of the global industry is losing money at current prices
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (85%)
    The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the opinions of experts and analysts without providing any evidence or context for their claims. Additionally, the author commits a false dilemma by presenting only two options: either nickel prices will recover or there will be more mine closures and bailouts. This oversimplifies a complex issue and ignores other potential outcomes. The article also contains an example of inflammatory rhetoric when it describes the situation as
    • The flood of new supplies from Indonesia
    • the result of huge Chinese investment and major technological breakthroughs.
    • <br>As a result, prices for the metal have crashed over 40% from a year ago,
  • Bias (85%)
    The article is biased towards the negative impact of Chinese investment and technological advancements on the nickel industry. The author uses language that dehumanizes China by implying they are responsible for a flood of new supplies in the market which has led to a surplus. Additionally, there is an emphasis on how this has negatively affected BHP's flagship Nickel West mine and other mines across the world, with no mention of any positive impact from these advancements.
    • A huge Indonesian expansion of low-grade production led to a surplus
      • As a result, prices for the metal have crashed over 40% from a year ago
        • The nickel market has been thrown into chaos after a flood of new supplies from Indonesia
        • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication

        68%

        • Unique Points
          • BHP Group struck a deal with Tesla Inc. to supply it with nickel for electric vehicles.
          • <br>the world's biggest mining company was in a nickel frenzy.<br>
          • <br>For BHP, nickel offered a bright spot as its management had earmarked it as key pillar of growth and future-facing commodity that would help offset its exit from fossil fuels and tap into new demand driven by the world's race to decarbonize.
        • Accuracy
          • For BHP, nickel offered a bright spot as its management had earmarked it as key pillar of growth and future-facing commodity that would help offset its exit from fossil fuels and tap into new demand driven by the world's race to decarbonize.
        • Deception (50%)
          The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author presents a false narrative that BHP was successful in striking a deal with Tesla to supply nickel for electric vehicles when no such agreement exists. Secondly, the author implies that Nickel will be used as an alternative fuel source which contradicts scientific evidence and research on its use as a battery material.
          • The article claims 'Nickel will be used as an alternative fuel source' which contradicts scientific evidence and research on its use as a battery material.
          • The article states 'BHP had struck a deal with Tesla to supply it with nickel' but no such agreement exists.
        • Fallacies (85%)
          The article contains an appeal to authority fallacy by stating that BHP Group is the world's biggest mining company without providing any evidence or context. Additionally, there are informal fallacies such as hype and frenzy used to describe the deal with Tesla Inc.
          • > The world’s biggest mining company was in a nickel frenzy.
        • Bias (75%)
          The author has a clear bias towards the negative impact of nickel on the environment and its role in climate change. The author uses language such as 'nickel frenzy' to describe BHP Group's deal with Tesla Inc., implying that it was reckless or irresponsible. Additionally, the use of phrases like 'prospective mines', which implies a positive outlook on nickel mining, is inconsistent with the rest of the article.
          • nickel frenzy
            • prospective mines
            • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
              Thomas Biesheuvel has a conflict of interest with the nickel industry as he is reporting on it. He also has a financial tie to Tesla Inc., which could influence his coverage of electric vehicles.
              • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                Thomas Biesheuvel has conflicts of interest on the topics of nickel industry and Andrew Forrest. He is a reporter for Bloomberg News which covers the financial sector including companies like Tesla Inc.

                74%

                • Unique Points
                  • The nickel market has been thrown into chaos after a flood of new supplies from Indonesia
                  • Mines across the world are at risk of closing, others are asking for state bailouts or going bust
                  • Prices for nickel have crashed over 40% from a year ago and more than 60% of the global industry is losing money at current prices
                • Accuracy
                  No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
                • Deception (100%)
                  None Found At Time Of Publication
                • Fallacies (0%)
                  The article contains an appeal to authority fallacy. The author cites a report from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) as evidence for their claims about Indonesia's nickel industry without providing any context or critical analysis of the report.
                  • >Subscribe to unlock this article <br>Try unlimited access Only $1 for 4 weeks <br>Then $75 per month. Complete digital access to quality FT journalism on any device. Cancel anytime during your trial.<br><br>Explore more offers.<br><br>Standard Digital< br/>Essential digital access to quality FT journalism on any device. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.
                  • The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) has warned that Indonesia's nickel industry is facing an existential threat due to the country's strict environmental regulations.
                • Bias (100%)
                  None Found At Time Of Publication
                • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                  None Found At Time Of Publication
                • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
                  None Found At Time Of Publication

                59%

                • Unique Points
                  • The nickel downstreaming policy has improved the well-being of some local communities
                  • `Hendra', a factory worker in a nickel processing company, earns more than minimum wage workers in Jakarta and is able to support his family and younger siblings
                  • The poverty rate in Morowali, home to the largest nickel processing hub, was 16.18 percent in 2016 and had fallen to 12.58 percent by 2022 according to the Central Sulawesi Statistics Agency
                  • In Morowalia, the average income of the working age population was less than Rp 300,000 (US$19) per month in 2017 and had jumped to almost Rp 4 million by 2022 according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS)
                • Accuracy
                  • The nickel market has been thrown into chaos after a flood of new supplies from Indonesia
                  • Mines across the world are at risk of closing, others are asking for state bailouts or going bust
                  • Prices for nickel have crashed over 40% from a year ago and more than 60% of the global industry is losing money at current prices
                • Deception (30%)
                  The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author uses anecdotes to present a positive view of downstreaming without providing any evidence or data to support their claims. Secondly, the author misrepresents statistics by focusing on short-term fluctuations rather than long-term trends. Lastly, the article contains sensationalist language and emotional manipulation.
                  • Moreover, nickel downstreaming is foolhardy because electric vehicle battery technology is rapidly shifting into lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries that don't use nickel at all.
                  • The stories of Fatiamah and Hendra are nothing but irrelevant noise to the detractors of downstreaming
                • Fallacies (85%)
                  The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing statistics without providing any context or explanation for how they were obtained. They also use inflammatory rhetoric when stating that downstreaming does nothing to promote the prosperity of local communities and only engenders environmental degradation, which is a false dilemma. Additionally, the author uses an informal fallacy by using personal anecdotes as evidence for their argument without providing any data or statistics to support it.
                  • The poverty rate might fluctuate if you focus only on one brief period, but if you look at the long term, the decline in poverty is unmistakable.
                • Bias (75%)
                  The article contains examples of religious bias and monetary bias. The author uses the phrase 'nickel downstreaming policy' which implies that it is a bad thing, despite evidence to the contrary. They also use quotes from people who have benefited from nickel processing without acknowledging their positive experiences.
                  • In 2016, the poverty rate in Morowali was 16.18 percent, whereas in 2022 the rate had fallen to 12.58 percent
                    • Moreover, nickel downstreaming is foolhardy because electric vehicle battery technology is rapidly shifting into lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries that don’t use nickel at all.
                      • The average income of the working age population in Morowala was less than Rp 300,000 (US$19) per month by 2017 and jumped to almost Rp4 million by 2022
                        • The criticisms against the government's nickel downstreaming policy may have a grain of truth in them, but they should also be taken with a grain of salt.
                        • Site Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
                          The Jakarta Post has a conflict of interest on the topic of nickel downstreaming policy as they are owned by PT Freeport Indonesia which is involved in the mining and processing of nickel. The article also mentions Fatiamah and Hendra who have interests in the industry.
                          • PT Freeport Indonesia, one of Indonesia's largest foreign investors, has been criticized for its environmental impact on local communities.
                            • The Jakarta Post has a conflict of interest on the topic of nickel downstreaming policy as they are owned by PT Freeport Indonesia which is involved in the mining and processing of nickel. The article also mentions Fatiamah and Hendra who have interests in the industry.
                            • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                              The Jakarta Post has a conflict of interest on the topic of nickel downstreaming policy as they are reporting on government's nickel downstreaming policy. They also have a potential conflict of interest on the topic of poverty rate in Morowali and labor force survey as these topics may be related to their coverage area.
                              • The article discusses the poverty rate in Morowala, which could be related to The Jakarta Post's coverage area.
                                • The article mentions that the government has implemented a nickel downstreaming policy, which is relevant to The Jakarta Post's reporting.