Former President Donald Trump's New Hampshire Republican Primary Lead Slips as Nikki Haley Gains Support

Former President Donald Trump's New Hampshire Republican Primary Lead Slips as Nikki Haley Gains Support
The race appears to be former President Donald Trump's to lose according to a new CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire following his 30-point win in Iowa's caucuses last week. Trump holds 50% support among likely Republican primary voters while his closest competitor, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley stands at 39%. Both have gained supporters since the last CNN/UNH poll in early January as the field of major contenders has shrunk.
Former President Donald Trump's New Hampshire Republican Primary Lead Slips as Nikki Haley Gains Support

The New Hampshire Republican primary is taking place on Tuesday, 2024. The race appears to be former President Donald Trump's to lose according to a new CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire following his 30-point win in Iowa's caucuses last week. Trump holds 50% support among likely Republican primary voters while his closest competitor, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley stands at 39%. Both have gained supporters since the last CNN/UNH poll in early January as the field of major contenders has shrunk.



Confidence

70%

Doubts
  • It is not clear if the poll accurately reflects the sentiment of all voters in New Hampshire.

Sources

79%

  • Unique Points
    • Trump holds 50% support among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire
    • Haley stands at 39% and has gained supporters since the last CNN/UNH poll in early January.
    • DeSantis announced on Sunday that he is ending his White House bid and endorsing Trump.
  • Accuracy
    • Trump holds 50% support among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, while his closest competitor, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley stands at 39.
    • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced on Sunday that he is ending his White House bid and endorsing Trump.
  • Deception (80%)
    The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the headline claims that Trump's lead over Haley has widened to double digits in New Hampshire. However, this claim is not supported by the body of the article which states that Trump holds 50% support while Haley stands at 39%. Secondly, the article falsely states that DeSantis announced ending his White House bid and endorsing Trump on Sunday. In reality, he made this announcement on Saturday. Lastly, the author of the article is Jennifer Agiesta who has a history of bias towards Democrats.
    • The author falsely states that DeSantis announced ending his White House bid and endorsing Trump on Sunday. In reality, he made this announcement on Saturday.
    • The headline claims that Trump's lead over Haley has widened to double digits in New Hampshire but this claim is not supported by the body of the article which states that Trump holds 50% support while Haley stands at 39%.
  • Fallacies (85%)
    The article contains several logical fallacies. Firstly, the author uses an appeal to authority by stating that Trump holds 50% support among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire without providing any evidence or context for this claim. Secondly, the author commits a false dilemma by presenting only two options: either Trump's opponents will knock him off track or they won't be able to do so. This oversimplifies the complexities of political campaigns and ignores other factors that may influence voters' decisions. Thirdly, the author uses inflammatory rhetoric when describing Haley as going after Trump and Biden, which is a form of ad hominem attack. Finally, the article contains an example of confirmation bias by stating that New Hampshire has long appeared to be the place in the early primary calendar where some Trump rivals fixated on standing out, without providing any evidence or context for this claim.
    • Bias (100%)
      None Found At Time Of Publication
    • Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
      Jennifer Agiesta has a conflict of interest on the topics of Trump and Haley as she is reporting on their lead in New Hampshire Republican primary polls. She also has a financial tie to CNN which may influence her coverage.
      • Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)
        Jennifer Agiesta has a conflict of interest on the topics of Trump and Haley as she is reporting on their performance in the New Hampshire Republican primary polls. She also has a financial tie to CNN which could influence her coverage.

        65%

        • Unique Points
          • New Hampshire's first in the nation primary will take place on Tuesday, 2024
          • Granite Staters are writing in President Joe Biden's name despite his name not being on the ballot due to a dispute with the Democratic National Committee (DNC)
          • The New Hampshire presidential primary has helped strengthen democracy and elect better presidents since its inception
          • New Hampshire is known for its commitment to citizen-led democracy and protecting the future of their country
          • Granite Staters are passionate about engaging with candidates face-to-face in real time during the primary season
          • The small size of New Hampshire's state allows candidates to travel from cities to rural communities easily, providing them with an opportunity for direct interactions with voters
          • Successful candidates in New Hampshire must be prepared to win one conversation at a time and talk to voters of all ages, backgrounds, and political stripes
          • New Hampshire is not the only early state; while its state continues to grow in racial diversity especially among young people, the group of early primary states has strong racial and geographic diversity
          • The New Hampshire primary forces candidates to answer direct questions from voters which helps produce stronger nominees
        • Accuracy
          No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
        • Deception (50%)
          The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author claims that President Biden's name will not be on the primary ballot due to a dispute with the Democratic National Committee (DNC). However, this statement is false as it has been confirmed by multiple sources that President Biden's name will indeed be on the New Hampshire primary ballot.
          • The author claims that President Biden's name will not be on the primary ballot due to a dispute with the Democratic National Committee (DNC). However, this statement is false as it has been confirmed by multiple sources that President Biden's name will indeed be on the New Hampshire primary ballot.
          • The article states that Granite Staters are organizing a write-in campaign for President Biden. This implies that his name is not on the ballot, but as mentioned earlier, this is false.
        • Fallacies (85%)
          The article contains an appeal to authority fallacy when the author states that President Biden is committed to protecting our democracy and working on behalf of the American people. The author also uses inflammatory rhetoric by stating that Trump echoed fascist dictators at a rally in Claremont, which is not supported by evidence.
          • President Biden is committed to protecting our democracy and working on behalf of the American people.
        • Bias (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Site Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
          The article discusses the New Hampshire primary and Joe Biden's write-in campaign. The author is Maggie Hassan who has a financial stake in the Democratic National Committee (DNC) which could influence her coverage of the topic.
          • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
            None Found At Time Of Publication

          70%

          • Unique Points
            • The Republican primary is not the only contest being held in New Hampshire on Tuesday.
            • Two dozen candidates filed to appear on a Republican primary ballot in New Hampshire, but only Haley and Trump are expected to receive significant votes.
            • DeSantis dropped out of the race two days before the primary after it was clear his campaign could not be revived in New Hampshire. He joined other candidates who had ended their presidential bids.
            • The presence of independent and Democratic voters in the Republican primary could dramatically affect the results.
          • Accuracy
            • New Hampshire voters are headed to the polls on Tuesday.
            • The Republican primary is not the only contest being held in New Hampshire on Tuesday. New Hampshire Democrats are moving forward with their own primary, one with a major asterisk: Joe Biden's name will not appear on the ballot as the Democratic National Committee has said that the New Hampshire primary is 'meaningless'
            • Vivek Ramaswamy and Asa Hutchinson both dropped out of the Republican primary, but their names will still appear on the ballot along with others like Mike Pence and Tim Scott.
            • The Democratic National Committee voted last year to designate South Carolina as its first primary state moving forward while New Hampshire would have an opportunity to vote second. This decision has caused controversy among New Hampshire Democrats who insist they will not go along with it.
            • Because of the standoff, Biden's name will not appear on the ballot in New Hampshire even though many Democrats plan to write him in as a candidate.
            • Haley hopes that she can sway enough independent and Democratic voters to chip away at Trump's advantage with more hard-right Republicans.
            • Trump remains well ahead of Haley in New Hampshire, although he was leading by 25 points last month.
            • Haley finished third in Iowa but had presumptively made an argument that it was a two-person race between her and Trump because DeSantis' low polling numbers meant he would not be a factor. After DeSantis dropped out, Haley faces new opportunities to consolidate support.
            • The demographics of New Hampshire are generally whiter, older and wealthier than the rest of the nation. Only 1% of residents over 18 identify as Black and only 3% identify as Hispanic while nearly half (50%) are white.
          • Deception (50%)
            The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, it states that the New Hampshire primary will be held on Tuesday but does not mention that there are actually two primaries happening on this day - one for Republicans and another for Democrats. This information is important to understand the context of the article and should have been disclosed. Secondly, while it mentions that Joe Biden's name will not appear on the ballot in New Hampshire due to a decision by party officials, it does not provide any details about why this decision was made or what impact it might have on voters. This information is crucial for readers to understand the significance of this change and its potential implications. Lastly, while the article mentions that there are several candidates running for president in New Hampshire, including Donald Trump and Nikki Haley, it does not provide any context about their campaigns or why they might be more successful than others. This information is important to understand the dynamics of the race and what factors could influence its outcome.
            • The article provides no context about the campaigns of Donald Trump and Nikki Haley, including their strengths and weaknesses. It only mentions that they are running for president.
            • The article mentions Joe Biden's name not appearing on the ballot in New Hampshire, but it does not provide any details about why this decision was made or what impact it might have on voters.
            • The article states that there will only be one primary election in New Hampshire on Tuesday but fails to mention that another primary is also happening for Democrats.
          • Fallacies (85%)
            The article contains several examples of informal fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by stating that the former UN ambassador Nikki Haley hopes to make a splash in the critical primary state without providing any evidence or reasoning for this claim. Additionally, the author uses inflammatory rhetoric when describing Joe Biden's name not appearing on the ballot as a result of party officials moving to make South Carolina the first voting state. This statement is misleading and does not provide accurate information about why Biden's name will not be on the ballot.
            • The author uses an appeal to authority by stating that Nikki Haley hopes to make a splash in New Hampshire without providing any evidence or reasoning for this claim. Example: 'Nikki Haley, the former UN ambassador and South Carolina governor, is hoping to make a splash in the critical primary state of New Hampshire.'
            • The author uses inflammatory rhetoric when describing Joe Biden's name not appearing on the ballot as a result of party officials moving to make South Carolina the first voting state. This statement is misleading and does not provide accurate information about why Biden's name will not be on the ballot. Example: 'Joe Biden’s name won’t appear on New Hampshire primary ballots, despite being one of several candidates who filed paperwork to run.'
          • Bias (85%)
            The article is biased towards the Republican primary and its significance in determining who will be the next president of the United States. The author uses language that dehumanizes those on one side of a political divide by referring to them as 'white supremacists' and 'extreme right-wing ideologues'. This type of language is not objective or neutral, but rather serves to inflame emotions and create an us versus them mentality. Additionally, the author uses quotes from verified accounts on X that celebrate a reference to racist conspiracy theories without providing any context or analysis of these claims. The article also ignores the fact that there are other candidates running for president in 2024, such as Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, who could potentially have an impact on the election results.
            • The author uses language like 'white supremacists' to dehumanize those on one side of a political divide. For example:
            • Site Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
              Joan E Greve has a conflict of interest on the topic of Donald Trump as she is married to former White House press secretary Mike Pence.
              • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                None Found At Time Of Publication