Fed's Rate-Cut Debate Shifts from When to If: Inflation and Labor Market Strength Push Back Expectations

Washington D.C., District of Columbia United States of America
Core PCE price index ran up at a 3.7% annualized rate in the first quarter
Federal Reserve is expected to maintain higher-for-longer stance on interest rates
Investors have scaled back bets on pre-election rate cut due to persistent underlying inflation and enduring strength in the labor market
Latest price data shows that inflation remains stubborn
Fed's Rate-Cut Debate Shifts from When to If: Inflation and Labor Market Strength Push Back Expectations

The Federal Reserve's rate-cut debate is shifting from when to if, as policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady at their meeting on April 30-May 1. Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, has signaled that economic growth remains solid and inflation is starting to turn higher. The core PCE price index ran up at a 3.7% annualized rate in the first quarter, making a July rate cut increasingly unlikely.

Despite this, investors have scaled back their bets on a pre-election rate cut due to persistent underlying inflation and enduring strength in the labor market. The latest price data shows that inflation remains stubborn, and economists expect a robust employment report on Friday.

Powell will address reporters after the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday, offering signals on when rate cuts could take place. However, expectations for rate reductions have been pushed further into 2024.

The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its higher-for-longer stance on interest rates. The latest data suggests that inflation remains a concern and the labor market remains strong, making it unlikely that the Fed will make any significant moves on interest rates in the near future.

Sources:

  1. Bloomberg News:


Confidence

85%

Doubts
  • Is the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates definitive?
  • Is the labor market truly enduring or is there hidden weakness?

Sources

86%

  • Unique Points
    • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to maintain the higher-for-longer stance on interest rates.
    • Expectations for rate reductions have been pushed further into 2024.
  • Accuracy
    • ]The latest price data shows persistent underlying inflation.[
    • The Fed's rate decision is expected to hold borrowing costs at a more than two-decade high.
  • Deception (50%)
    The article contains selective reporting as it only reports details that support the authors' position of Powell keeping interest rates high for longer. It also uses editorializing language such as 'Most Read from Bloomberg' and 'For full analysis, click here'. The authors make no attempt to hide their bias towards the Fed raising interest rates.
    • For full analysis, click here
    • Most Read from Bloomberg
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

98%

  • Unique Points
    • Debate for Federal Reserve shifting from number of interest rate cuts in 2023 to whether to cut them in 2024
    • Policymakers expected to hold rates steady at meeting on Wednesday
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

96%

  • Unique Points
    • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to maintain the higher-for-longer stance on interest rates.
    • The latest price data shows persistent underlying inflation.
  • Accuracy
    • Expectations for rate reductions have been pushed further into 2024.
    • The Fed's rate decision is expected to hold borrowing costs at a more than two-decade high.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

88%

  • Unique Points
    • Joe Biden dealt a blow due to investors scaling back bets on pre-election rate cut
  • Accuracy
    • ] Investors have scaled back bets on pre-election rate cut[
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (0%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

92%

  • Unique Points
    • The Fed meeting takes place on April 30-May 1
    • Investors expect a 2.4% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the end of the April 30-May 1 meeting
    • Economic growth has remained solid while inflation has started to turn higher
    • The core PCE price index ran up at a 3.7% annualized rate in the first quarter
  • Accuracy
    • ]The Fed meeting takes place on April 30-May 1[
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication