Declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy causing population shift
Global life expectancy projected to reach 77.4 years by 2054
More than half of countries have fertility rate below replacement level
Senior citizens to outnumber children in many countries by 2070s
World population to peak at 10.3 billion by 2080s
According to recent reports by the United Nations, the world population is projected to peak at approximately 10.3 billion people in the 2080s. This represents a significant shift from previous estimates, which suggested that global population would continue to grow beyond this century. The UN's latest projections are based on declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy in many countries around the world.
More than half of all countries have a fertility rate below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman, indicating that their populations will decline in the absence of immigration. Some countries, such as China and South Korea, are projected to experience particularly dramatic population declines in the coming decades. In contrast, rapid population growth is expected in some African countries like Angola, Central African Republic, Congo, Nigeria and Somalia.
By the 2070s, senior citizens (age 65 and up) are forecasted to outnumber children under age 18 in many countries. Globally, life expectancy is also projected to continue rising and reach an average of 77.4 years by 2054.
These demographic shifts have significant implications for global society, including changes in workforce demographics, pension systems, and healthcare needs. They also raise questions about how countries will address the challenges of aging populations and declining birth rates.
The world’s population will continue to grow over the next several decades, reaching a peak of nearly 10.3 billion people in 50 to 60 years.
More than half of all countries have a fertility rate less than the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman.
India’s population is expected to keep increasing through midcentury.
Uganda’s population has grown by nearly 40% since 2013 and is expected to exacerbate issues around consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and other drivers of global warming.
Decades from now, people will be talking about new population changes with the same level of interest as climate change.
India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Nigeria are among the countries that are expected to continue growing through 2054.
In some parts of Africa including Angola, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger and Somalia populations are expected to grow rapidly doubling between 2024 and 2054.
The world’s population will grow older with those 65 and older outnumbering children younger than 18 by 2080.
Globally, life expectancy in 2023 was higher than the pre-pandemic level of five years earlier at 73.2 years and is projected to reach 81.7 years in 2100.
Accuracy
The world's population will continue to grow over the next several decades, reaching a peak of nearly 10.3 billion people in 50 to 60 years.
Global population is expected to gradually decline to 10.2 billion by 2100.
Women are having one child fewer on average than they did in 1990.
More than half of the world’s countries have fallen below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman for population maintenance.
China's population is projected to drop dramatically from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million in 2100.
Women are having fewer children than before and fertility levels are lower in some of the world’s largest countries.
The UN projects that population has already peaked in 63 countries including China, Germany, Japan and Russia. In this group, the total population is projected to decline by 14% over the next 30 years.
In nine of those countries including Angola, Central African Republic, Congo, Nigeria and Somalia the U.N. is projecting very rapid growth with their populations doubling between 2024 and 2054.
By 2080, people aged 65 and older will outnumber children under 18 years of age in some countries.
Accuracy
Global population is expected to shrink during this century.
