All three main sectors of the economy contracted in Q4: services (-0.2%), production (-1%) and construction output (-1.3%)
GDP per capita contracted by 1.5% in Q4, after a decline of 0.9% in the previous three months, and fell further through each quarter of last year
Inflation remains above target and is squeezing household finances; headline CPI reading was at 4% year-on-year in January
The UK economy has entered a recession with GDP shrinking by 0.3% in Q4 of 2023
The UK economy has entered a recession, with GDP shrinking by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2023 and two consecutive quarters of negative growth. This marks the first time since the pandemic began that Britain has fallen into a technical recession.
All three main sectors of the economy contracted in Q4: services (-0.2%), production (-1%) and construction output (-1.3%). The British GDP is estimated to have increased by just 0.1% in 2023, compared to 2022.
Inflation has come down markedly in the UK but remains above target and is squeezing household finances; headline CPI reading was at 4% year-on-year in January . GDP per capita contracted by 1.5% in Q4, after a decline of 0.9% in the previous three months, and fell further through each quarter of last year.
The recession is likely to be shallow and short-lived; it may not reflect true state of economy which is set for a muted recovery in 2024. UK GDP contracting in both December and Q4 of 2023 was mainly due to persistently high inflation, structural weaknesses in labor market, low productivity growth and adverse weather conditions . Inflation print of January undershot forecasts for a reacceleration; it is expected to fall further potentially easing pressure on UK households.
The key indicator to watch is inflation in the services sector which accounts for bulk of UK's economic activity, employment and reflects strength of wage growth and consumer demand crucial for recovery.
The UK economy slipped into a technical recession in the final quarter of 2023
UK GDP shrank by 0.3% in the fourth quarter, marking two consecutive quarters of negative growth
All three main sectors of the economy contracted in Q4: services (-0.2%), production (-1%) and construction output (-1.3%)
The British GDP is estimated to have increased by just 0.1% in 2023, compared to 2022
UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said that high inflation remains the single biggest barrier to growth
Inflation has come down markedly in the UK but remains above target and is squeezing household finances; headline CPI reading was at 4% year-on-year in January
GDP per capita contracted by 0.6% in Q4, after a decline of 0.4% in the previous three months, and fell further through each quarter of last year
Over the whole of 2023, seasonally adjusted GDP per head shrank by 0.7%
The recession is likely to be shallow and short-lived; it may not reflect true state of economy which is set for a muted recovery in 2024
UK GDP contracting in both December and Q4 of 2023 was mainly due to persistently high inflation, structural weaknesses in labor market, low productivity growth and adverse weather conditions
Inflation print of January undershot forecasts for a reacceleration; it is expected to fall further potentially easing pressure on UK households
The key indicator to watch is inflation in the services sector which accounts for bulk of UK's economic activity, employment and reflects strength of wage growth and consumer demand crucial for recovery
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(50%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, it uses the term 'technical recession' which has no official definition and can be misleading to readers who may not understand what this means. Secondly, the article states that two consecutive quarters of negative growth is widely considered a technical recession but fails to mention that there are different definitions for a recession depending on the source. Thirdly, the article quotes experts stating that inflation is hindering economic growth and stymieing interest rates without providing any evidence or data to support this claim. Lastly, the article uses sensationalist language such as 'slipped into technical recession' which may create fear in readers without providing a clear understanding of what this means.
The use of the term 'technical recession' is deceptive because it has no official definition and can be misleading to readers who may not understand what this means.
Fallacies
(70%)
The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the Office for National Statistics and economists polled by Reuters as sources of information. However, these sources are not necessarily reliable or unbiased. Additionally, the author uses inflammatory rhetoric when describing high inflation as a barrier to growth and squeezing household finances.
The Office for National Statistics said U.K. gross domestic product shrank by 0.3% in the final three months of the year
Economists polled by Reuters had produced a consensus forecast of -0.1% for the October to December period
High inflation remains 'the single biggest barrier to growth'
Bias
(80%)
The article reports that the UK economy slipped into a technical recession in the final quarter of last year. The author uses quotes from experts to explain why this is happening and what it means for the future. However, there are some examples of bias present in these quotes.
Economists polled by Reuters had produced a consensus forecast of -0.1% for the October to December period.
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
The author of the article has a conflict of interest with Neil Birrell as they are both affiliated with the Bank of England.
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
The author has a conflict of interest on the topic of UK economy as they are reporting for CNBC which is a financial news network and may have vested interests in the performance of the UK economy.
The United Kingdom has slipped into recession just months ahead of a general election, official figures showed Thursday.
Gross domestic product fell 0.3% in the final three months of 2023, following a 0.1% contraction in the July-to-September period.
A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(50%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, it states that the UK has fallen into recession when technically a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. However, this definition does not apply to all countries and economies. Secondly, the article quotes Liz McKeown stating that manufacturing was one of the biggest drags on growth which contradicts her statement earlier in the same paragraph where she states that increases in hotels and rentals of vehicles and machinery partially offset these decreases. Thirdly, while it is true that several economists have characterized the economy as stagnant over the past year, this does not necessarily mean that there was no economic growth during this time period.
The article states that GDP fell 0.3% in Q4 of 2023 which implies a recession when technically it is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. However, the definition does not apply to all countries and economies.
Fallacies
(70%)
The article contains several logical fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the Office for National Statistics (ONS) as a source of information without providing any context or explanation of their expertise or methodology. This makes it difficult for readers to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of the data presented in the article.
The ONS estimates that UK GDP increased by 0.1% in 2023.
Bias
(85%)
The article reports that the United Kingdom has slipped into recession just months ahead of a general election. The author uses language such as 'derailing' and 'stagnant' to portray the economy in a negative light. Additionally, the use of phrases like 'mild recession', which may be seen as downplaying or minimizing the severity of the situation, could also be considered biased.
All the main sectors fell on the quarter, with manufacturing, construction and wholesale being the biggest drags on growth
Neither party has fully admitted the fiscal reality
The United Kingdom has slipped into recession just months ahead of a general election
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
The author of the article has a conflict of interest on several topics related to the recession in Britain. The Office for National Statistics is responsible for tracking and reporting economic data, including GDP growth rates. However, it appears that Hanna Ziady may have financial ties with companies or individuals who are affected by these reports.
Hannah Slaughter is a senior economist at the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), which has been critical of government economic policies in recent years. The IFS receives funding from various sources, including charities and foundations that may have political or ideological agendas.
Samuel Tombs is an economics editor for Bloomberg News, a financial news organization that covers the global economy. It's possible that Hanna Ziady has professional affiliations with companies or individuals who are covered by Bloomberg News.
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
The author has a conflict of interest on the topic of recession as they are reporting for CNN which is owned by AT&T. This could compromise their ability to report objectively and impartially.
The UK economy shrank by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2023
UK GDP shrank by 0.1% in July-September period
All three main sectors of the economy contracted in Q4: services (-0.2%), production (-1%) and construction output (-1.3%)
The British GDP is estimated to have increased by just 0.7% in 2023, compared to 2022
Inflation has come down markedly in the UK but remains above target and is squeezing household finances; headline CPI reading was at 4% year-on-year in January
GDP per capita contracted by 1.5% in Q4, after a decline of 0.9% in the previous three months, and fell further through each quarter of last year
Over the whole of 2023, seasonally adjusted GDP per head shrank by -1.8%
The recession is likely to be shallow and short-lived; it may not reflect true state of economy which is set for a muted recovery in 2024
UK GDP contracting in both December and Q4 of 2023 was mainly due to persistently high inflation, structural weaknesses in labor market, low productivity growth and adverse weather conditions
Inflation print of January undershot forecasts for a reacceleration; it is expected to fall further potentially easing pressure on UK households
The key indicator to watch is inflation in the services sector which accounts for bulk of UK's economic activity, employment and reflects strength of wage growth and consumer demand crucial for recovery
Accuracy
The British GDP is estimated to have increased by just 0.1% in 2023, compared to 2022
GDP per capita contracted by 0.6% in Q4, after a decline of 0.4% in the previous three months, and fell further through each quarter of last year
Over the whole of 2023, seasonally adjusted GDP per head shrank by 0.7%
Deception
(50%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author claims that Britain's economy shrank by 0.3% from October to December when it actually contracted by only 0.1%. This discrepancy suggests a deliberate attempt to exaggerate the severity of the recession and make it seem worse than it is.
The article states that weak retail sales, a fall in restaurant and other food services, and a drop in housing construction all weighed on Britain's economy. However, there is no evidence provided to support these claims.
The author claims that Britain's economy shrank by 0.3% from October to December when it actually contracted by only 0.1%. This discrepancy suggests a deliberate attempt to exaggerate the severity of the recession and make it seem worse than it is.
Fallacies
(70%)
The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by stating that the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday that Gross domestic product contracted 0.3 percent in October to December from the previous quarter, when the economy shrank by 0.1 percent.
The article contains several fallacies.
Bias
(85%)
The article contains examples of monetary bias and religious bias. The author uses language that depicts the UK economy as being in a bad state due to high inflation and interest rates, which may be seen as an attack on religion or belief system that supports these policies.
> Gross domestic product contracted 0.3 percent in October to December from the previous quarter, when the economy shrank by 0.1 percent
The lackluster economy has still proven challenging for households and businesses contending with relatively high costs and rising loan repayments.
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
The author has a conflict of interest on the topic of UK economy as they are reporting for The New York Times which is known to have financial ties with companies and industries that may be affected by economic policies in the UK.
