Disengaged Voters in the 2024 Presidential Race: A Crucial Demographic for Both Biden and Trump

New York, New York, USA United States of America
Biden needs to address economic concerns to win disengaged voters back.
Disengaged voters view the economy as poor or fair compared to regular voters.
Disengaged voters, who have historically infrequent voting records, could decide the election's outcome.
Joe Perez, a disengaged voter from Las Vegas, grew up leaning Republican but supports abortion rights and was turned off by the Capitol rioters. He is now considering Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s candidacy.
The 2024 presidential race is a tight contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Disengaged Voters in the 2024 Presidential Race: A Crucial Demographic for Both Biden and Trump

The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be a tight contest between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. While Biden has been leading among registered voters, it is the disengaged voters who could potentially swing the election's outcome. According to recent polls, Trump has gained support from historically disengaged voters, many of whom hail from traditionally Democratic communities.

One such voter is Joe Perez, a 22-year-old Hispanic man from Las Vegas who grew up leaning Republican but supports abortion rights and was turned off by the Capitol rioters on Jan. 6, 2021. Perez, who voted for Trump in 2020, is now intrigued by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s candidacy.

Disengaged voters like Perez are becoming increasingly important in the political landscape as they could decide the election's outcome. These voters are historically infrequent and often overlooked, but their impact could be significant in a close race.

The economy is a major concern for disengaged voters, with many viewing it as poor or fair compared to those who vote regularly. Biden will need to address this issue if he hopes to win these voters back.

Trump's current polling leads are being fueled by disengaged voters, but their support is not guaranteed. These voters could eventually support Biden or stay at home, making them a crucial demographic for both candidates to court.

The 2024 election will be fought on different terrain than the 2020 contest, and reaching these disengaged voters in a changed media environment will be a challenge for President Biden. However, with the right messaging and outreach efforts, he may still have a chance to win them over.



Confidence

85%

Doubts
  • Joe Perez's views on other issues besides abortion rights and the Capitol riot are not mentioned.
  • The article mentions 'recent polls' but no specific poll data is provided.

Sources

94%

  • Unique Points
    • Joe Perez is a 22-year-old Hispanic man from Las Vegas who grew up leaning Republican but supports abortion rights and was turned off by the Capitol rioters on Jan. 6, 2021.
    • Joe Perez, who supported Donald J. Trump in 2020, is now intrigued by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
    • Former President Donald J. Trump’s current polling leads are being fueled by historically disengaged voters, many of whom hail from traditionally Democratic communities.
  • Accuracy
    • Disengaged voters who do cast ballots could make the difference in an inevitably close race.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (95%)
    The article contains an appeal to apathy from Joe Perez when he says 'I'm not trying to follow that anymore. I'm just going to have to roll with the punches, because I don't think I'm going to make a difference.' This is an example of the fallacy called 'Appeal to Irrelevance'. The author is using Perez's statement as evidence that politically disengaged voters could be important in the 2024 race, but Perez's statement itself is irrelevant to this conclusion.
    • I'm not trying to follow that anymore. I'm just going to have to roll with the punches, because I don't think I'm going to make a difference.
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

100%

  • Unique Points
    • President Joe Biden’s reelection chances could rest on the support of irregular and disengaged voters.
    • Trump had a seven-point advantage over Biden among ‘irregular voters’ for the 2024 contest in a New York Times/Siena College poll.
    • Many irregular voters could eventually support Biden or stay at home.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

94%

Don’t Sleep on the Swing Voter

MSNBC News Tuesday, 28 May 2024 16:36
  • Unique Points
    • Joe Biden delivered a commencement speech at Morehouse College on May 22nd, 2023.
    • Biden spoke about the continuing struggles of young black men in America during the speech.
    • He reached out to students protesting the war in Gaza and took their concerns seriously.
    • Claire McCaskill and Jennifer Palmieri discussed the importance of swing voters for Biden’s 2024 re-election bid.
  • Accuracy
    • ][article.facts[0]] Joe Biden delivered a commencement speech at Morehouse College on May 22nd, 2023.[//
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

91%

  • Unique Points
    • Joseph Perez, a Trump supporter and valet in Las Vegas, has become increasingly disengaged with politics.
    • Politically disengaged Americans are emerging as one of the most unpredictable and complex groups of voters in the 2024 race.
  • Accuracy
    • ]Joseph Perez is a Trump supporter[/ (Buffalo News)] vs. [
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

81%

  • Unique Points
    • Disengaged voters, who don’t follow traditional news and don’t regularly vote, are driving the overall polling results in the US election.
    • Trump’s gains have come primarily from less engaged voters, many of whom are from predominantly Democratic constituencies.
    • Less engaged Democratic-leaning voters are less likely to identify as liberal and more likely to cite the economy as the most important issue.
  • Accuracy
    • Trump’s gains have come primarily from less engaged voters.
    • Biden wins just three-quarters of Democratic-leaning voters who didn’t vote in the 2022 midterm election.
    • Trump has a significant lead among young and nonwhite voters, particularly those who did not vote in the midterms.
  • Deception (30%)
    The article by Nate Cohn contains several instances of deceptive practices. Firstly, the author makes editorializing statements such as 'disengaged voters are driving the overall polling results and the story line about the election.' This is a clear example of selective reporting as it only reports details that support his position while ignoring contradictory evidence. Secondly, Cohn implies that Biden's weakness among disengaged voters is a new phenomenon when he states 'To an extent that hasn’t been true in New York Times/Siena College polling in the last eight years.' This statement is misleading as it fails to mention that this trend has been observed in previous elections as well. Lastly, Cohn makes assumptions about less engaged voters without providing any evidence to support his claims. For instance, he states 'It illustrates the disconnect between Trump’s lead in the polls and Democratic victories in lower-turnout special elections.' However, he does not provide any evidence that these two phenomena are connected.
    • disengaged voters are driving the overall polling results and the story line about the election.
    • To an extent that hasn’t been true in New York Times/Siena College polling in the last eight years.
    • It illustrates the disconnect between Trump’s lead in the polls and Democratic victories in lower-turnout special elections.
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (90%)
    The author expresses a bias towards the disengaged voters and their potential impact on the election results. He repeatedly mentions that these voters are driving the overall polling results and have distinct political views. The author also implies that these voters may not return to their usual partisan leanings, which could affect the outcome of the election.
    • Disengaged voters are driving the overall polling results and the story line about the election.
      • It illustrates the disconnect between Trump’s lead in the polls and Democratic victories in lower-turnout special elections.
        • Less engaged Democratic-leaning voters have distinct political views, and they get their political information from different sources.
          • President Joe Biden has actually led the last three Times/Siena national polls among those who voted in the 2020 election, even as he has trailed among registered voters overall.
          • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
            None Found At Time Of Publication
          • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
            None Found At Time Of Publication