Upcoming CPI Report: Anticipated Inflation Rate Drops Slightly, but Core Inflation and Shelter Costs Remain High

Washington D.C., District of Columbia United States of America
Consumer prices expected to rise 0.4% monthly and 3.4% annually in April CPI report
Core inflation anticipated to increase 0.3% monthly and 3.6% annually, above Federal Reserve's target of 2%
Owners' equivalent rent rose by 5.9% annually in March, indicating significant housing cost inflation
Producer price index rose unexpectedly by 0.5% monthly and 2.2% annually in April
Shelter costs, including rents and housing expenses, remain high
Upcoming CPI Report: Anticipated Inflation Rate Drops Slightly, but Core Inflation and Shelter Costs Remain High

WASHINGTON D.C. - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set to be released on Wednesday, is causing a stir in the economic world as many Americans and companies are worried about inflation. The Federal Reserve has kept borrowing costs at historically high levels due to concerns over rising prices, but recent data suggests that inflation may be moderating. Here's what you can expect from the upcoming report.

According to various forecasts, including those from Dow Jones and the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices are expected to have risen by 0.4% on a monthly basis in April, following a similar increase in March. However, the annual inflation rate is projected to show a slight improvement at 3.4%, down from March's reading of 3.5%.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, is anticipated to rise by 0.3% on a monthly basis and by 3.6% on an annual basis, still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Shelter-related costs, including rents and housing costs, are expected to remain high.

The producer price index (PPI), which measures the cost of goods at the wholesale level before they reach consumers, rose by 0.5% in April and accelerated by 2.2% on an annual basis. This unexpected increase has raised concerns about potential upward pressure on consumer prices.

Owners' equivalent rent, a hypothetical measure of what owners think they can get to rent their homes, rose by 5.9% annually in March and remains well above the level consistent with 2% overall inflation. This trend is particularly concerning for the Federal Reserve as it indicates that housing costs continue to be a significant driver of inflation.

The upcoming CPI report will provide valuable insights into the current state of inflation and its potential impact on interest rates. The Federal Reserve has signaled that it will need to see at least three benign core inflation prints before considering easing policy, making this report crucial for investors and economists alike.


Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image
Article Image

Confidence

91%

Doubts
  • Are there any potential errors or inconsistencies in the data provided by Dow Jones and the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics?
  • Is there any indication that food and fuel prices, which are volatile, will significantly impact core inflation in the upcoming report?

Sources

96%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Latest US inflation report may provide clues to future path of prices and interest rates

The Associated Press News Wednesday, 15 May 2024 04:01
  • Unique Points
    • Many Americans refinanced their mortgages at very low rates before the Fed began raising borrowing costs in March 2022, which may be affecting the economy differently than previously.
    • ,
  • Accuracy
    • Consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.4% from March to April.
    • Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is forecasted to slow down to 3.6% from 3.8% in March.
    • Fed Chair Jerome Powell expects inflation to reach the central bank’s 2% target but has weakened confidence in that forecast due to recent price readings.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (90%)
    The article does not contain any formal fallacies or appeals to authority. However, it does present a dichotomous depiction of the state of inflation by framing it as either stuck at an elevated level or resuming a steady decline. This creates a false dilemma for the reader, suggesting that these are the only two possibilities when in reality, inflation could be experiencing more complex fluctuations. Additionally, while core inflation is expected to slow down according to analysts' predictions, this is presented as potentially providing 'some relief', implying that it will alleviate the overall issue of inflation which may not necessarily be the case. Lastly, there are inflammatory rhetorical devices used such as referring to Republican critics' attempts to blame President Biden for high prices as 'trying to derail his re-election bid', which presents a polarized political view rather than a neutral report on the economic situation.
    • Inflation has fallen sharply from 9.1% in the summer of 2022 but is higher now than in June 2023, when it first touched 3%.
    • Republican critics of President Joe Biden have sought to pin the blame for high prices on the president and to use it to try to derail his re-election bid.
    • The Fed’s policymakers have raised their key interest rate to a 23-year high of 5.3% in an effort to quell rising prices.
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

92%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

Here's everything to expect from Wednesday's key report on inflation

CNBC News Jeff Cox Tuesday, 14 May 2024 19:49
  • Unique Points
    • Inflation trends may have gotten less dreary in April, but are still expected to keep the Federal Reserve uncomfortable.
    • The producer price index rose 0.5% in April, nearly double the expectation, and accelerated 2.2% on an annual basis.
    • Owners’ equivalent rent, a hypothetical measure of what owners think they can get to rent their homes, rose 5.9% annually in March and is still well above a level consistent with 2% overall inflation.
  • Accuracy
    • Core measure of inflation, which excludes food and energy, is projected to show a 0.3% monthly gain and an annual rate of 3.6%.
    • Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed hope that inflation will decelerate through the year but acknowledged slow progress and provided further direction that rates aren’t likely to move anytime soon.
    • The producer price index rose 0.5% in April, nearly double the expectation, and accelerated 2.2% on an annual basis, the highest reading in a year.
    • Financial markets have given up hope on an accommodative Fed and reduced expectations for rate cuts from six to two, with the first one unlikely before September.
    • Fed officials had been willing to look through housing costs when considering policy but continued stickiness in prices could change that.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (75%)
    The article contains a few inflammatory rhetorical statements and appeals to authority but no formal or informal fallacies. The author references the Federal Reserve's expectations and quotes Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which could be seen as an appeal to authority. Additionally, the author uses inflammatory language such as 'higher-than-expected readings' and 'sour note' to describe economic data. However, these do not meet the criteria for formal or informal fallacies.
    • higher-than-expected readings
    • sour note
    • The producer price index rose 0.5% in April, nearly double the expectation
    • It's very important for the Fed not to be behind the curve on this.
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

94%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

All Eyes on CPI: The Bloomberg Open, Americas Edition

Bloomberg News Now Marc Perrier Wednesday, 15 May 2024 12:25
  • Unique Points
    • Petrobras' CEO has been fired.
  • Accuracy
    • Markets and Fed watchers await the US CPI report.
    • The US government will release the latest monthly inflation report on Wednesday.
    • Petrobras’ CEO has been fired.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

94%

The overall score is a weighted number that takes into account conflict of interest, bias, deception and other practices that undermine the credibility of the source. It is calculated as:
(Site Conflicts Of Interest + Author Conflicts Of Interest) / 2.0 * 0.2 + ArticleBiasScore * 0.20 + UniquePointsScore * 0.05 + DeceptionScore * 0.20 + ReadabilityScore * 0.05 + FallacyScore * 0.20

A score that takes into consideration the content for flow, interruptions with ads, and overt search engine optimization techniques that makes the content hard to understand

An Inflation Test Looms Over the Economy and the Election

The Name Of The NZ Prefix. I PWA NZI.P.Was Dropped. Andrew Ross Monday, 13 May 2024 11:19
  • Unique Points
    • The Consumer Price Index report is set to be published on Wednesday.
    • Consumers and companies are worried about inflation.
  • Accuracy
    • Investors and the Fed are closely watching the Consumer Price Index report for signs of inflation moving closer to its 2 percent target.
    • Economists forecast that April’s Consumer Price Index report will show that inflation moderated slightly last month.
    • Core C.P.I., which strips out volatile food and fuel prices, is expected to rise by 0.3 percent on a monthly basis.
    • On an annual basis, core C.P.I. is seen rising by 3.6 percent.
    • Shelter inflation, which includes rents and housing costs, is still running hot.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication