Former President Donald Trump made history on May 31, 2024, as the first former or serving US president to be found guilty of a crime. Trump's conviction in a New York criminal trial for falsifying business records related to hush money payments has left many wondering about its impact on his presidential campaign and the upcoming election.
Despite having 34 felony convictions, Trump is likely to be able to vote for himself in November based on Florida and New York's voting rights restoration laws. In Florida, people with felony convictions can vote depending on the law in the state where they are convicted. New York allows people with felony convictions to vote if they are not incarcerated.
Trump's conviction might change voter support in key swing states that will decide the election. Younger voters and college-educated suburban voters, who have been hesitant to support Trump due to his demeanor and approach to governing, may be further influenced by the guilty verdict.
Trump's base seems to view his conviction as a strengthening factor for his campaign. Some Americans reacted with outrage or indifference, while others expressed glee that Trump had been convicted. The Biden Campaign has yet to comment on the matter.
The sentencing on July 11 could potentially include prison time and a hefty fine, but it remains to be seen how this will play out in the political landscape.
Exit polls conducted during the Republican primaries this winter showed that double-digit numbers of voters would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a felony. Ipsos and ABC News found that 16% of those backing Trump would reconsider their support in such a situation, but these findings are based on hypothetical convictions.
The hush-money case is just one aspect of Trump's legal troubles. He faces three other indictments and ongoing investigations related to his business dealings and foreign adversaries. The November general election campaign will likely focus on issues such as inflation, the southern border, competition with China and Russia, and the money being spent on Israel and Ukraine.
