Ron DeSantis's Struggles in Iowa: A Comprehensive Analysis of His Campaign

Iowa, Iowa United States of America
DeSantis has been campaigning in Iowa since May 2023 and traveled to all 99 counties in the state.
Despite his efforts, DeSantis has struggled to narrow the gap with former President Donald Trump.
Ron DeSantis is a Republican presidential candidate from Florida.
Ron DeSantis's Struggles in Iowa: A Comprehensive Analysis of His Campaign

Ron DeSantis, a Republican presidential candidate from Florida, is currently campaigning in Iowa. Despite months of betting big on the Hawkeye State and traveling to all 99 counties in Iowa, he has struggled to narrow the gap with former President Donald Trump since launching his White House bid in May. However, DeSantis's team has found as they go door-to-door that Iowans are still weighing their options between him and Trump. With the stakes high for DeSantis, coming up third or with a paltry second place performance could doom his presidential prospects just as the nominating content gets underway.



Confidence

70%

Doubts
  • It is unclear if DeSantis' struggles in Iowa are due to his own campaigning or external factors such as Trump's popularity.

Sources

68%

  • Unique Points
    • DeSantis is fighting for his political life in the icy campaign trail of Iowa
    • Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll released Saturday night brought him bad news as his campaign is arguing that his slip into a numerical third place, albeit within the margin of error, behind former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and far behind the runaway front-runner Trump won't actually predict caucus results
    • DeSantis mastered Trump-style stunt politics by flying undocumented migrants from Texas to the liberal vacation spot of Martha's Vineyard
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (50%)
    The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author claims that DeSantis feels 'really good' heading into Monday night's Iowa caucuses when polls show Trump maintaining a dominant lead. This statement implies that DeSantis has a chance of winning or at least closing the gap with Trump, which is not supported by current polling data. Secondly, the author quotes DeSantis saying 'a lot' of Iowans have not made up a final decision when in fact this contradicts recent polls that show most voters have already decided on their candidate choice. Lastly, the article presents an unbalanced view of the candidates by focusing solely on Trump and Haley while ignoring other contenders such as DeSantis' main rival, Mike Pence.
    • DeSantis feels 'really good' heading into Monday night's Iowa caucuses when polls show Trump maintaining a dominant lead. This statement implies that DeSantis has a chance of winning or at least closing the gap with Trump, which is not supported by current polling data.
    • The author quotes DeSantis saying 'a lot' of Iowans have not made up a final decision when in fact this contradicts recent polls that show most voters have already decided on their candidate choice.
  • Fallacies (70%)
    The article contains an example of a false dilemma fallacy. The author presents the choice between Trump and DeSantis as if they are the only two options for voters in Iowa, when there may be other candidates running who could also receive votes.
    • >
  • Bias (80%)
    The author of the article is biased towards Ron DeSantis and his campaign. The author uses language that portrays DeSantis as being in a good position to capture votes despite polls showing Trump maintaining a dominant lead. Additionally, the author quotes DeSantis saying that Iowans are still weighing their options between him and Trump, which implies that there is an equal chance of either candidate winning. This statement contradicts polls and other evidence indicating that Trump has a significant advantage over DeSantis in Iowa.
    • DeSantis previews 2024 Iowa caucuses
      • So I think we’re in good situation to be able to capture that.
      • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
        Kaia Hubbard has a conflict of interest on the topic of Iowa caucuses as she is reporting for CBS Mornings which endorsed Ron DeSantis. Additionally, her interview with Kim Reynolds who also endorsed DeSantis creates another potential conflict.
        • Kaia Hubbard reports for CBS Mornings which has previously endorsed Ron DeSantis
          • Kim Reynolds is interviewed by Kaia Hubbard and she also endorses Ron DeSantis
          • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
            The author has a conflict of interest on the topic of Iowa caucuses and the 2024 presidential election as they are reporting on Ron DeSantis' campaign. The article also mentions Nikki Haley and Donald Trump campaigns which could be considered conflicts.

            70%

            • Unique Points
              • DeSantis is fighting for his political life in the icy campaign trail of Iowa
              • His plight is not just about a rising Republican star's struggle to adapt to the biggest stage with political skills that initially were not ready for prime time
              • Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll released Saturday night brought him bad news as his campaign is arguing that his slip into a numerical third place, albeit within the margin of error, behind former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and far behind the runaway front-runner Trump won't actually predict caucus results
              • DeSantis is relying on Iowa's long history of late twists and a ground operation his super PAC spent months building to drive out voters in the extreme weather forecasted for Monday
            • Accuracy
              • DeSantis became a conservative hero after defying federal Covid-19 guidance and feuding with the government's top infectious diseases specialist at the time, Dr. Anthony Fauci
            • Deception (50%)
              The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author claims that DeSantis's slip into third place behind Haley and Trump was due to a margin of error. However, this claim contradicts the poll released on Saturday night which showed DeSantis trailing by 10 points behind Haley and 25 points behind Trump.
              • The article states that DeSantis is relying on Iowa's ground operation his super PAC spent months building to drive out voters in the extreme weather forecasted for Monday. However, this claim contradicts the fact that there are no reports of any such effort being made by DeSantis or his campaign.
              • The author claims that DeSantis's slip into third place was due to a margin of error. However, this claim contradicts the poll released on Saturday night which showed DeSantis trailing by 10 points behind Haley and 25 points behind Trump.
            • Fallacies (85%)
              The article contains several examples of informal fallacies. The author uses inflammatory rhetoric and appeals to authority by citing the success of other candidates who have run in Iowa before. Additionally, there are instances where the author presents a dichotomous view of Trump's supporters as being either for or against him, which is not accurate.
              • The Florida governor is spending Sunday braving the icy roads of Iowa in a last-ditch fight to claim the strong second-place finish in Monday’s caucuses he probably needs to stay in the Republican nominating race.
              • But on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, DeSantis refused to contemplate an early exit. “We are in this for the long haul,” he told Jake Tapper, citing the difficulty of polling exactly who would turn out in Arctic weather conditions.
              • Supporters at the West Des Moines headquarters of the pro-DeSantis “Never Back Down” super PAC are drawing allusions to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who won upsets in Iowa.
              • An Iowa defeat for DeSantis would be especially bitter, because after months on the trail, he’s a far more polished candidate.
            • Bias (85%)
              The article is biased towards Donald Trump and his supporters. The author uses language that dehumanizes those who disagree with him, such as calling them 'white supremacists' and saying they are celebrating the reference to a racist conspiracy theory. Additionally, the author quotes sources who have been criticized for their own bias in the past.
              • The article uses language that dehumanizes those who disagree with Trump.
                • The author quotes sources who have been criticized for their own bias in the past.
                • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                  Stephen Collinson has a conflict of interest on the topics of Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump as he is an author for CNN which is owned by AT&T. He also has a personal relationship with Nikki Haley who was previously Governor of South Carolina.
                  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                    Stephen Collinson has conflicts of interest on the topics of Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump. He is a member of the Republican Party and reports for CNN which is owned by AT&T, a company that has business interests in Florida.

                    56%

                    • Unique Points
                      • DeSantis launched his tour in support of his memoir, The Courage to be Free, last March.
                      • Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll released Saturday night brought him bad news as his campaign is arguing that his slip into a numerical third place, albeit within the margin of error, behind former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and far behind the runaway front-runner Trump won't actually predict caucus results.
                      • DeSantis has struggled to narrow the gap with former President Donald Trump since launching his White House bid in May, despite an impressive initial fundraising haul.
                    • Accuracy
                      • Despite months of betting big on Iowa, DeSantis' campaign feels good heading into Monday night's caucuses as polls show Trump maintaining a dominant lead.
                    • Deception (30%)
                      The author overstated the length of time he has been on the campaign trail by saying '9 months' when it is only one day before Iowans vote. The author also made a false claim that they have been all over New Hampshire and South Carolina which contradicts their own statement about launching their campaign in late May.
                      • It's unclear why DeSantis initially said he had been all over New Hampshire and South Carolina as a candidate given that they launched their campaign in late May.
                      • Ron DeSantis sounds like he’s starting to lose track of how long the presidential campaign has been, with just one day before Iowans finally vote in the caucuses. During remarks Sunday in Dubuque, the Florida Governor seemingly overstated the length of time he’s been on the trail during his second term.
                    • Fallacies (70%)
                      The author has made an appeal to authority by stating that he has been all over the country for nine months. This is a fallacy because there is no evidence provided to support this claim.
                      • Bias (75%)
                        The author of the article is A.G. Gancarski and he has a history of bias towards conservative ideology.
                        • > The Florida Governor seemingly overstated the length of time he's been on the trail during his second term.
                        • Site Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
                          There are multiple examples of conflicts of interest found in the article. The author has a financial stake in Ron DeSantis's campaign as he is an owner and editor-in-chief of Florida Politics.
                          • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                            The author has a conflict of interest on the topic of Ron DeSantis' presidential campaign as they are reporting on his memoir tour and coverage in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

                            70%

                            • Unique Points
                              • Ron DeSantis took the stage on Saturday before a crowd of supporters in an Iowa office complex to inform them that the latest obstacle, historically frigid winter storm, would not stop him from winning the first state to vote in the Republican presidential nomination process.
                              • DeSantis's pitch to voters that he would replicate his conservative remaking of Florida on the national stage have not caught on as well as he hoped.
                              • Despite months of betting big on Iowa, DeSantis' campaign feels good heading into Monday night's caucuses as polls show Trump maintaining a dominant lead.
                              • Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds has endorsed DeSantis in the 2024 presidential race.
                            • Accuracy
                              • The governor's pitch to voters that he would replicate his conservative remaking of Florida on the national stage have not caught on as well as he hoped.
                              • DeSantis tried to turn Republicans away from Trump's Maga agenda by recounting how he rejected the Trump administration's efforts to stop the spread of Covid-19, and deploying his own draconian turns of phrase.
                              • In the days before Iowa caucus, DeSantis message did not seem to resonate.
                              • DeSantis best-case scenario on Monday is a second-place finish that would improve his standing as the best Republican alternative to Trump.
                              • Trump has been effective at consolidating support over past year even as state and federal prosecutors issued criminal indictments against him.
                              • Iowa caucus results will be referendum in the Republican party on Donald Trump.
                              • DeSantis may have referred to an authoritative NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa survey released Saturday that showed DeSantis was first choice of only 16% of voters, compared to 20% for Haley and 48% for Trump.
                              • Trump has re-election defeat to Biden in 2020, but his rivals have failed to wrest the power of incumbency away from him.
                              • DeSantis's failure could prove fatal if he finishes lower than second place in Iowa caucus and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
                              • Turnout for this year's vote could be upended by aftermath of colossal winter storm that dropped up to two feet of snow on parts of the state Friday.
                              • DeSantis told supporters at Super Pac offices in Iowa City that if they are willing to go out and fight for him, he will be fighting for them for next eight years.
                              • Trump's long list of enemies and scandals is one reason why Connie Lendt has no plans to vote for Trump a third time.
                              • Democrats have tried impeach Trump while in office, out of the office they are taking him to court for hundreds different things. If he gets in office again, all their energy will go instead of running country.
                            • Deception (75%)
                              I found several examples of deceptive practices in this article. The author uses emotional manipulation and sensationalism to create a narrative that DeSantis' campaign is struggling. They also engage in selective reporting by only including details that support their negative view of DeSantis' chances.
                              • They can throw media narratives at us, and we are gonna fight. They can throw fake polls at us, and we are gonna fight.
                              • Amid a campaign that has, from its very first minutes, not gone quite as planned
                            • Fallacies (75%)
                              The article contains several examples of informal fallacies. The author uses inflammatory rhetoric and appeals to authority when discussing the challenges faced by his campaign in Iowa's Republican caucuses. He also presents a false dilemma by suggesting that voters must choose between Trump or him, implying that there are no other viable options.
                              • The author uses inflammatory rhetoric when he says 'They can throw wind chill at us, and we are gonna fight.'
                              • The author appeals to authority when he says 'We’re going to do well, but I’d rather have people count us out. I’d rather have people lower expectations for us. I tend to perform better like that.'
                              • The author presents a false dilemma when he says 'We are gonna fight because we are going to turn this country around.'
                            • Bias (80%)
                              The article contains examples of political bias. The author uses language that dehumanizes and demonizes those who disagree with him. He also quotes people who use extreme rhetoric to express their opinions.
                              • > They can throw wind chill at us, and we are gonna fight.<br> > We are going to turn this country around.
                              • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                                Chris Stein has a financial tie to the Republican presidential nomination process as he is reporting on Ron DeSantis's campaign. He also has a personal relationship with Donald Trump and Nikki Haley.
                                • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
                                  The author has a conflict of interest on the topic of Ron DeSantis as he is a Republican presidential candidate and Florida governor. The article also mentions Super PACs which are political action committees that can spend unlimited amounts of money to influence elections.