Upcoming Solar Storm: Anticipated Auroras from Active Region 3697

Massachusetts, Massachusetts, United States United States of America
Expected interaction between Earth's magnetic field and CMEs from the sunspot group could result in auroras and geomagnetic storming
Previous pass of Active Region 3664 produced a G5-level geomagnetic storm causing issues with precision GPS and crop planting due to disconnection from Earth's magnetic field
Skywatchers eagerly anticipating potential auroras during new moon period
Strongest solar activity in two decades increases likelihood of intense eruptions from the sun's surface
Upcoming solar storm caused by Active Region 3697
Upcoming Solar Storm: Anticipated Auroras from Active Region 3697

In late May 2024, the Earth experienced a series of intense solar storms and auroras caused by a powerful sunspot group named Active Region 3664. This sunspot group, now known as Active Region 3697, is expected to make another approach towards Earth in June. The interaction between Earth's magnetic field and the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from this active region could result in minor to moderate geomagnetic storming and auroral displays.

The sunspot group that caused the historic aurorae in May was one of the strongest on record, with one of the most intense displays occurring on May 10. This event produced X-class solar flares and CMEs that interacted with Earth's magnetic field, resulting in auroras as far south as Jamaica, Mexico, India, South Africa, and Australia.

The sun is currently entering its most active period in two decades. This increased solar activity increases the likelihood of intense eruptions from the sun's surface. The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and NOAA are closely monitoring Active Region 3697 as it rotates back into view.

During its previous pass, Active Region 3664 produced a G5-level geomagnetic storm, the strongest since 2005. This event caused issues with precision GPS used for crop planting in the U.S. and Canada due to the solar wind taking more than 24 hours to stay connected to Earth's magnetic field.

While Active Region 3697 is not as large as it once was, it is still actively flaring and releasing magnetic energy into space. The new moon during this period means skies will be darkest, making any solar storms visible. Skywatchers around the world are eagerly anticipating another potential display of auroras.



Confidence

90%

Doubts
  • The article mentions that the sunspot group is expected to make another approach towards Earth in June, but it does not provide an exact date.
  • The article states that skywatchers are eagerly anticipating potential auroras during the new moon period, but it does not specify which new moon this refers to.

Sources

100%

  • Unique Points
    • A massive cluster of sunspots on the sun produced a strong, long-duration flare on Wednesday morning.
    • The same cluster of sunspots is now back in view of Earth and could cause the northern lights to be visible over parts of the United States.
    • The Space Weather Prediction Center issued a G2-level Geomagnetic Storm Watch in anticipation of material from the coronal mass ejection reaching Earth.
    • Skywatchers in Massachusetts saw beautiful green and pink colors in the night sky three weeks ago when a solar storm erupted from the same cluster of sunspots.
    • Anyone with solar eclipse glasses can safely view the sunspot from which the recent flare erupted as a dark dot on the sun.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

98%

  • Unique Points
    • A solar storm occurred on May 30, 2024
    • The sunspot responsible for the mid-May auroras was the source of this solar storm
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

95%

  • Unique Points
    • Sunspot AR 3697 reappeared on Monday, May 27.
    • AR 3697 immediately let off an X-class solar flare upon reappearance.
    • A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the second X-class flare is expected to enhance Earth’s magnetic field tonight and early tomorrow morning.
    • This may result in a minor to moderate geomagnetic storm (G1 to G2), potentially causing stronger-than-average aurorae, though these are unlikely to be visible at low latitudes.
    • AR 3697 will sit just right of the Sun’s center from June 4-6, increasing the likelihood of eruptions being directed towards Earth.
    • The new moon during this period means skies will be darkest and any solar storms visible.
    • AR 3697 has been less active since its G5 level storm in May and currently produces fewer X-class flares.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (80%)
    The article uses emotional manipulation by creating a sense of excitement and anticipation for potential aurorae in June. The author also engages in selective reporting by only mentioning the potential for strong aurorae without disclosing that the sunspot is currently less active than it was during the May event. Additionally, there is a lie by omission as the article does not mention that AR 3697 has been producing fewer X-class flares since its last major eruption.
    • What we do know, however, is that the sunspot has been less active since it gave us a G5 level storm a few weeks ago.
    • The old chum is, of course, none other than AR 3664: the huge sunspot responsible for May’s incredible light shows.
    • If there is to be a repeat of last month’s incredible celestial performance, then, it’ll almost certainly take place between next Tuesday and Thursday.
  • Fallacies (95%)
    The author uses personification and anthropomorphism when referring to the sunspot as a 'resurrected Tolkienesque wizard' and 'old chum'. This is an example of a fallacy called Anthropomorphism. The author also uses exaggerated language when describing the sunspot as a 'moody region' and AR 3697 as a 'solar behemoth'. This is an example of Amplification or Hyperbole.
    • ]The sunspot is still firing off X-class flares.[
    • Like a resurrected Tolkienesque wizard, the solar behemoth has taken on a new title as it returns from the abyss, and shall henceforth be known as AR 3697.[
    • It's therefore pretty unlikely that we'll get anything as strong or as widespread as we did then, although the fact that AR 3697 is clearly still capable of generating X-class flares means we can't rule anything out.[
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

99%

  • Unique Points
    • The Sun produced the most intense geomagnetic storms in 20 years and Northern Lights as far south as the southern U.S. in May 2024.
    • Sunspot regions 3663 and 3664, which caused G5-level geomagnetic storms in mid-May, are back but with new names: old region 3663 is now 3691, and old region 3664 is now 3697.
    • These two sunspot regions are unusual because they survived the Sun's full rotation and continue to produce strong flares.
    • The G5-level Geomagnetic Storm Watch issued by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in May was the first since 2005.
    • During May's G5 geomagnetic storm, the solar wind took more than 24 hours to stay connected to Earth's magnetic field. This caused issues with precision GPS used for crop planting in the U.S. and Canada.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

89%

  • Unique Points
    • A sunspot group, now named Active Region 3697, that caused intense solar storms and northern lights in late May is rotating back into view.
    • One of the strongest aurora displays in over 500 years occurred on May 10 due to the interaction between Earth’s magnetic field and the CME from Active Region 3664.
    • Active Region 3697 is expected to sideswipe Earth again, potentially causing minor to moderate geomagnetic storming and auroral displays.
    • The sun is entering its most active period in two decades, increasing the likelihood of intense solar activity and eruptions from its surface.
  • Accuracy
    • The same cluster of sunspots is now back in view of Earth and could cause the northern lights to be visible over parts of the United States.
    • AR 3697 immediately let off an X-class solar flare upon reappearance.
  • Deception (50%)
    The article contains editorializing and sensationalism. The author uses phrases like 'most intense in decades', 'colossal sunspot group', 'strongest aurora displays in 500 years' to exaggerate the significance of the sunspot and solar storm. The author also states that there will probably be more viewing opportunities over the next year or two, implying that this is a rare event when it may not be.
    • NASA said it was among the strongest aurora displays in 500 years.
    • It’s been 2½ weeks since a once-in-a-generation display of auroras, or northern and southern lights, visited both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
    • Several shortwave radio blackouts affected high-frequency signals on Earth.
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication