UN Halves Estimate of Women and Children Killed in Gaza Conflict: Questions Over Data Accuracy Arise

Gaza, Gaza Strip Palestine, State of
Initial UN estimate: 34,735 people killed, including over 9,500 women and over 14,500 children
Revised estimate by Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health: 7,797 children and 4,959 women among identified fatalities
Total fatalities as of April 30: 24,686 people killed
UN halves estimate of women and children killed in Gaza conflict
UN Halves Estimate of Women and Children Killed in Gaza Conflict: Questions Over Data Accuracy Arise

In the recent conflict in Gaza, the United Nations (UN) has halved its estimate of women and children killed, prompting questions over data accuracy. The UN initially claimed 34,735 people had been killed in Gaza, including over 9,500 women and over 14,500 children. However, the revised estimate provided by the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health states that there are now only 7,797 children and 4,959 women among the identified fatalities. The new figures also show that a total of 24,686 people had been killed in Gaza as of April 30, with 10,006 men and 1,924 elderly among them. Critics have accused the Gazan authorities of manipulating the data provided on fatalities. The UN has acknowledged that it has not been able to independently verify the figures due to the ongoing conflict and high number of fatalities.

The revised estimates were first reported by The Jerusalem Post and come after months of accusations from leading statisticians that the numbers produced by Gazan authorities cannot be accurate. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy released a report in January highlighting major discrepancies in the fatality reports, which it attributed to manipulation. Professor Abraham Wyner also told Tablet Magazine that the rate of deaths was unnatural and climbed far too regularly, stating that in war, the intensity of deaths should be irregular as the conflict's intensity is irregular. The UN has emphasized that its data comes from the Gaza Ministry of Health and will verify these figures to the extent possible when conditions permit.



Confidence

80%

Doubts
  • How can we verify these figures when conditions permit?
  • Is the data provided by Gazan authorities accurate?
  • Why did the UN initially overestimate fatalities?

Sources

95%

  • Unique Points
    • The United Nations reduced estimates for the number of women and children killed during Israel’s war in Gaza by nearly half.
    • , Of the initially reported 34,735 deaths, more than 9,500 were women and more than 14,500 were children.
    • In updated data published on May 8, the UN significantly reduced the figures to 4,959 women and 7,797 children among the reportedly killed in Gaza.
    • The UN cites data from the Gaza Ministry of Health for producing casualty figures.
    • The documentation process of casualties’ full identification details is ongoing at the Gazan Health Ministry.
  • Accuracy
    • Of the initially reported 34,735 deaths, more than 9,500 were women and more than 14,500 were children.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (85%)
    The article reports on the United Nations reducing estimates for the number of women and children killed during Israel's war in Gaza by nearly half. The UN obtains its data from the Gaza Ministry of Health, which is controlled by Hamas. The article states that Hamas lacks details for more than 11,000 casualties and that the UN has been unable to independently verify the figures due to the prevailing situation on the ground. This constitutes an Appeal to Authority fallacy as the UN is relying on information from a potentially biased source, Hamas. Additionally, there are Dichotomous Depictions in this article as it presents a stark contrast between Hamas' initial reports of women and children being the main casualties and the revised estimates from the UN.
    • ]The UN reduced estimates for the number of women and children killed during Israel's war in Gaza by nearly half[.
  • Bias (95%)
    The article reports on the United Nations reducing estimates for the number of women and children killed during Israel's war in Gaza by nearly half. The UN obtains its data from the Gaza Ministry of Health, which is controlled by Hamas. The article mentions that Hamas has lacked details for over 11,000 casualties and that the UN teams have been unable to independently verify the figures due to the prevailing situation on the ground. The article also states that Israeli officials have long disputed the death figures reported by Hamas, including the share of women and children killed during the war. This suggests a potential for bias in favor of Hamas in reporting casualty figures.
    • Israeli officials have long disputed the death figures reported by Hamas, including the share of women and children killed during the war[.
      • The UN obtains its data from the Gaza Ministry of Health, controlled by Hamas[.
        • ]The UN reduced estimates for the number of women and children killed during Israel's war in Gaza by nearly half[.
        • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication

        98%

        • Unique Points
          • Gaza’s Hamas-run ministry of health revised down the number of women and children confirmed killed in the conflict in the coastal strip.
          • According to Hamas ministry, 7,797 children are confirmed killed instead of previously recorded 14,500.
          • Confirmed fatalities among women account for 4,959 deaths rather than the previously recorded 9,500.
        • Accuracy
          • The number of women and children confirmed killed in the conflict is 12,756 according to Gaza ministry of health.
          • The UN initially reported over 9,500 women and over 14,500 children killed.
          • Hamas lacks details for more than 11,000 fatalities it claims to have documented.
        • Deception (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Fallacies (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Bias (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication

        98%

        • Unique Points
          • The UN halved its estimate of women and children killed in Gaza.
          • On May 6, the UN reported that over 9,500 women and over 14,500 children had been killed in Gaza. On May 8, the UN reported that there were 4,959 women and 7,797 children among the identified fatalities.
          • The new data from the UN showed that as of April 30, a total of 24,686 people had been killed in Gaza. Of these deaths, 10,006 were men and 1,924 were elderly.
        • Accuracy
          • The UN reported that over 9,500 women and over 14,500 children had been killed in Gaza.
          • Of the initially reported 34,735 deaths, more than 9,500 were women and more than 14,500 were children.
        • Deception (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Fallacies (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Bias (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication

        99%

        • Unique Points
          • The UN revised its estimate of people killed in Gaza during the conflict from 34,844 to 34,735.
          • Hamas-provided figures from the Gaza Ministry of Health match the revised UN estimate.
          • Hamas has acknowledged it cannot identify and provide names for 10,000 of those reportedly killed.
        • Accuracy
          No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
        • Deception (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Fallacies (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Bias (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication