Nobel Economists Debate: Trump's Tax Cuts vs. Biden's Investments - Implications for Inflation

Washington D.C., District of Columbia United States of America
Biden focused on raising taxes on corporations, investing in human capital, research, public education and health care
Nobel economists debate impact of Trump's tax cuts vs. Biden's investments on inflation
Some economists endorsed Biden's Build Back Better agenda but predictions about its impact on inflation have not been accurate
Trump approved $8.4 trillion in new borrowing, implemented tax cuts and eliminated taxes on tipped wages
Nobel Economists Debate: Trump's Tax Cuts vs. Biden's Investments - Implications for Inflation

Former Presidents Trump and Biden have proposed contrasting economic agendas, with significant implications for inflation and the global economy. According to a group of 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists, Trump's tax-cutting proposals could reignite inflation if he is elected in November. The economists also expressed concern about Trump's trade and immigration policies, which they believe could be inflationary.

During his first term, Trump approved $8.4 trillion of new borrowing – nearly twice as much as President Biden has so far. In an effort to stimulate the economy, Trump implemented tax cuts and proposed eliminating taxes on tipped wages for workers in the leisure and hospitality industries.

Biden, on the other hand, has focused on raising taxes on corporations. The economists argue that his economic agenda is superior to Trump's due to its broader focus on investments in human capital, research, public education, and health care.

However, it is important to note that some of these same economists signed a similar letter endorsing Biden's Build Back Better agenda in 2021. Their predictions about the impact of Biden's spending packages on inflation have not been accurate – instead, these policies have contributed to rising inflation and interest rates.

Real GDP surged in 2021 but has since declined and levelled off. Total federal debt has also increased significantly since then, with interest payments on the debt more than doubling. The costs of some of Biden's initiatives, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, have also been revised upward.

It is crucial for voters to consider a wide range of sources and perspectives when evaluating economic policies and their potential impact on inflation.


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Confidence

85%

Doubts
  • Are the economists biased towards one candidate over the other?
  • Have all potential impacts of Trump and Biden's economic policies been considered?

Sources

52%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Axios omits crucial details about economists who say Trump will destroy the economy

Fox News Channel Andrew Miller, Thursday, 27 June 2024 01:37
  • Unique Points
    • A letter signed by 16 top economists warning of the economic dangers of electing former President Trump is being amplified by the Biden campaign and other Biden surrogates.
    • The economists who signed the letter also donated tens of thousands of dollars to other Democrat candidates and signed previous letters supporting Biden’s agenda, including attacking
    • The federal debt continues to grow, with tax cuts and spending in Trump’s first term adding nearly twice as much as Biden’s according to a new nonpartisan analysis.
    • Trump wants to eliminate taxes on tipped wages for workers in the leisure and hospitality industries, while Biden is sticking with his plan to raise taxes on corporations.
  • Accuracy
    • Axios omitted the fact that the economists who signed the letter also donated tens of thousands of dollars to other Democrat candidates and signed previous letters supporting Biden’s agenda.
    • The economists warned that Trump's plans would reignite inflation and cause lasting harm to the global economy if he wins in November.
  • Deception (30%)
    The article by Axios omits crucial details about the economists who signed a letter warning against electing Trump. The authors fail to disclose that some of these economists have donated to Biden or supported him politically in the past. This is an example of selective reporting, as the authors only report details that support their position and omit information that would contradict it.
    • The letter's Nobel Prize-winning signatories show political donations to President Biden's 2020 and 2024 campaigns.
    • Axios did not note the previous political activism of the economists in the story
  • Fallacies (50%)
    The article by Andrew Miller, Cameron Cawthorne, and Aubrie Spady contains several instances of appeals to authority fallacy. The authors use the political affiliations of economists as evidence to discredit their opinions about the economic agendas of Joe Biden and Donald Trump. However, political donations or past support for a candidate do not invalidate their expertise or credibility on economic matters.
    • ]The economists wrote in a letter first reported on by Axios this week that has been promoted by various members of the Biden campaign on X, formerly known as Twitter.[
    • Georgetown University Professor George A. Akerlof donated $25,000 to the Biden Victory Fund and maxed out as a donor in 2020, giving the campaign $5,600.
    • Harvard University economist and historian Claudia Goldin donated $500 to the Biden campaign in 2020 and 2024 and has donated over $8,000 to Democrats in recent years.
    • Paul Milgrom, an economist at Stanford University, also previously signed letters supporting Build Back Better and calling Trump’s 2020 campaign ‘selfish and reckless.’
  • Bias (0%)
    The article by Andrew Miller, Cameron Cawthorne, and Aubrie Spady from Fox News exposes the political bias of Axios in their reporting about economists warning against former President Trump's economic agenda. The authors reveal that several signatories of the letter have donated to President Biden or supported him politically in the past. This information was omitted by Axios, demonstrating a clear political bias towards Biden and against Trump.
    • Axios did not note the previous political activism of the economists in the story
      • Axios did not respond to a request for comment from Fox News Digital
      • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication
      • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
        None Found At Time Of Publication

      81%

      The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
      (Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

      A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

      16 Nobel prize-winning economists see a Trump inflation bomb

      Axios News Site: https://www.axios.com/2024/01-30/prior-authorization-gap-insurer-drug-decisions Hans Nichols Tuesday, 25 June 2024 14:16
      • Unique Points
        • Sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists have warned that Former President Trump's plans would reignite inflation and cause lasting harm to the global economy if he wins in November.
        • The economists believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the US’s economic standing in the world and a destabilizing effect on the US’s domestic economy.
        • Trump wants to eliminate taxes on tipped wages for workers in the leisure and hospitality industries, while Biden is sticking with his plan to raise taxes on corporations.
      • Accuracy
        No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
      • Deception (30%)
        The article contains selective reporting and emotional manipulation. The author quotes the Nobel laureates warning about Trump's plans causing inflation and harm to the global economy, but does not provide any counterargument or mention Biden's economic record or proposals in detail. This creates a biased narrative that only presents one side of the argument. Additionally, phrases like 'Many Americans are concerned about inflation,' and 'Voters don’t give him much credit for the first two but they blame him for the third' are used to manipulate emotions and sway public opinion.
        • The message was spearheaded by Joseph Stiglitz, who won the Nobel prize for economics in 2001.
        • Many Americans are concerned about inflation, which has come down remarkably fast. There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets.
        • Sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists are jumping into the presidential campaign with a stark warning: Former President Trump’s plans would reignite inflation and cause lasting harm to the global economy if he wins in November.
      • Fallacies (80%)
        The author makes an appeal to authority by quoting Nobel prize-winning economists and their opinions. However, this is not a fallacy as long as the author accurately reports their statements without adding any bias or interpretation.
        • Sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists are jumping into the presidential campaign with a stark warning: Former President Trump’s plans would reignite inflation and cause lasting harm to the global economy if he wins in November.
        • We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S.’s economic standing in the world, and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.’s domestic economy.
      • Bias (95%)
        The author, Hans Nichols, expresses a clear political bias by taking the side of the Biden administration and quoting Nobel prize-winning economists who support Biden's economic agenda over Trump's. The article also uses language that depicts Trump's plans as harmful and destabilizing to the economy.
        • Many Americans are concerned about inflation, which has come down remarkably fast. There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets.
          • Sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists are jumping into the presidential campaign with a stark warning: Former President Trump’s plans would reignite inflation and cause lasting harm to the global economy if he wins in November.
            • We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S.’s economic standing in the world, and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.’s domestic economy.
            • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
              None Found At Time Of Publication
            • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
              None Found At Time Of Publication

            39%

            The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
            (Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

            A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

            The Nobel Laureates Strike Out

            City Journal Thursday, 27 June 2024 01:41
            • Unique Points
              • Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a public letter endorsing President Biden's economic policies and criticizing Donald Trump's.
              • The economists support Biden's reelection campaign and warn that Trump's tax-cutting proposals will reignite inflation and destabilize the nation’s economic standing.
              • In 2021, 15 of these same economists signed a similar public letter endorsing Biden’s Build Back Better agenda.
              • The prize-winning economists claimed that Biden’s agenda includes ‘a broader conception of infrastructure’ that includes investments in human capital, research, public education, and health care.
              • However, the expert economists were mistaken on inflation. They said that Biden’s spending packages would ease inflationary pressures, but those same policies stoked inflation.
              • Real GDP surged in 2021 to 5.8%, mostly a bounce-back from pandemic era lockdowns, but it has declined and levelled off since then.
              • Contrary to what the Nobel laureates would have us believe, it is more likely that Biden’s policies have caused inflation and rising interest rates that have retarded economic growth.
              • Total federal debt was $28.5 trillion when the economists signed their letter in 2021. Since then, it has surged to $34.5 trillion.
              • Interest payments on the federal debt have gone from around $500 billion in total to about $1 trillion today, a $500 billion increase in expenditures per year.
              • The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions would cost $393 billion in subsidies and tax credits. However, a Goldman Sachs report estimated that the costs have exploded threefold, to $1.3 trillion.
            • Accuracy
              • The federal debt continues to grow, with tax cuts and spending in Trump’s first term adding nearly twice as much as Biden's according to a new nonpartisan analysis.
            • Deception (0%)
              The article is deceptive as it presents the opinions of Nobel Prize-winning economists as facts, without disclosing that they are endorsing Joe Biden's economic agenda and criticizing Donald Trump's. The author does not make it clear that these economists have a political affiliation with the Democratic Party and have previously endorsed similar policies. This is an example of selective reporting, as the article only reports details that support the author's position. Additionally, the article makes claims about Biden's economic policies reducing inflationary pressures and promoting economic growth without providing evidence or citing peer-reviewed studies to back up these assertions.
              • The economists also claimed that Biden’s agenda includes a broader conception of infrastructure that went beyond spending on roads, bridges, and the like to include investments in human capital, research, public education, and health care.
              • Because this agenda invests in long-term economic capacity and will enhance the ability of more Americans to participate productively in the economy, it will ease longer-term inflationary pressures.
              • Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists have signed a public letter in advance of Thursday’s presidential debate endorsing President Biden’s economic policies and criticizing Donald Trump’s.
              • The economists support Biden’s reelection campaign and warn that Trump’s tax-cutting proposals will reignite inflation and destabilize the nation’s economic standing in the world.
              • They write: While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden’s economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump’s.
            • Fallacies (15%)
              The article contains several instances of the Appeal to Authority fallacy. The Nobel Prize-winning economists are presented as experts and their endorsement of Biden's economic policies is taken as evidence that those policies are superior. However, their past predictions about inflation and economic growth being incorrect undermines their credibility as authorities on these matters.
              • While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden’s economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump’s.
              • The economists support Biden’s reelection campaign and warn that Trump’s tax-cutting proposals will reignite inflation and destabilize the nation’s economic standing in the world.
              • Because this agenda invests in long-term economic capacity and will enhance the ability of more Americans to participate productively in the economy, it will ease longer-term inflationary pressures.
              • The economists also claimed that Biden’s agenda includes ‘a broader conception of infrastructure’ that went beyond spending on roads, bridges, and the like to include investments in human capital, research, public education, and health care.
            • Bias (0%)
              The article contains clear examples of political bias as the author expresses a negative opinion towards the economic policies and tax-cutting proposals of Donald Trump, while endorsing those of Joe Biden. The author also uses language that depicts Trump's policies as detrimental to the nation's economic standing in the world.
              • Judging by their track record, when it comes to economic policymaking, these prize-winning economists have no idea what they are talking about.
                • Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists have signed a public letter in advance of Thursday’s presidential debate endorsing President Biden’s economic policies and criticizing Donald Trump’s.
                  • The economists support Biden’s reelection campaign and warn that Trump’s tax-cutting proposals will reignite inflation and destabilize the nation’s economic standing in the world.
                    • They write: While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden’s economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump’s.
                    • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                      None Found At Time Of Publication
                    • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
                      None Found At Time Of Publication

                    81%

                    The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
                    (Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

                    A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

                    Trump would make America’s inflation crisis worse, 16 Nobel economists warn

                    CNN News Site: In-Depth Reporting and Analysis with Some Financial Conflicts and Sensational Language Matt Egan Wednesday, 26 June 2024 10:00
                    • Unique Points
                      • Former President Donald Trump has proposed solutions to address inflation in the economy.
                      • Trump approved $8.4 trillion of new borrowing during his term, nearly twice as much as President Joe Biden has so far.
                      • Trump wants to extend his 2017 tax cuts and potentially cut the corporate tax rate further.
                      • The economists expressed concern about Trump’s trade and immigration policies, which could also be inflationary.
                    • Accuracy
                      • 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists have warned that Trump’s proposals would not only fail to fix inflation but make it worse.
                    • Deception (30%)
                      The article contains selective reporting and editorializing. The author quotes the Nobel economists warning about Trump's economic proposals causing inflation, but does not mention any opposing views or context that could challenge this assertion. The author also expresses his own opinion by stating 'Americans are fed up with the cost of living and former President Donald Trump says he will help.' This is editorializing as it goes beyond reporting the facts and expresses a personal viewpoint.
                      • Yet 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists are warning that Trump’s proposals wouldn’t just fail to fix inflation – they would make matters worse.
                      • Americans know we cannot afford four more years of Bidenomics, and when President Trump is back in the White House, he will reimplement his pro-growth, pro-energy, pro-jobs agenda to bring down the cost of living and uplift all Americans.
                    • Fallacies (85%)
                      The author makes an appeal to authority by citing the opinions of 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists. However, this does not necessarily mean that there are no logical fallacies in the article. The author also uses inflammatory rhetoric by describing Trump's proposals as 'fiscally irresponsible budgets' and 'dangerous.' Additionally, the author makes a dichotomous depiction by implying that only Trump or Biden can be good for the economy, ignoring other possibilities.
                      • The economists wrote in the Tuesday letter, which was first reported by Axios.
                      • Trump approved $8.4 trillion of new 10-year borrowing during his term – nearly twice as much as President Joe Biden has so far in office, according to fiscal watchdog group the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
                      • The economists praised Biden’s work on the economy, arguing his major investments in infrastructure, manufacturing and climate will lower long-term inflationary pressure and ease the clean energy transition.
                    • Bias (100%)
                      None Found At Time Of Publication
                    • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                      None Found At Time Of Publication
                    • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                      None Found At Time Of Publication

                    90%

                    The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
                    (Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

                    A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

                    The economic consequences of Mr Trump

                    Financial Times Thursday, 27 June 2024 01:42
                    • Unique Points
                      • Former President Trump's tax-cutting proposals will reignite inflation and cause lasting harm to the global economy if he wins in November.
                      • Trump wants to eliminate taxes on tipped wages for workers in the leisure and hospitality industries, while Biden is sticking with his plan to raise taxes on corporations.
                      • The federal debt continues to grow, with tax cuts and spending in Trump’s first term adding nearly twice as much as Biden’s according to a new nonpartisan analysis.
                      • Biden has presided over a period of solid growth, a strong labor market, and stubbornly high inflation. Voters don’t give him much credit for the first two but they blame him for the third.
                      • The economists lending their academic prestige to Biden’s argument that his economic agenda is vastly superior to Trump’s.
                    • Accuracy
                      • Sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists have warned that Former President Trump’s plans would reignite inflation and cause lasting harm to the global economy if he wins in November.
                      • The economists believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the US’s economic standing in the world and a destabilizing effect on the US’s domestic economy.
                      • In 2021, 15 of these same economists signed a similar public letter endorsing Biden’s Build Back Better agenda.
                    • Deception (100%)
                      None Found At Time Of Publication
                    • Fallacies (100%)
                      None Found At Time Of Publication
                    • Bias (100%)
                      None Found At Time Of Publication
                    • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                      None Found At Time Of Publication
                    • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
                      None Found At Time Of Publication