NOAA Predicts Record-Breaking Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2024: Implications for US Oil and Gas Industry

Gulf Coast, Louisiana, Texas United States of America
1 million barrels per day of capacity could be taken offline due to a major storm
85% chance of above-average hurricane season with 17-25 named storms expected
ExxonMobil's Baton Rouge refinery and Phillips 66's Alliance refinery in Belle Chase among those at risk
Gulf of Mexico crude oil production accounts for 14% of U.S. crude oil production; natural gas production contributes 2%
NOAA predicts record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season in 2024
Potential for eight to thirteen hurricanes, four to seven major hurricanes
U.S. oil and gas industry at risk, particularly Louisiana refineries and offshore production units
NOAA Predicts Record-Breaking Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2024: Implications for US Oil and Gas Industry

In a significant development, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its most aggressive hurricane season forecast on record for the Atlantic basin in 2024. The prediction comes as a result of near-record warm waters and the emergence of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

According to NOAA, there is an 85% chance of an above-average hurricane season, with between 17 and 25 named storms expected. This surpasses the typical average of around 14 named storms per year. Of these potential storms, eight to thirteen could become hurricanes with winds exceeding 74 mph, and four to seven of those hurricanes may reach major status with winds over 115 mph.

The implications for the U.S. oil and natural gas industry are significant, particularly in Louisiana where refineries along the Gulf Coast account for nearly half of U.S. refining capacity. These facilities risk flooding and power outages during a major storm, leading to evacuation of nonessential personnel and halted production.

ExxonMobil's Baton Rouge refinery and Phillips 66's Alliance refinery in Belle Chase are among those at risk. In anticipation of a major storm, over 1 million barrels per day of capacity could be taken offline. Damage to these facilities may result in extended downtime or even permanent closure.

Offshore crude oil and natural gas production units are also vulnerable to hurricanes and tropical storms. These operations must evacuate nonessential personnel and halt production if necessary, potentially disrupting supply chains for petroleum products.

In 2023, Gulf of Mexico crude oil production accounted for 14% of U.S. crude oil production; natural gas production contributed 2%. Hurricanes can significantly impact these industries by disrupting operations and causing supply chain disruptions.

NOAA's forecast underscores the importance of preparedness and contingency planning in the face of an active hurricane season. The agency advises staying informed about storm developments through credible sources such as NOAA, the National Weather Service, or local emergency management agencies.


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Confidence

100%

No Doubts Found At Time Of Publication

Sources

100%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

NOAA issues highest-ever early forecast for the coming hurricane season

Entertainment Variety Tv Site: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/tv-site/ Evan Bush Thursday, 23 May 2024 20:37
  • Unique Points
    • NOAA has issued the highest-ever early forecast for the coming hurricane season in May.
    • NOAA predicts a third most active hurricane season on record with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
    • Given near-record warmth in much of the Atlantic Ocean and a strong chance of La Niña conditions, there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season along the Atlantic seaboard.
    • Record sea surface temperatures could fuel rapid intensification and make hurricane preparations more challenging.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

98%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

NOAA predicts highly active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season with up to 25 storms

WGME Meteorologist Emily Thursday, 23 May 2024 20:38
  • Unique Points
    • NOAA predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.
    • 'During a La Niña, there are fewer hurricanes in the Pacific due to stronger vertical wind shear and the placement of dry air. More hurricanes occur in the Atlantic Basin due to weaker vertical wind shear, trade winds and less atmospheric stability.'
    • NOAA forecasts between 17 and 25 named storms for the upcoming season.
    • Eight to thirteen storms are expected to become hurricanes, with four to seven becoming major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (90%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

98%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

NOAA issues its most aggressive hurricane season forecast on record

Fox Weather Description & Analysis powered by Fox News Network LLC Andrew Wulfeck, Thursday, 23 May 2024 20:39
  • Unique Points
    • NOAA predicts 17-25 named storms in the Atlantic basin during the 2024 hurricane season.
    • 8-13 of these storms are expected to become hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph.
    • 4 to 7 of these hurricanes could become major with winds of at least 115 mph.
    • NOAA gives an 85% chance of an above-average season, which would be the eighth in the last ten years to exceed the average.
    • The Atlantic Ocean is still record warm, providing more fuel for storms.
    • Both NOAA and Colorado State University predict a ‘hyperactive’ hurricane season with between 150% to 245% of median ACE index.
    • Neutral or even a La Niña climate pattern in place is expected to lead to high counts of cyclones.
    • The odds of a major hurricane making landfall along the US coastline are 62%, while the odds in the Caribbean are highest at 66%.
  • Accuracy
    • Atlantic hurricane season will run from June 1 to November 30, with the peak occurring in late summer and early fall.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (95%)
    The article contains several statements made by experts in the field of meteorology and hurricane forecasting. These statements are not fallacious as they are based on scientific data and analysis. The authors do not make any false or misleading claims, nor do they use inflammatory rhetoric or appeals to authority. However, there is one instance of a dichotomous depiction: 'Another measurement in NOAA’s hurricane forecasting toolkit is Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (ACE), which measures the combined intensity and duration of all named storms. This year’s outlook predicts between 150% to 245% of the median – classifying the prediction as a “hyperactive” season.' The authors are presenting two options, 'average' and 'hyperactive', implying that anything above average is extreme or unusual. While this is not inherently fallacious, it can be misleading as it may create an exaggerated sense of fear or urgency.
    • 'Another measurement in NOAA’s hurricane forecasting toolkit is Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (ACE), which measures the combined intensity and duration of all named storms. This year’s outlook predicts between 150% to 245% of the median – classifying the prediction as a “hyperactive” season.'
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

97%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

What a hyperactive hurricane season means for Louisiana’s oil and natural gas industry

Greater Baton Rouge Business Report Dillon Lowe Thursday, 23 May 2024 19:50
  • Unique Points
    • Gulf Coast refineries risk flooding and power outages during a major storm, leading to evacuation of nonessential personnel and halted production.
    • 3.3 million barrels per day of refining capacity could be taken offline in anticipation of a major storm.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

98%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

NOAA 2024 hurricane forecast for Atlantic calls for historic number of storms

The Boston Globe Thursday, 23 May 2024 00:00
  • Unique Points
    • NOAA has released its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
    • Record-high water temperatures in the Atlantic have been linked to stronger hurricanes in recent years.
  • Accuracy
    • The upcoming season is predicted to have above-average activity with up to 25 storms possible.
    • NOAA predicts a third most active hurricane season on record with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
    • Atlantic hurricane season will run from June 1 to November 30, with the peak occurring in late summer and early fall.
    • NOAA gives an 85% chance of an above-average season.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication