Nigel Farage has challenged Sir Keir Starmer to a televised debate on migration policies.
Professor John Curtice notes that Reform UK's polling increased after Nigel Farage's decision to lead the party and stand as a candidate.
Reform UK is targeting non-voters to secure Blue Wall seats.
Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is surging in 2024 UK general election polls with an average of 16%.
The shift in voter preferences towards Reform UK could prove devastating for the Conservatives.
The 2024 UK general election is heating up, with record numbers of independent candidates and a significant shift in voter preferences towards Reform UK. Led by Nigel Farage, the party has seen a surge in polling, averaging 16% and even surpassing the Conservatives in some polls.
The presence of Reform UK is changing the dynamic of party competition across all types of seats. One in three voters who backed Conservatives in 2019 are reportedly switching to Reform UK. This shift could prove devastating for the Tories, especially since they are trying to defend their seats.
Professor John Curtice from the University of Strathclyde has noted that Reform UK's polling has increased significantly since Nigel Farage's decision to lead the party and stand as a candidate in Clacton. This move resulted in a three-point increase in polling for the party.
The Liberal Democrats are also experiencing an uptick in support, with an average rating of 12%. The Labour Party, on the other hand, has seen its support decrease slightly to 41%.
Despite Rishi Sunak's insistence on not coming third at the general election and warning people against voting for Nigel Farage's party, Reform UK is targeting non-voters to secure Blue Wall seats. The party leader, Nigel Farage, has challenged Sir Keir Starmer to a televised debate on migration policies.
Reform UK party has seen a significant increase in polling, averaging 16%, up from previous levels.
One poll puts Reform ahead of Conservatives for the first time at 19%.
Nigel Farage’s decision to lead Reform UK and stand as a candidate in Clacton resulted in a three-point increase in polling for the party.
Accuracy
Reform UK is fielding 609 candidates this year compared to 277 in 2019.
One in three voters who backed Conservatives in 2019 are switching to Reform UK according to some polling.
Reform UK is targeting non-voters to secure Blue Wall seats.
Deception
(95%)
The article contains selective reporting as the author only reports polls that support his argument about Reform UK gaining ground and ignores other polls that do not. The author also makes editorializing statements such as 'this is bad news for the Tories' and 'things are actually going backwards'. There is no emotional manipulation or sensationalism in the article.
But this is still bad news for the Tories.
On average, Reform is still four or five points behind the Conservatives.
There are a record number of independent candidates in the election, more than double the number in 2019.
Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is fielding 609 candidates this year compared to 277 in 2019.
Reform UK’s presence changes the dynamic of party competition in all types of seats and does not need to win seats to damage the Conservatives.
One in three voters who backed Conservatives in 2019 are switching to Reform UK according to some polling.
Accuracy
Recent polling shows Conservatives in fifth place across voters under 50, behind Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform and Greens.
Deception
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Fallacies
(85%)
The author makes several appeals to authority and engages in inflammatory rhetoric. They cite analysis from a book and polling data from YouGov without providing context or counterarguments. The author also uses loaded language such as 'devastating for the Conservatives' and 'angry and disillusioned with the government'.
According to estimates from analysis in the book The British General Election of 2019...
With Farage’s surprise takeover of Reform’s leadership at the start of the campaign, Reform poses an even greater challenge to the Conservatives in 2024.
The combined impact of Reform increasing its vote share and standing candidates everywhere could be devastating for the Conservatives.
Nigel Farage declared Reform UK as the ‘new opposition’ after a historic YouGov poll
Reform UK is targeting non-voters to secure Blue Wall seats
Sir Keir Starmer was challenged by Nigel Farage to have a televised debate on migration policies
Accuracy
Nigel Farage claimed that postal ballots are open to fraud and intimidation, but the Electoral Commission stated there is no evidence of widespread voter fraud in the UK
Deception
(50%)
The author makes a false claim about postal voting being open to fraud and intimidation without providing any evidence. The Electoral Commission has stated that there is no evidence of widespread voter fraud in the UK.
Mr Farage claimed that postal ballot is open to fraud and intimidation adding 'it happens in this country all the time' while he was quizzed by callers on BBC's 5 Live.
But the Electoral Commission has said that there is no evidence of widespread voter fraud in the UK.
