Upcoming CPI Report and US Earnings: Market Impact and Expectations

New York, New York, USA United States of America
China stocks have been mixed due to disappointing data and tariff talk in export markets.
Commodity trades saw oil prices edging higher due to strong U.S gasoline demand.
Non-housing services and motor vehicle insurance are predicted to increase in June.
On Thursday, investors will receive the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
The CPI is expected to show headline inflation of 3.1% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month.
The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all closed higher on Wednesday.
U.S earnings season begins with results from Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo, followed by bank results on Friday.
Upcoming CPI Report and US Earnings: Market Impact and Expectations

On Thursday, investors will digest one of the most important data points that will shape future Federal Reserve interest rate policy: June's Consumer Price Index (CPI). The inflation report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show headline inflation of 3.1% over last year and 0.2% over the prior month, in line with recent positive data. These anticipated numbers are not quite as low as May’s, but it would be a good print for the Fed. The economists predict that non-housing services (and motor vehicle insurance) will have increased in June, indicative of the “bumps” path forward when it comes to price stabilization. However, equities in Japan, Australia and China rose ahead of this data release. The S&P 500 surpassed the 5,600 level as stocks closed higher on Wednesday with the broad market index advancing 1.02% to finish at 5,633.91. The technology-heavy Nasdaq added 1.18% to close at 18,647.45, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 429.39 points or 1.09% to reach 39,721.36.

In addition to the US CPI data, traders are also focusing on U.S earnings season which will begin with results from Delta Air Lines and consumer bellwether PepsiCo, followed by bank results on Friday. China stocks have been mixed due to a string of disappointing data and talk of tariffs in its major export markets. The China GDP print is due on Monday, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1% and blue-chip CSI300 climbed 0.4%. Commodity trades also saw oil prices edging higher on signals of strong U.S gasoline demand, with Brent futures rising 35 cents or 0.4% to $85.43 a barrel and U.S crude climbing 36 cents or 0.5% to $82.47 a barrel.

Overall, the market has been buoyed by positive data and expectations of interest rate cuts, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs for six consecutive days. However, traders remain cautious ahead of the US CPI release and other key events in the coming days.



Confidence

85%

Doubts
  • Is the anticipated inflation rate accurate?
  • Will non-housing services and motor vehicle insurance actually increase?

Sources

100%

  • Unique Points
    • Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June is expected to be released on Thursday.
    • Bank of America economists expect June CPI report to be a confidence builder for the Fed.
    • Powell needs more ‘good data’ before being confident that inflation is moving towards its 2% target.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

98%

  • Unique Points
    • S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite set new record-high closes
    • Brian Belski of BMO Capital Markets is bullish on Spotify and considers it the ‘Kleenex of streaming'
    • HubSpot slid in afternoon trading following reports that Alphabet is holding off on plans to buy the company
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (95%)
    Brian Evans and Samantha Subin's article contains some instances of informal fallacies, specifically an appeal to authority in the form of a quote from Brian Belski. However, these instances do not significantly impact the overall content of the article. No formal fallacies were identified.
    • >Brian Belski, chief investment strategist of BMO Capital Markets, is bullish on Spotify as the music streaming service races ahead this year.<
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

97%

  • Unique Points
    • Japan's Nikkei also rose 1% to a record high of 42,426.
    • MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 1% to a two-year high.
    • Taiwan stocks reached a record peak.
    • Australia’s ASX 200 was near its all-time top.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

100%

  • Unique Points
    • Asian equities advanced
    • Global shares reached new highs
    • Rally in the world’s largest tech stocks occurred
    • Equities in Japan, Australia and China rose
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication