Russia's Advancements in Ukraine: Control of Key Territories and Preparation for a Long Conflict

Putin identified demilitarization, denazification, and territorial gains as goals in Ukraine.
Putin is preparing for a long conflict against Ukraine.
Russia has controlled Crimea and parts of Donbas region in Ukraine since before the invasion.
Russia opened a new front near Kharkiv but progress is unlikely due to Ukrainian defenses and U.S. weapons.
Ukraine's counteroffensive last year fizzled.
Russia's Advancements in Ukraine: Control of Key Territories and Preparation for a Long Conflict

In recent developments, Russia has made significant advancements on its war against Ukraine. Putin, who identified demilitarization and denazification as essential to Russia's security when he launched the 'special military operation', has effectively controlled two pieces of Ukrainian territory prior to the invasion: Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed, and parts of two provinces in the eastern Donbas region where it installed pro-Russian separatist leaders. As Russian President Vladimir Putin's goals in Ukraine fall into three categories - weakening or disrupting Ukraine's ties with NATO, stymieing Ukrainian nationalism, and expanding territorial gains - Russia has opened a new front in the war near the key Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. A recent surge of U.S. weapons and Russia's inability to coordinate its ground and air forces make a breakthrough unlikely; however, Kharkiv, the second-largest city southeast of Kyiv, could face more bombing as Russian artillery draws near. Ukraine's defenses were more robust than expected, pushing back the Russian army and retaking territory. However, a Ukrainian counteroffensive that took place last year fizzled. As Russia shows resilience in the war against Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long conflict. The United States and its European allies need to engage in their own fresh thinking about how best to help Ukraine fight back.



Confidence

85%

Doubts
  • How effective have the U.S. weapons been in stopping Russian progress?
  • Is there any evidence that Ukraine's ties with NATO have been significantly weakened?

Sources

81%

  • Unique Points
    • A new Russian offensive has clawed back miles of terrain near the key Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
    • Russian President Vladimir Putin's sons from Moscow and St. Petersburg have thus far been spared from the war.
  • Accuracy
    • Russia seeks to establish a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine to prevent cross-border attacks that have targeted Russian cities near the border.
    • Ukrainian troops, backed by billions of dollars worth of U.S. weapons, are expected to limit Russian gains.
    • Kharkiv, the second-largest city in Ukraine and located southeast of Kyiv, could face more bombing as Russian artillery draws near.
  • Deception (30%)
    The article contains editorializing and pontification by Seth Jones, a military analyst from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He states his opinions about the war in Ukraine, Russia's gains, and Ukrainian morale without providing any evidence or facts to support his claims. The author also uses sensational language such as 'grinding two-year war of attrition', 'intensified fighting', and 'significant escalation in the war'. These phrases are meant to manipulate emotions and create a sense of urgency, but they do not provide any new information or insights.
    • There are no peace talks, and no interest in them from the Ukrainians. Russia feels it has the initiative.
    • The Ukrainians are not in danger of losing, but they're not winning right now
    • It's hard, but they're holding on: On the ground in Ukraine, the war depends on U.S. weapons
  • Fallacies (85%)
    The article contains several informal fallacies and a dichotomous depiction. The author quotes Seth Jones making the statement 'The Ukrainians are not in danger of losing, but they're not winning right now.' This is an example of a loaded language fallacy as 'not winning' implies that Ukraine is losing, which is not the case according to Jones. Additionally, the author states 'Russia feels it has the initiative.' This statement implies that Russia has control over the situation and is making progress in the war, which may not be entirely true. The article also uses a dichotomous depiction by stating 'Ukraine war:Blinken visits Kyiv as Russia ramps up military offensive Russia seeks a Ukraine buffer zone' implying that there are only two options for what is happening in Ukraine - either the U.S. is visiting to help or Russia is ramping up its military presence to create a buffer zone, when in reality there may be other factors at play. The article also contains several instances of inflammatory rhetoric such as 'Russia has concentrated up to 35,000 soldiers on its side of the border' and 'Each day, nearly 900 Russian troops are killed or wounded in action.' These statements may be true but they are presented in a way that is intended to evoke an emotional response from the reader.
    • The Ukrainians are not in danger of losing, but they're not winning right now.
    • Russia feels it has the initiative.
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

98%

  • Unique Points
    • ]Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022[
    • Putin identified demilitarization and denazification as essential to Russia’s security when he launched the ‘special military operation’.
    • Putin has effectively controlled two pieces of Ukrainian territory prior to the invasion: Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed, and parts of two provinces in the eastern Donbas region where it installed pro-Russian separatist leaders.
  • Accuracy
    • A new Russian offensive has clawed back miles of terrain near the key Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
    • Russia seeks to establish a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine to prevent cross-border attacks that have targeted Russian cities near the border.
    • Ukrainian troops, backed by billions of dollars worth of U.S. weapons, are expected to limit Russian gains.
    • Kharkiv, the second-largest city in Ukraine and located southeast of Kyiv, could face more bombing as Russian artillery draws near.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

81%

  • Unique Points
    • Ukraine's defenses were more robust than expected, pushing back Russian army and retaking territory
    • A Ukrainian counteroffensive fizzled last year
  • Accuracy
    • Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022
    • Russia has proven resilient economically and militarily
    • President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long war
  • Deception (30%)
    The article contains some selective reporting and emotional manipulation. It highlights the resilience of Russia and the struggles of Ukraine, but fails to mention that the Ukrainian counteroffensive fizzled due to a lack of sufficient weapons provided by the U.S.-led coalition. The article also implies that Putin is preparing for a long war while Ukraine is struggling, without disclosing sources.
    • When Ukraine’s defenses proved much more robust than expected, pushing Russia’s army back and retaking territory...
    • The United States, and its allies, need to engage in their own fresh thinking about how best to help Ukraine fight back.
    • However, a Ukrainian counteroffensive fizzled last year; Russia has proven resilient, economically and militarily.
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

85%

  • Unique Points
    • Russian President Vladimir Putin's goals in Ukraine fall into three categories: weakening or disrupting Ukraine’s ties with NATO, stymieing Ukrainian nationalism, and expanding territorial gains.
    • Putin has long opposed Ukrainian membership in NATO and sees it as a threat to Russia’s security.
    • Putin identified demilitarization and denazification as essential to Russia’s security when he launched the ‘special military operation’.
    • Moscow wanted Kyiv to ban neo-Nazism and aggressive nationalism and repeal laws that contradicted the Kremlin-approved version of Soviet-era history.
    • Putin has effectively controlled two pieces of Ukrainian territory prior to the invasion: Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed, and parts of two provinces in the eastern Donbas region where it installed pro-Russian separatist leaders.
    • Putin's territorial ambitions include controlling all of Ukraine east of the Dnipro River or the territory once known as Novorossiya. This would give Russia full control over the Sea of Azov and most of the north shore of the Black Sea, turning a rump Ukraine into a landlocked country.
  • Accuracy
    • ]Russian President Vladimir Putin's goals in Ukraine fall into three categories: weakening or disrupting Ukraine's ties with NATO, stymieing Ukrainian nationalism, and expanding territorial gains.[
    • Putin's territorial ambitions include controlling all of Ukraine east of the Dnipro River or the territory once known as Novorossiya.
  • Deception (50%)
    The article makes editorializing statements about Putin's goals and motivations, implying that his concerns about NATO expansion and Ukrainian nationalism are unwarranted. It also implies that Putin's desire for Ukraine to have neutrality and demilitarization is a form of denazification, which is not explicitly stated in the text but implied through context. The article also makes assumptions about Putin's real goals without providing concrete evidence.
    • It is the task of Ukraine and the West to ensure that he does not succeed.
    • Putin firmly believes that today’s Ukraine was the creation of the Soviet-era leader Vladimir Lenin and his Bolshevik comrades, who gave it some of Russia’s ‘Historical lands.’
    • The three key demands in these treaties were an end to NATO expansion, a prohibition on the deployment of offensive weapons along Russia’s borders, and the withdrawal of NATO infrastructure back to the lines of 1997.
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

96%

  • Unique Points
    • Russian President Vladimir Putin has installed an economist as his defense minister to boost weaponry production.
    • Russia is setting the stage for a major offensive this summer with rebuilt stockpiles and a wartime economy.
  • Accuracy
    • Russian forces have found and copied tactics to drive Ukraine back.
    • Ukrainian troops, backed by billions of dollars worth of U.S. weapons, are expected to limit Russian gains.
    • Russia seeks to establish a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine to prevent cross-border attacks that have targeted Russian cities near the border.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication