A tropical storm is expected to form in the Atlantic Ocean this weekend.
Historically, hurricanes in the Caribbean during July are rare but anomalously warm water temperatures and relaxed high-altitude winds could favor an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season this year.
System 95L has a 70% chance of intensifying into a tropical depression or storm and could bring wet and squally weather to the Lesser Antilles and northern coast of South America as early as June 30.
The first system is currently located midway between South America and Africa and is expected to intensify into a tropical depression or storm over the coming days.
The second system, located in the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola, has a 20% chance of developing over the next seven days.
Two systems, 95L and another one south of Hispaniola, are being monitored for possible development.
A tropical storm is expected to form this weekend in the Atlantic Ocean, as two systems, 95L and another one south of Hispaniola in the Caribbean, are being monitored for possible development. The National Hurricane Center estimates a 70% chance that system 95L will intensify into a tropical depression or storm. This potential storm could bring wet and squally weather to the Lesser Antilles and northern coast of South America as early as June 30, making it an early start to the Atlantic hurricane season. Historically, hurricanes in the Caribbean during July are rare; however, anomalously warm water temperatures and relaxed high-altitude winds could favor an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season this year.
The first system is currently located midway between South America and Africa and has been moving westward. It is expected to intensify into a tropical depression or storm over the coming days, with some models suggesting it could strengthen into a hurricane as it drifts toward the Caribbean. The second system, located in the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola, is producing disorganized showers and has a 20% chance of developing over the next seven days.
The potential intensity and path of these systems remain uncertain. It is crucial to stay informed about their progression as they could impact various regions, including the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and potentially even parts of the United States. The National Hurricane Center will continue to monitor both systems closely and provide updates accordingly.
A tropical wave, Invest 95L, is moving westward in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and is expected to become the season’s next tropical depression or storm.
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Accuracy
This system may encounter less wind shear than usual and could develop into at least a tropical depression by this weekend.
Another system located in the northwest Caribbean has a lower chance of tropical development but will bring heavy rainfall to Mexico and Central America.
Historically, the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t peak until mid-September on average.
Already, a scatterometer suggests the storm has 35 mph winds, just below tropical storm force.
The operational versions of the GFS and European model predict the development of system 95L over multiple cycles, with some suggesting it could reach hurricane strength by Sunday or Monday.
Tropical wave 95L is moving through the central tropical Atlantic and may pose a threat to the Lesser Antilles and northern coast of South America as early as June 30.
Record-warm ocean temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic give system 95L a chance of developing into a named storm this weekend.
Some models predict that system 95L could become a dangerous long-track Cabo Verde-type hurricane.
Accuracy
Conditions were quite favorable for development with sea surface temperatures near record warm, light wind shear, and moist atmosphere.
The operational versions of the GFS and European model predict the development of system 95L over multiple cycles, with some suggesting it could reach hurricane strength by Sunday or Monday.
System 95L is expected to pass through the Windward Islands between Monday morning and Monday night, then enter the Eastern Caribbean.
