Panama is set to elect a new president on May 5, 2024, in an election that experts are calling the most important in decades. The race has been marked by legal challenges and uncertainty following the disqualification of former President Ricardo Martinelli due to a past corruption conviction and sentencing. Among the leading contenders is José Raúl Mulino, a right-wing former public security minister who has pledged to shut down the Darién Gap, a treacherous stretch of jungle that serves as the main highway for migrants making their way to the United States. With one million people living in Panama and corruption being a major concern for voters, this election could have significant implications for international trade, migration, and governance challenges in the region.
The Panamanian economy has been facing fiscal and governance challenges in recent years. According to Fitch Ratings, GDP growth is forecasted to be only 2.5 percent this year compared to 7.3 percent last year due to water access issues, droughts, El Niño, and political chaos in the United States leading up to its presidential vote later this year. Unemployment and unsatisfactory medical care are also major concerns for Panamanians.
Another issue that has come up during the campaign is immigration. Mulino's pledge to shut down the Darién Gap has raised questions about how he plans to address migration while ensuring freedom of movement and respecting human rights. The United States, Colombia, and the Panamanian government have all expressed concerns over this issue.
Despite these challenges, some experts believe that Panama could still be a leader in the region economically. Daniel Zovatto, a global fellow with the Latin America Program at the Wilson Center, noted that 'Panama is an important country in terms of its economy and its role as a bridge between North and South America.'
The election comes at a time when Panama is facing significant political tension and uncertainty. The IMF forecasts GDP growth of only 2.5 percent this year, down from 7.3 percent last year, due to water access issues, droughts, El Niño, and political chaos in the United States leading up to its presidential vote later this year. With more than half a million migrants passing through Panama each year and corruption being a major concern for voters, the next president will have an agenda overloaded with problems.
The election is also significant because of the legal challenges that have arisen during the campaign season. Former President Ricardo Martinelli was disqualified from running due to a conviction and sentence related to a New Business corruption scandal involving a publishing group. He has taken refuge in Nicaragua's embassy in Panama City, seeking asylum from Nicaraguan authorities.
Despite these challenges, experts believe that the election is an important opportunity for Panama to address its governance challenges and move towards a more stable and prosperous future. 'The situation is very complex and the next president, whoever is elected, is going to have an agenda overloaded with problems in a country that is very polarized,' said Zovatto. 'But it's also an opportunity for Panama to address these challenges head-on and work towards a more stable and prosperous future.'
