Biden has nearly erased Trump's early polling advantage, amid signs that the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind him despite lingering doubts about the direction of the country, the economy and his age.
President Biden is closing in on former president Donald Trump's edge in the 2024 presidential election.
The latest polls show that President Biden is closing in on former president Donald Trump's edge in the 2024 presidential election. According to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday, Biden has nearly erased Trumpd early polling advantage, amid signs that the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind him despite lingering doubts about the direction of the country, the economy and his age.
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. The president's popularity has ticked up slightly, though voters still view Donald J. Trump more favorably and have dour views of the economy.
President Biden has nearly erased Donald J. Trump's early polling advantage, amid signs that the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind the president despite lingering doubts about the direction of the country, the economy and his age
. According to a new survey by The New York Times and Siena College.
Mr. Biden is now winning 89 percent of his 2020 supporters compared with 94 percent for Mr. Trump.
Accuracy
Biden has whittled down the four-point lead Donald Trump held in February
Trump led Biden 46% to 45% among registered voters.
Asked a follow-up question that added the independent candidates Robert F Kennedy Jr, an environmental lawyer and vaccine sceptic, the Harvard professor Cornel West, and the Green party figure Jill Stein, Biden took the greater hit to his support
According to a new survey by The New York Times and Siena College.
Deception
(30%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, it presents the idea that third-party candidates could pose a risk to Biden's chances of carrying the White House in November when there is no evidence to suggest this. Secondly, it quotes poll respondents who chose 'other' and 'not sure', which are not valid options as they do not represent actual voters. Thirdly, it presents Kennedy Jr.'s presence as siphoning off five points from Biden's support without providing any context or explanation for why this would be the case.
The article suggests that third-party candidates could pose a risk to Biden's chances of carrying the White House in November, but there is no evidence to suggest this.
The article presents Kennedy Jr.'s presence as siphoning off five points from Biden's support without providing any context or explanation for why this would be the case.
Poll respondents were asked who they preferred in a two-candidate contest with options 'other' and 'not sure', which are not valid as they do not represent actual voters.
Fallacies
(75%)
The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing polls as evidence of the candidates' positions and support levels. However, these polls are not necessarily reliable or representative of the entire population. Additionally, the author commits a false dilemma when stating that Biden and Trump are only opposing against each other in a vacuum, implying that third-party candidates do not exist or matter. This is incorrect as third-party candidates can have an impact on the election results.
The article cites polls as evidence of the candidates' positions and support levels.
Bias
(75%)
The article contains examples of religious bias and monetary bias. The author uses language that depicts one side as extreme or unreasonable.
According to the Kennedy campaign, the candidate and vice-presidential pick Nicole Shanahan currently have enough signatures to get on the ballots of just six states: Hawaii, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, North Carolina and New Hampshire.
> Biden has whittled down the four-point lead Donald Trump held in February
< separate study of 1,265 registered voters released on Sunday by I&I/Tipp showed Biden at 43% and Trump at 40% if no other choices are in the mix.
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
Edward Helmore has conflicts of interest on the topics of Biden and Trump as he is reporting for The Guardian which endorsed Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election. He also has a personal relationship with Robert F Kennedy Jr., who is mentioned in the article.
The author's employer, The Guardian, endorsed Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election.
. U.S.WorldBusinessArtsLifestyleOpinionAudioGamesCookingWirecutterThe Athletic Advertisement SKIP ADVERTISEMENT You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access.
. The president's popularity has ticked up slightly, though voters still view Donald J. Trump more favorably and have dour views of the economy.
. President Biden has nearly erased Donald J. Trump's early polling advantage, amid signs that the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind the president despite lingering doubts about the direction of the country, the economy and his age
. According to a new survey by The New York Times and Siena College.
. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are now virtually tied, with Mr. Trump holding a 46 percent to 45 percent edge.
That is an improvement for Mr. Biden from late February, when Mr. Trump had a sturdier 48 percent to 43 percent lead just before he became the presumptive Republican nominee.
. Mr. Biden's tick upward appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters
He is winning a greater share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago.
Then, Mr. Trump had secured the support of far more of his past voters compared with the president
. But that margin has narrowed. Mr. Biden is now winning 89 percent of his 2020 supporters compared with 94 percent for Mr. Trump.
. The tightening poll results are the latest evidence of a close contest in the upcoming election.
In a nation so evenly divided, even the tiniest of shifts in support could prove decisive.
Accuracy
Mr. Biden is now winning 89 percent of his 2020 supporters compared with 94 percent for Mr. Trump.
. That is an improvement for Mr. Biden from late February, when Mr. Trump had a sturdier 48 percent to 43 percent lead just before he became the presumptive Republican nominee.
Mr. Biden's tick upward appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters
. He is winning a greater share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago.
. Then, Mr. Trump had secured the support of far more of his past voters compared with the president
But that margin has narrowed. Mr. Biden is now winning 89 percent of his 2020 supporters compared with 94 percent for Mr. Trump.
Deception
(30%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the title suggests that Biden has shrunk Trump's edge when in fact they are virtually tied. Secondly, the author states that voters still view Trump more favorably and have dour views of the economy despite evidence to suggest otherwise. Thirdly, while it is true that Mr. Biden has improved his standing among traditional Democratic voters compared with a month ago, this improvement is not significant enough to erase Mr. Trump's early polling advantage.
The title suggests that Biden has shrunk Trump's edge when in fact they are virtually tied.
Fallacies
(70%)
The article contains several fallacies. The author uses a dichotomous depiction of the two candidates by stating that President Biden has nearly erased Donald J. Trump's early polling advantage and they are now virtually tied.
>President Biden has nearly erased Donald J. Trump’s early polling advantage, amid signs that the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind the president despite lingering doubts about the direction of the country, the economy and his age.
Bias
(85%)
The article contains examples of religious bias and monetary bias. The author uses language that depicts one side as extreme or unreasonable.
Most voters think Mr. Biden is too old
< President Biden has nearly erased Donald J. Trump's early polling advantage, amid signs that the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind the president despite lingering doubts about the direction of the country, the economy and his age>
> voters still view Donald J. Trump more favorably
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
Shane Goldmacher has a conflict of interest on the topics of Biden and Trump as he is reporting for The New York Times which has been critical of both politicians. He also has a conflict of interest on the topic of the 2024 presidential election as it involves both candidates.
Shane Goldmacher reports for The New York Times, which has been critical of Trump and Biden.
, while in the Saturday poll, that number shifted to 90 percent. Trump, meanwhile, saw a negative trend in this key area,
Accuracy
Trump saw a negative trend in this key area
Biden has whittled down the four-point lead Donald Trump held in February
Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are now virtually tied
President Biden has nearly erased Donald J. Trump's early polling advantage
Deception
(30%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author claims that Biden received 'good news' from a pollster that has been dubbed America's most accurate pollster. However, this statement is misleading as it implies that all of the results from this poll are accurate and trustworthy when in fact they have shown inconsistencies with other surveys. Secondly, the author quotes an expert who claims that Biden's support trended positively in a recent survey conducted by The New York Times/Siena College. However, this statement is also misleading as it implies that all of the results from this poll are accurate and trustworthy when in fact they have shown inconsistencies with other surveys. Thirdly, the author claims that Biden received good news because more respondents now give him a slight edge over Trump in hypothetical match-ups. However, this statement is misleading as it implies that all of the results from these polls are accurate and trustworthy when in fact they have shown inconsistencies with other surveys.
The author claims that Biden received good news because more respondents now give him a slight edge over Trump in hypothetical match-ups. However, this statement is misleading as it implies that all of the results from these polls are accurate and trustworthy when in fact they have shown inconsistencies with other surveys.
The author claims that Biden received 'good news' from a pollster that has been dubbed America's most accurate pollster. However, this statement is misleading as it implies that all of the results from this poll are accurate and trustworthy when in fact they have shown inconsistencies with other surveys.
The author quotes an expert who claims that Biden's support trended positively in a recent survey conducted by The New York Times/Siena College. However, this statement is also misleading as it implies that all of the results from this poll are accurate and trustworthy when in fact they have shown inconsistencies with other surveys.
Fallacies
(85%)
There is one example of an informal fallacy in the article. The author uses a dichotomous depiction when describing polls that show Biden and Trump as neck-and-neck or giving a slight edge to either candidate.
Polling has generally shown the candidates neck-and-neck in hypothetical matchups, though early surveys were generally more likely to give a slight edge to Trump.
Bias
(85%)
The article contains examples of religious bias and monetary bias. The author uses language that depicts one side as extreme or unreasonable by saying 'white supremacists online celebrated the reference to the racist and antisemitic conspiracy.' This is an example of religious bias because it implies that only white people are capable of racism, which is not true. Additionally, the article mentions a pollster being dubbed 'the most accurate in America' without providing any evidence for this claim. The author also uses language like 'President Joe Biden received good news as his support trended in a positive direction.' This implies that there was some sort of monetary gain or benefit to President Biden, which is not true. Finally, the article mentions polling showing a trend towards one candidate over another without providing any context for why this might be happening.
President Joe Biden received good news as his support trended in a positive direction.
white supremacists online celebrated the reference to the racist and antisemitic conspiracy.
. President Joe Biden has gained ground on former President Donald Trump in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll.
Biden is now winning over more of his supporters who voted for him in the last election.
Trump still holds a slight lead with men and rural voters, but he is losing support among women, older voters and minorities.
Accuracy
. President Joe Biden has gained ground on former President Donald Trump in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, cutting into a persistent lead that the ex-president has held for months.
. In the latest Times/Siena poll, Trump led Biden by a razor-thin 46% to 45% margin among registered voters, a tightening from the 48% to 43% advantage he enjoyed in February.
Biden is now winning over more of his supporters who voted for him in the last election. In February, only about three quarters (79%) of Biden's backers said they would vote for him again; now that number has risen to 89%.
Deception
(30%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the title suggests that Biden has cut into Trump's polling lead and now trails by one point when in fact he leads by a razor-thin margin of 46% to 45%. Secondly, the author uses selective reporting to focus on Biden's gains while ignoring any mention of Trump's own struggles. Thirdly, the article presents statistics without providing context or linking them back to peer-reviewed studies which have not been retracted. Fourthly, there is no disclosure of sources in this article.
The title suggests that Biden has cut into Trump's polling lead when he actually leads by a razor-thin margin.
Fallacies
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Bias
(10%)
The article is biased in favor of Biden and his policies. It presents him as having gained ground on Trump, while downplaying the advantages that Trump still has with certain voter groups and issues. The article also implies that Roe v. Wade was struck down because of Trump's appointment of anti-abortion conservatives to the Supreme Court, which is a factually inaccurate statement.
Biden, along with Vice President Kamala Harris, are running hard on abortion and continue to point to Trump's appointment of anti-abortion conservatives to the US Supreme Court as the reason why Roe v. Wade was struck down (which has subsequently created a patchwork of abortion laws across the country). (This is a deceptive statement that implies that Biden and Harris are not responsible for their own policies, but rather blame Trump for something he did not directly do or control.)
Despite low unemployment and a strong jobs market, 63% of respondents disapproved of Biden's handling of the economy, an issue that is perhaps the most serious threat to his reelection bid. (This ignores the fact that Biden's approval rating on other issues such as immigration and abortion rights are higher than Trump's.)
The poll showed that Biden is now winning 89% of his 2020 backers, an increase from February when 83% of the incumbent's 2020 supporters said they'd vote for him again in November. (This implies that Biden has increased his support among his previous voters, which is not necessarily true as it could be due to lower turnout or switching of allegiance by other candidates.)
The poll reflects a narrowing of the contest in the leadup to the November election as the candidates face a dramatically polarized electorate.
Trump whose edge has historically come from strong consolidation of his base lost 3 percent of his 2020 supporters, dropping from 97% in February to 94% in the most recent poll.
Despite Biden's slight headway in the contest with Trump, voters still expressed overall frustration with the president.
Strong disapproval of Biden's record thus far in office stayed at 47 percent, carrying through from February’s poll.
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(30%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, it presents a narrowed contest between Biden and Trump when the poll actually shows that there has been no change in their voter advantage since February. Secondly, the article misrepresents Biden's bump up from February by stating that he has consolidated his base when this is not clear from the data presented. Thirdly, while it states that voters expressed frustration with both candidates, it does not provide any evidence to support this claim.
The poll reflects a narrowing of the contest in the leadup to the November election as the candidates face a dramatically polarized electorate.
Fallacies
(70%)
The article contains several fallacies. Firstly, the author uses an appeal to authority by stating that a New York Times/Siena College poll was conducted and providing no evidence of its credibility or accuracy. Secondly, the author commits a false dilemma by presenting only two options for voters: reelecting Biden or supporting Trump, ignoring other candidates who may also be running in the election. Thirdly, the author uses inflammatory rhetoric by stating that both presidential candidates are largely unpopular among voters and using strong disapproval of Biden's record to support this claim.
The poll reflects a narrowing of the contest in the leadup to the November election as the candidates face a dramatically polarized electorate.
Bias
(85%)
The article contains examples of ideological bias. The author uses language that depicts one side as extreme or unreasonable by stating that the poll reflects a narrowing of the contest in the leadup to the November election as 'the candidates face a dramatically polarized electorate'. This implies that there is only one way to view political issues and positions, which is not accurate. Additionally, when discussing Biden's bump up from February's poll likely indicates consolidation of his base, it suggests that all Democrats are in agreement with him and therefore ignores the diversity within the Democratic party.
The article uses language that depicts one side as extreme or unreasonable by stating that 'the candidates face a dramatically polarized electorate'.
When discussing Biden's bump up from February's poll likely indicates consolidation of his base, it suggests that all Democrats are in agreement with him and therefore ignores the diversity within the Democratic party.
