Evercore ISI raises year-end forecast for S&P 500 Index to 6,XXX due to resilient economy and improving corporate earnings.
Goldman Sachs raises 2024 year-end target for S&P 500 Index to 5,XXX due to strong earnings growth by five mega-cap US tech stocks.
UBS predicts S&P 500 surpassing bullish target due to decreased inflation, interest rates, and record stimulus.
In recent developments, UBS has suggested that the S&P 500 could surpass its bullish target due to the decrease in inflation and interest rates. This potential increase is attributed to record stimulus, elevated cash balances, and low leverage that support consumers. Additionally, GenAI's potential in every job and sector is inflecting markets. Evercore ISI has raised its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 Index to 6,–,–– due to optimism over a resilient economy, improving corporate earnings, and the end of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle. This forecast is higher than other major equity strategists tracked by Bloomberg. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs has raised its 2024 year-end target for the S&P 500 Index to 5,–,–– due to strong earnings growth by five mega-cap U.S. tech stocks and a higher fair value price-to-earnings ratio multiple. However, Mark Spitznagel of Universa Investments sees the S&P 500 jumping another 12% before experiencing the worst crash since 1929 due to asset bubbles bursting as steeper interest costs squeeze consumers and businesses and cause the national debt to balloon even faster. These predictions take into account various factors such as inflation, interest rates, government stimulus, and market trends.
It is important to consider potential geopolitical events or unexpected economic data that could impact these predictions.
The prediction from Mark Spitznagel of Universa Investments about the S&P 500 jumping another 12% before experiencing a crash seems extreme and requires further investigation.
Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, raised his year-end forecast for the S&P 500 Index to 6,000.
The S&P 500 Index has set record after record in 2023.
Record stimulus, elevated cash balances, and low leverage support the consumer.
GenAI’s potential in every job and sector is inflecting.
Accuracy
Julian Emanuel raised his year-end forecast for the S&P 500 Index to 6,000.
Mark Spitznagel expects the S&P 500 to climb another 12% and breach 6,00 articles:[1,2] thousand points for the first time.
Deception
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Fallacies
(95%)
The article contains an appeal to authority fallacy as it mentions that Evercore ISI's forecast for the S&P 500 is the highest among major equity strategists. However, no specific reasoning or evidence is provided to support why this makes Evercore's forecast more accurate.
Evercore ISI's forecast for the S&P 500 is the highest among major equity strategists.
Goldman Sachs raised its 2024 year-end target for the S&P 500 Index to 5,600 from 5,200.
Five mega-cap US tech stocks (Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms) have surged by 45% and now comprise 25% of the S&P 500 equity cap.
These tech companies have seen upward revisions to consensus 2024 earnings estimates.
Investor enthusiasm about artificial intelligence is contributing to valuation expansion for these tech companies.
Accuracy
The US holds its next presidential election in November this year, which is a key risk to the S&P 500 level.
Universa Investments specializes in protecting portfolios against extreme and unpredictable 'tail risks' in markets.
Spitznagel expects those bubbles to burst as steeper interest costs squeeze consumers and businesses and cause the national debt to balloon even faster.
Spitznagel has previously warned that too much easy money inflated asset and credit bubbles.
Accuracy
Universa Investments expects the S&P 500 to climb another 12% and breach 6,000 points for the first time.
Julian Emanuel sees the possibility of the S&P 500 reaching 7,000 by the end of 2025.
Goldman Sachs expects roughly unchanged real yields by the year-end and strong earnings growth for a 15x P/E for the equal-weight S&P 500 Index.
Deception
(30%)
The author makes editorializing statements and uses emotional manipulation by implying fear of a market crash. He also engages in selective reporting by focusing on the potential for a market crash without providing any evidence or context to support this claim.
At the point of euphoria – which is coming – the high will be in and the market will crash worse than the global financial crisis.
The worst market crash in a century to follow.
Fallacies
(85%)
The author makes an appeal to authority by mentioning that Mark Spitznagel is a 'Black Swan' investor and the founder and chief of Universa Investments. He also mentions that Nassim Taleb, the author of 'The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable', is Universa's scientific advisor. This appeal to authority does not necessarily mean that Spitznagel's predictions are fallacious, but it can be seen as an attempt to lend credibility to his views based on his association with these individuals and their reputations.
]The boss of a 'Black Swan' fund expects the S&P 500 to jump another 12% to a record 6,000 points. But Universa Investments’ Mark Spitznagel expects the worst market crash in a century to follow.[
Mark Spitznagel, the founder and chief of Universa Investments, told Business Insider in an email:
