Between 17 and 25 named storms expected, with eight to thirteen becoming hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes
Factors contributing to active season include near-record warm ocean temperatures, development of La Nina conditions, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear
NOAA implementing new tools for improved analysis and forecasting such as Directional Wave Spectra Drifters, Saildrones, underwater gliders and Streamsones
NOAA predicts above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2024 with 85% probability
Seven of the last ten Atlantic hurricane seasons have been more active than the long-term normal
NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has predicted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2024. The probability of this occurring is 85%, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. This means that between 17 and 25 named storms are expected, with eight to thirteen becoming hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes. These predictions are based on several factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Basin, the development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear. NOAA will also be implementing new tools such as Directional Wave Spectra Drifters, Saildrones, underwater gliders and Streamsonde to improve hurricane analysis and forecasting. The agency will also expand Spanish language text products for Public Advisories, Tropical Cyclone Discussion, Tropical Cyclone Update and Key Messages in the Atlantic basin. An experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings will be issued starting August 15. Two new forecast models, MOM6 and SDCON, will go into operation this season to further enhance hurricane analysis and forecasting capabilities.
The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be active due to the aforementioned factors. Warm ocean temperatures provide fuel for storms and force more air up over the Atlantic, supporting strong thunderstorms. Seven of the last ten Atlantic hurricane seasons have been more active than the long-term normal, and climate change is making storms rain more and intensify more rapidly.
NOAA predicts above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin during the 2024 season
The probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is 85% according to NOAA
17 to 25 named storms are expected, with 8 to 13 becoming hurricanes and 4 to 7 major hurricanes
Factors contributing to above-normal activity include near-record warm ocean temperatures, development of La Nina conditions, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear
NOAA will expand Spanish language text products for Public Advisories, Tropical Cyclone Discussion, Tropical Cyclone Update and Key Messages in the Atlantic basin
An experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings will be issued starting August 15
Two new forecast models, MOM6 and SDCON, will go into operation this season to improve hurricane analysis and forecasting
NOAA’s new generation of Flood Inundation Mapping will provide information to emergency and water managers for potential flooding
NOAA will upgrade observing systems critical in understanding and forecasting hurricanes with new tools such as Directional Wave Spectra Drifters, Saildrones, underwater gliders and Streamsonde
NOAA forecasts 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes for the Atlantic in 2024.
Water temperatures in the Atlantic Basin are warmer than usual, particularly in the Main Development Region.
An active North Africa monsoon season is being forecast, which could lead to more tropical waves.
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Fallacies
(95%)
The article contains repetition of the same statement by the author about an active hurricane season being forecasted for the Atlantic. This is a form of redundancy and can be considered a form of informal fallacy. The author also uses inflammatory language when describing the potential for severe weather, which can be seen in phrases like 'potential for severe weather' and 'slight risk of severe weather'. This is an appeal to emotion and can be considered an informal fallacy.
A very active season is being forecast for the Atlantic
Be sure to stay with WDSU First Warning Weather all season long for all your weather information. But most important, the tropics.
Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are record warm for the past 13 months and a La Nina is forecast to arrive by mid to late summer.
Record hot water seems to be key for hurricane development as it provides fuel for the storms and forces more air up over the Atlantic, supporting strong thunderstorms.
Seven of the last 10 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been more active than the long-term normal.
Climate change generally is making storms rain more and making them rapidly intensify more.
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Fallacies
(90%)
The article contains several instances of appeals to authority and inflammatory rhetoric. However, no formal logical fallacies were identified. The author quotes multiple experts in the field to support his claims about the upcoming hurricane season being active due to ocean heat and a potential La Nina. This is not a fallacy as it is a valid use of expert opinion when reporting on scientific matters.
][National Weather Service Director Ken Graham][] said “It's a reason to be concerned, of course, but not alarmed.”
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad stated “This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways.”
