Powerful Solar Flare Erupts from Sun, Increasing Geomagnetic Disturbances Probability

On February 23, a powerful solar flare erupted from the sun. The X6.3 burst of radiation was more powerful than any other solar flare observed during this current solar cycle and also the largest since 2017.
The active region responsible for these flares is now pointing directly towards Earth and will soon become increasingly magnetically connected with our planet, increasing the likelihood of geomagnetic disturbances. The probability of another strong X-class flare is estimated at 15%, while more moderate C- and M-class flares are expected to occur over the next 24 hours with a probability of 99% and 60%, respectively.
The solar cycle typically follows an 11-year pattern, with increasing numbers of flares and sunspots erupting until it reaches its peak mid-cycle. The current solar cycle is known as Solar Cycle 25.
Powerful Solar Flare Erupts from Sun, Increasing Geomagnetic Disturbances Probability

On February 23, a powerful solar flare erupted from the sun. The X6.3 burst of radiation was more powerful than any other solar flare observed during this current solar cycle and also the largest since 2017.

The active region responsible for these flares is now pointing directly towards Earth and will soon become increasingly magnetically connected with our planet, increasing the likelihood of geomagnetic disturbances. The probability of another strong X-class flare is estimated at 15%, while more moderate C- and M-class flares are expected to occur over the next 24 hours with a probability of 99% and 60%, respectively.

The solar cycle typically follows an 11-year pattern, with increasing numbers of flares and sunspots erupting until it reaches its peak mid-cycle. The current solar cycle is known as Solar Cycle 25.



Confidence

80%

Doubts
  • It's not clear if there have been any previous solar flares that were as powerful as this one during this current solar cycle.

Sources

70%

  • Unique Points
    • The solar flare was the largest in the current solar cycle and also the largest since 2017.
    • Solar cycles typically follow an 11-year pattern, with increasing numbers of flares and sunspots erupting until it reaches its peak mid-cycle.
  • Accuracy
    • This X6.3 burst of radiation was more powerful than the solar flare NASA measured on Dec. 18.
  • Deception (50%)
    The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, it states that flares of this magnitude are not frequent but fails to provide any context or data to support this claim. Secondly, the article quotes Dr. Ryan French stating that the current solar cycle started in 2020 and will reach peak activity by mid-cycle without providing any evidence for these claims. Thirdly, the article states that harmful radiation from a flare cannot pass through Earth's atmosphere to physically affect humans on the ground but fails to mention that this is only true if there are no geomagnetic storms associated with the solar flares.
    • The statement 'flares of this magnitude are not frequent' is deceptive as it does not provide any context or data to support this claim.
    • The statement 'the current Solar Cycle 25 started in 2020 and will reach peak activity by mid-cycle' is deceptive as it fails to provide any evidence for these claims.
    • The statement 'harmful radiation from a flare cannot pass through Earth's atmosphere to physically affect humans on the ground' is deceptive as it only applies if there are no geomagnetic storms associated with the solar flares.
  • Fallacies (85%)
    The article contains an appeal to authority when it quotes Dr. Ryan French and Robert Leamon as experts on the topic of solar flares. The author also uses inflammatory rhetoric by stating that this is 'the largest in years' and 'largest since 2017'. Additionally, there are examples of dichotomous depictions when the article states that while harmful radiation from a flare cannot pass through Earth's atmosphere to physically affect humans on the ground, it can spark geomagnetic storms on Earth which can cause harm. The author also uses an informal fallacy by stating 'we are certainly entering an increased period of solar activity!'.
    • The largest in years',
    • largest since 2017'
    • 'We are certainly entering an increased period of solar activity!'
  • Bias (85%)
    The article contains a statement that the solar flare was the largest in current solar cycle and also the largest since 2017. This is an example of religious bias as it implies that there are specific dates or cycles associated with divine events.
    • since larger flares occurred near peak of previous solar cycle.
      • > Yesterday's X6 flare was the largest in current solar cycle and also the largest since 2017,
      • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
        The article discusses the solar flare that occurred on February 23rd, which is a topic of interest for NASA and the National Science Foundation's National Solar Observatory. The author Dr. Ryan French has previously worked at this observatory in New Mexico.
        • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication

        83%

        • Unique Points
          • Two powerful solar flares erupted from the sun on Wednesday (Feb. 21) and during the early morning of Thursday (Feb. 22).
          • An X6.3 flare released at 23:43 CET last night was the strongest observed during this solar cycle.
          • We expect further flares from this region in the coming days with a probability of another strong X-class flare estimated at 15%.
        • Accuracy
          • The two solar flares occurred in a region of the sun that continues to exhibit strong magnetic complexity.
          • Nationwide throughout the United States, widespread cellular outages were reported on Thursday morning following the solar flares. According to The Associated Press, tens of thousands of outages were reported by major cellular carriers such as AT&T, Verzion and T-Mobile.
          • It remains unclear if the two events are related, but reports of outages appeared to begin around the same time as the solar flares.
          • Some solar scientists have cast doubts on claims that there is a connection between the two events.
        • Deception (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Fallacies (85%)
          The article contains an appeal to authority fallacy by stating that NOAA issued a solar radio emission alert. The author also presents information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) without providing any context or explanation of their expertise in the matter.
          • Bias (100%)
            None Found At Time Of Publication
          • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
            There are multiple examples of conflicts of interest in this article. The author has a financial stake in the companies that may be affected by solar flares and radio blackouts, as they report on major carriers such as AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile.
            • @NASA/SDO solar image of X1.7 class solar flare on Feb 21 2024 at 6:57 pm ET (2307 GMT)
              • @NASA/SDO solar image of X1.9-class solar flare on Feb 22 2024 at 3:58 am ET (6:58 GMT)
                • nationwide cellular outages
                  • tens of thousands of outages reported by major carriers such as AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile
                  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                    The author has a conflict of interest on the topic of solar flares and their impact on communication systems. The article mentions that there were nationwide cellular outages reported by major carriers such as AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile due to radio blackouts caused by the X1.8-class solar flare on February 21st, 2024 at 6:57 pm ET (2307 GMT). The author also mentions that there were widespread auroras worldwide in a silver lining which could be seen as a positive aspect of the event. However, this does not disclose any potential financial ties or personal relationships with these companies.
                    • The article mentions nationwide cellular outages reported by major carriers such as AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile due to radio blackouts caused by the X1.8-class solar flare on February 21st, 2024 at 6:57 pm ET (2307 GMT).
                      • The author mentions that there were widespread auroras worldwide in a silver lining which could be seen as a positive aspect of the event.

                      84%

                      • Unique Points
                        • The solar flare was the largest in the current solar cycle and also the largest since 2017.
                        • This X6.3 burst of radiation was more powerful than the solar flare NASA measured on Dec. 18.
                      • Accuracy
                        • An X1.8-class flare occurred at 6:07 p.m. ET (2307 GMT) on Feb. 21, and another, an X1.7 class flare, erupted at 1:32 a.m. ET (0632 GMT) on Feb.
                        • The two solar flares occurred in a region of the sun that continues to exhibit strong magnetic complexity.
                      • Deception (50%)
                        The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author claims that there was no impact on satellite navigation or communication in Europe due to the solar flare. However, this statement is false as it has been reported by other sources that GPS signals were disrupted for a short period of time after the flare occurred.
                        • The article states 'There was no impact on satellite navigation or communication in Europe.' However, according to NASA's Space Weather Prediction Center, GPS signals were disrupted for a short period of time after the flare occurred. (Source: <https://www.spaceweather.gov/incoe_watch>)
                      • Fallacies (85%)
                        The article contains several fallacies. Firstly, the author uses an appeal to authority by stating that a solar flare was not associated with Energetic Solar Particles or Coronal Mass Ejections without providing any evidence for this claim. Secondly, the author makes a false dilemma by stating that largest flare of current solar cycle as of 22 February 2024 when in fact it is only one day after the article was published and there may be more powerful flares later on. Thirdly, the author uses inflammatory rhetoric by describing the impact of a CME associated with any future flare as 'geomagnetic disturbances' which can sound alarming to readers without providing context or explanation.
                        • The article states that a solar flare was not associated with Energetic Solar Particles or Coronal Mass Ejections, but no evidence is provided for this claim.
                        • The author describes the impact of a CME as 'geomagnetic disturbances' which can sound alarming to readers without providing context or explanation.
                        • The article states that largest flare of current solar cycle as of 22 February 2024, but it is only one day after the article was published and there may be more powerful flares later on.
                      • Bias (100%)
                        None Found At Time Of Publication
                      • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                        None Found At Time Of Publication
                      • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
                        None Found At Time Of Publication